White Thanksgivings?

Since 1953, there have been 22 "White Thanksgivings". The last white Thanksgiving was in 2019 when we had more than 3" of snow on the ground. 33% of Thanksgivings have been "White" since 1953, which means there was at least 1" of snow on the ground. 44 out of 66 have been brown or nearly 73% of the time.

Thanksgiving Day Outlook For The Twin Cities

Thanksgiving Day in the Twin Cities is bringing a chill! It's gonna be way colder than what we've been feeling lately, with temperatures creeping up just above freezing. Plus, we've got these north to northwest winds at 10 to 15 mph making it feel more like the 20s. Bundle up, folks!

Feels Like Temps For Minneapolis on Thanksgiving Day

Let's check out the "feels like" temperatures hour by hour in Minneapolis on Thanksgiving Day Thursday. Looks like we'll be hanging out in the 20s for a good chunk of the day, so it's definitely going to be a bit chillier than what we've been used to lately.

Thanksgiving Day Weather Outlook

Heading out for Thanksgiving Day travel? Well, things are looking pretty calm weather-wise around the region. It'll be on the chilly side, with temperatures only reaching the 20s and 30s—about 5 to 10 degrees below the usual for this time of year. But hey, the skies are expected to be mostly sunny to partly cloudy, so travel conditions are shaping up to be A-OK.

Weather Outlook This Week

The weather outlook across the region through the week and weekend ahead shows mostly quiet conditions across the Midwest after Tuesday. It will be mostly dry over that stretch with temperatures staying mild through Wednesday. It gets quite a bit colder by Thursday and through the end of the month with a slight chance of light snow or flurries as we get closer to Sunday.

Precipitation Outlook

The extended precipitation outlook through the end of the month shows very little precipitation across the state. The best chance of precipitation moves in late weekend and into next week. Some of the precipitation could fall in the form of light snow. Stay tuned...

Warmer & Drier Start to November So Far

Despite being chillier than average earlier this month, temperatures have been quite a bit warmer than average as of late. That being said, the average temperature in the Twin Cities is nearly +6.3F above average, which is tied for the 10th warmest start to any November on record. Precipitation running more than -1.09" below average, which is tied for the 5th driest start to any November on record. There hasn't been any snowfall registered at the airport, which is nearly -4.0" below average.

Twin Cities Average Snowfall

The 30-year average from 1993 to 2022 suggests that we typically see around 5.5" of snow during the month of November. The snowiest month tends to be in December with more than a foot falling. The 2nd snowiest month tends to be January with nearly 11" falling in the metro.

Drought Update

Recent heavy rains since late September have helped the drought situation quite a bit across the state. With that being said, nearly 18% of the state is still in a severe drought, which has improved from 34% nearly 3 months ago.

Twin Cities Weather Outlook For Wednesday

The weather outlook for the Twin Cities on Wednesday, November 22nd will be nearly +5F to +10F above average for the mid/end of November. Readings will warm into the mid/upper 40s with breezy southwesterly winds ahead of a cold front that will chill us down quite a bit on Thanksgiving Day.

Meteograms For Minneapolis

Temperatures in the Twin Cities will start in the upper 20s in the morning and will warm into the mid/upper 40s in the afternoon, which will be nearly +5F to +10F above average for this time of the year. Skies will remain dry and sunny with gusty southwesterly winds around 25mph through much of the daylight hours.

Weather Outlook For Wednesday

The weather outlook for Wednesday will warm into the 30s and 40s across the region with a few 50s across southwestern Minnesota and into South Dakota. These temperatures will be nearly +5F to +15F above average with gusty southwesterly winds and dry/sunny skies.

Extended Temperature Outlook For Minneapolis

The 5 day temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows above average temperatures returning on Wednesday with highs approaching 50F ahead of a cold front that will chill things down quite a bit on Thanksgiving Day Thursday and into the weekend.

Extended Weather Outlook For Minneapolis

The extended temperature outlook for Minneapolis shows mostly dry and quiet conditions over the next several days. Wednesday will be the last mild day for a while before we see a string of 30s return Thursday and into next week. There's a slight chance of light snow flurries as we approach the end of the weekend. Stay tuned...

