"Greatest Political Comebacks": Ex-Diplomat Vikas Swarup On Trump's Win
Vikas Swarup, a former Indian diplomat, has hailed Donald Trump's 2024 presidential win as one of the greatest political comebacks in history.
Notably, since 1892, no US President who had lost an election has ever come back to win a non-consecutive second election. In the US presidential election, Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump won a decisive victory over his Democratic rival Kamala Harris. He will be sworn in as the 47th President of the United States, which will be his second term in this post.
Speaking with ANI, Swarup said, "I would say that this is one of the greatest political comebacks in history. Since 1892, no US president who had lost an election has ever come back to win a non-consecutive second election. Donald Trump has done that. And I think the reason for that is the pollsters, which were predicting a very close fight, were consistently underestimating the kind of resonance that Trump's message was having with American voters."
Trump's victory is indeed remarkable, considering the challenges he faced during his presidency and the controversies surrounding his candidacy. His ability to connect with his base and tap into the sentiments of the American people has been a key factor in his success.
"Especially the two eyes on immigration and inflation. Trump was promising better days. He was promising an end to the high grocery prices, to the high home prices. That resonated with voters. And I think his claim that millions of undocumented, illegal aliens were flooding into America, particularly from the southern border. I think that also got to connect with the voters. And that is why we are seeing this very, very decisive victory that Donald Trump has had in the US election," said Swarup.
Swarup also said that India and the US believe in a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific. Hence, there is a convergence of ideas there. "I would here talk about the three Cs. The first C is continuity. Remember, Prime Minister Modi is one of the few world leaders who have continued in that same position since Trump's first term from 2017 to 2021. So from that point of view, there will be familiarity. Trump knows who Prime Minister Modi is. The second C is chemistry. Not only does President Trump know Prime Minister Modi, he has high regard for him. He consistently calls him my very good friend, my very dear friend. We saw that chemistry in the Howdy Modi event in Houston in 2019. We saw it in evidence at the Namaste Trump event in Ahmedabad in 2020. So from that point of view also, it augurs well for the India-US relationship. But the third C is the most important one, and that is convergence. Today, there is complete strategic convergence between India and the US on defence, on technology, on global and regional stability. I think both India and the US believe in a free, open, and inclusive Indo-Pacific," he said.
Swarup also said that Trump is one of the first US Presidents to recognise the strategic threat from China.
"Let's not forget, it was Trump who revived the Quad Mechanism. So I expect that the Quad Mechanism will go from strength to strength under President Trump once he takes over in January 2025. And also, I think Trump is one of the first American presidents to recognize the strategic threat from China. So from that point of view also, I think there will be convergence between India and the US," he said.
He told ANI that one can expect much turbulence in the international markets as Trump plans to increase tariffs on imports, and heavier tariffs on Chinese goods.
"On the one hand, we will not expect business as usual. This is not Trump 1.0 and part 2. Trump this time I think is much more sure-footed. I think the kind of advisors that he has around him are people that he believes will be totally and unconditionally loyal to him. And he has a plan in place. So that's the first thing. The second thing is Trump 2.0 will obviously be a disruptor, as he was in the first term as well. So expect a lot of turbulence on international trade, where Trump has already promised to impose tariffs of 10% or more on almost all the countries, and of course, much heavier tariffs on China," he said.
Swarup said that Trump may withdraw from the climate change accord, and he may also review the defence clauses of NATO.
"Trump may withdraw from the climate change accord. So that, I think, will be bad news for the environment. It will be bad news for all the other countries which are grappling with the costs of climate change, or global warming. So I think that is something we need to factor into our equation. And thirdly, on geopolitics, although Trump has said that, you know, NATO people have expressed scepticism whether Trump will be as committed to NATO and to the mutual defense clause of NATO as the Democrats have been, I don't think that Trump will tinker too much with that. And what he will insist on is that the other European countries and the other partners of NATO, they meet the fair share of their defense obligations. There should not be any free ride on the US any longer," he said.
Swarup said that one can expect some work by Trump to stop the conflicts in the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine.
"This was one of his, in fact, campaigning planks that we are headed into World War III, and I'm the only one who can fix it. So from that point of view, I expect movement from him on both those conflicts. On the Russia-Ukraine conflict, I expect he will not be as open to continuing military aid to Ukraine, regardless of military objectives. It may be made much more conditional and probably he will encourage Zelenskyy or maybe even pressure Zelenskyy to accept you know some kind of a compromise solution which either freezes the conflict or at least does not allow active military hostilities to continue for too much longer. Number one on the Israel-Gaza front I expect Netanyahu wanted a Trump victory and he has got that now so I sense that Netanyahu will be much more amenable now to a ceasefire. Trump is the architect of the Abraham Accords. So he has a good equation with UAE, with Saudi Arabia, with many of the Gulf states, and they of course will not have anything to do with Israel unless a ceasefire is in place. So I think that might also encourage a quicker ceasefire than we were seeing under the Democrats so far," he said.
On being asked if India would experience a trade barrier-like situation from Trump, as he may impose some tariffs, Swarup said that one may expect some turbulences on that front. However, Trump may be adviced to not go ahead with such measures as it may encourage de-dollarisation.
"I think Trump has promised to impose some tariffs. He has referred to India as the tariff king. So definitely I expect some turbulence on that front. Whether eventually he decides to, enforce very high tariffs and things, or punitive tariffs, remains to be seen because no country will take it lying down. If you impose tariffs on us, we will impose tariffs on you. And the result will be a trade war which I don't think either side wants. So I hope that Trump will be prevailed upon to be less disruptive on the trade front because the American economy is doing fairly well. It is the fastest-growing G7 economy, growing at 2.8% per annum. So I don't think that there is a lot of economic deadweight that Trump has to deal with. And I think if he succeeds in his plan of cutting taxes, streamlining the bureaucracy, there will still be enough surplus in the US for him not to resort to these punitive tariffs because that might also encourage moves towards de-dollarisation," he said.
Talking about the probable defence cooperation between India and the US during the Trump election, Swarup said that the relationship is supposed to get better, as India was not an issue in the US election.
"India was not an issue in the US election. There is bipartisan consensus in the USA that India is a stable and important partner, and we need to continue the strategic partnership with India. And defense now has become a very integral part of that partnership. We recently signed the SOSA agreement. We already have forward now foundational agreements with the US and the defense part of the relationship has taken off much faster than some of the other elements of the relationship. So I expect under President Trump also that will only continue to increase. I don't see any diminution of the India-US defence partnership," he said.
Upon being asked if Trump would take any action against the Khalistan issue, and atrocities against Hindus in Bangladesh, Swarup said that Indian-Americans constitute a sizable amount of the population, and therefore, Trump would not let such atrocities continue in the name of free speech.
"Trump is very much cognizant of the economic and political weight of the Indo-American community. There are 5.2 million Indo-Americans in the USA. They are the immigrant group which has the highest median income, which has the highest educational attainments. So from that point of view, this is a demographic that both Trump as well as the Democrats were trying to court. And the kind of statements that Trump has made against Hindu phobia and things like that I think fit into that rhetoric. On the other hand, hand I don't think he is going to allow Khalistani sympathizers like Guru Patwan Singh Pannu to make the kind of open threats that they have been making under the guise of free speech. I think that stops with Trump. He will not give that much of free play to the Khalistani elements to make open threats which definitely cannot be construed as free speech," he said.
