Harris won Minnesota, Trump surpassed 2020 in 84 of 87 counties

DULUTH — Vice President Kamala Harris may have won Minnesota by more than 4 percentage points Tuesday, but President-elect Donald Trump performed better than he did four years ago when President Joe Biden defeated him in the state by more than seven points.

This year, nearly every county in the state saw a margin shift that favored Trump. Only three of the state's 87 counties saw a margin shift favoring Democrats: Lincoln County in southwestern Minnesota and Cook and Lake counties in northeastern Minnesota. And those were shifts to the left of less than one point.

That reflects a national trend. More than 90% of counties with "nearly complete results" shifted toward Trump, according to the New York Times.

But does this mark a big shift in voter alliances? Cindy Rugeley, associate professor of political science at the University of Minnesota Duluth, isn't so sure.

"I don't know how much you can read into it, as far as a shift going more conservative than it has historically," Rugeley said. "It does kind of show that Minnesota's not afraid to vote for Republicans."

While Minnesota has voted for a Democrat for president every election cycle since 1976, the margin varies, especially the three cycles with Trump on the ballet.

Trump's first successful presidential run in 2016 saw him narrowly lose the state to Democrat Hillary Clinton by 1.5 points or 45,000 votes.

Then, in 2020, Biden defeated Trump in the state by seven points.

Now, four years later, prices are significantly higher than they were four years ago, even though inflation has cooled.

Frustration over the economy, among other factors, may have driven a backlash, Rugeley said. "When you've got a two-party system, and you want change, there's only one other party to go to," she said.

The margin shift played out in other races, too.

U.S. Rep. Pete Stauber, a Republican from Hermantown, defeated former state Rep. Jen Schultz, a Democrat from Duluth, by 16 points, improving his margin by 1.5 points since the two first ran against each other in 2022.

Even U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar, a Democrat who has easily won reelection four times, saw her margin of victory slip below 20 points for the first time. She defeated former professional basketball player Royce White, a Republican, by 15.7 points.