The Extended Outlook Calls For Warmer Temps

According to NOAA's National Blend of Models, we'll have one more milder day on Wednesday with highs approaching 50F before a bigger cooldown into the 30s for several days starting Thanksgiving Day. This cooler weather will likely stick around through the end of the month and into early December.

Atlantic Hurricane Season Winding Down

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st to November 30th. November is typically a very quiet month, but there can still be storms. In fact, last year, Hurricane Nicole made landfall along the east coast of Florida.

Atlantic Outlook

According to NOAA's NHC, there are a couple of waves in the Atlantic Basin that have the potential of tropical development. The one in the Caribbean has a low probability of formation, while the one in the Central Atlantic has a medium chance of formation.

Weather Outlook

A large storm system will continue to slide east through midweek with areas of heavy rain and snow. Meanwhile, weather conditions in the Central US will be quieter with a little snow developing across the Rockies and Central Plains later this week into the weekend ahead. It'll get quite a bit cooler as we approach the end of the week as well.

According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook shows cooler than average temperatures continuing across the Southern and Eastern US through the end of the month. Meanwhile, warmer than average temperatures will develop across the Western US and into the Midwest.

The 8 to 14 Day Precipitation Outlook shows more active weather in place across parts of the Southern tier of the nation. Meanwhile, it looks drier from the High Plains to the Midwest and into the Northeast.

Giving Thanks For A Colder, Quieter Climate

In town for Thanksgiving? Welcome. Yes, it's a bit chilly here in hurricane-free, earthquake-resistant Minnesota, but we just slap on a few more clothes.

Last week I presented the latest climate implications to the Minneapolis Builders and Managers Association (BOMA). Someone asked "Paul, are we more climate-resilient than other areas?" The answer is yes. We are not immune from weather disruptions fueled by a warmer, wetter climate (more flash flooding is top of mind). Climate models suggest the northern tier of the USA will see fewer impacts overall. Florida, the Gulf Coast, Arizona and California? Rising seas, super-sized hurricanes, debilitating drought, bigger wildfires and water shortages? I'm thankful I live in Minnesota.

We may hit 50F today with bright sunshine, before colder air arrives on Thanksgiving. Dry weather lingers into Saturday, but a coating of very light snow is possible Sunday. A nuisance snow.

Pro-tip: it gets cold here, but the arctic fronts aren't as bitter as they were 30-50 years ago.

Extended Forecast

WEDNESDAY: Sunny and pleasant. Winds: SW 10-20. High 48.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Winds: NNW 10-15 Turning SW. Low: 26.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny and brisk. Winds: N 10-20. High 33.

FRIDAY: Chilled sunlight, less wind. Winds: N 7-12. Wake-up: 19. High 30.

SATURDAY: Clouds increase, flurries at night. Winds: SW 5-10. Wake-up: 26. High 33.

SUNDAY: Coating of slush? Slick roads early. Winds: W 10-20. Wake-up: 28. High 36.

MONDAY:A few sunny breaks. Winds: NW 7-12. Wake-up: 26. High: 33.

TUESDAY: Clipper: chance of a rain shower. Winds: W 15-25. Wake-up: 30. High 40.

This Day in Weather History

November 22nd

: Heavy snowfall accumulates over the same areas that were hit two days earlier. Four to seven inches of snowfall are reported across the area. Heavier snowfall occurred during the daylight hours of the 23rd. Snowfall totals of six inches were reported in the Twin Cities, Chanhassen, Stewart, St. James and Redwood Falls.

: Gale-driven snow falls across Minnesota. 45 mph winds are reported over Rochester and Duluth.

Average High/Low for Minneapolis

November 22nd

Average High: 39F (Record: 60F set in 2012)

Average Low: 25F (Record: -6F set in 1880)

Record Rainfall: 0.74" set in 2016

Record Snowfall: 5.5" set in 1898

Sunrise/Sunset Times for Minneapolis

November 22nd

Sunrise: 7:19am

Sunset: 4:38pm

Hours of Daylight: ~9 hours & 19 minutes

Daylight LOST since yesterday: 2 Minutes & 3 Seconds

Daylight LOST since Summer Solstice (June 21st): ~ 6 Hour & 28 Minutes

Moon Phase for November 22nd at Midnight

National High Temps on Wednesday

The weather outlook across the Central US shows cooler temps from the Great Lakes to the Southern US, where highs will range from the 40s to the 50s. Gusty south winds ahead of a cool front with help to boost temperatures to well above average levels across the Plains and Midwest, where readings will be nearly +10F to +15F above average.

National Weather Outlook For Wednesday

The National Weather Outlook on Wednesday shows unsettled weather continuing across the Eastern US with showers and storms in the Southeast. Areas of rain, snow and ice will be possible in the Northeast with another system developing in the Northwest. This next system in the Northwest will be responsible for somewhat rough holiday travel across the Intermountain-West and Plains as we head through the 2nd half of the week.

National Weather Outlook

The National Weather outlook through Thursday shows active weather continuing across the Eastern US, which could make for some pre-Thanksgiving Day travel concerns. There is another developing system that will bring snow to parts of the Rockies and Front Range of the Rockies as we approach Thanksgiving, which could create some travel headaches as well.

Extended Precipitation Outlook

The extended precipitation outlook shows areas of heavier rain across the Eastern US through midweek. There will be some decent snowfall across the Rockies and Front Range of the Rockies as we approach Thanksgiving and beyond.

Extended Snowfall Outlook

According to the ECMWF weather model, areas of snow in the Northeast through Midweek. There will also be another surge of heavy snow across the Rockies and Front Range, which could cause some travel headaches.

Climate Stories

What the U.S.-China Agreement Means for Greenhouse Gas Emissions

"The two nations announced limited steps to address climate change. But even a modest agreement could have far-reaching effects. The climate deal announced by China and the United States on Tuesday shows that the world's two largest emitters agree on the need for more renewables. But whether they can meet their climate targets will depend in large part on how they plan to address fossil fuels. The joint statement — emerging from four days of talks between U.S. climate envoy John Kerry and his Chinese counterpart Xie Zhenhua — signals that the two sides are reengaging ahead of global climate talks in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, this month, despite continued tensions in their bilateral relationship."

See more from Scientific American HERE:

This Fall Is Full of Acorns—Thanks to a 'Mast' Year

"Trees can outsmart animals such as squirrels and birds by synchronizing their seed production. If you have oak trees in your neighborhood, perhaps you've noticed that some years the ground is carpeted with their acorns, and some years there are hardly any. Biologists call this pattern, in which all the oak trees for miles around make either lots of acorns or almost none, "masting." Naturalists have declared this fall a mast year for many trees : Not just oaks, but walnuts, beeches and more are all making tons of nuts all at the same time. Many other types of trees, from familiar North American species such as pines and hickories to the massive dipterocarps of Southeast Asian rainforests, show similar synchronization in seed production. But why and how do trees do it?"

See more from Scientific American HERE:

Last month was by far the world's hottest October on record

"October 2023 was the hottest October on record globally in analyses dating back to 1850, said NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information on November 15. NOAA, NASA , the Japan Meteorological Agency, and the European Copernicus Climate Change Service all rated October 2023 as the warmest October on record, crushing the previous October record by a huge margin. According to NOAA, October global temperatures spiked to a remarkable 1.34 degrees Celsius (2.41°F) above the 20th-century average. Using NASA data, October 2023 was 1.57 degrees Celsius above the temperature of the 1880-1899 period, which is commonly called "preindustrial" (the difference between the 1951-1980 baseline reported on the NASA website and the 1880-1899 period is 0.226°C). This is the fourth-highest departure from average in the NASA database, behind September 2023 (1.70°C), February 2016 (1.59°C), and March 2016 (1.58°C)."

See more from Yale Climate Connections HERE:

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