Here's how the Cowboys earn their second win vs. a plus-.500 team
The Dallas Cowboys have become a juggernaut at AT&T Stadium under head coach Mike McCarthy and quarterback Dak Prescott. This year, they have won their five home games by a combined score of 205 to 60, have never scored under 30 points, have three games scoring over 40, and have never allowed more than 17. Prescott hasn’t even attempted 20 fourth-quarter passes total in those five contests.
Dallas utilized the bye week well, switching the offensive game plan to feature pre-snap motion and shifts. They were at the bottom of the league before the bye week and have been in the middle of the pack since. They used shift or motion on a season-high 76% of their snaps versus the Washington Commanders.
Prescott has thrown for 312 yards per game in his last six outings while completing over 70% of his passes. He has 18 touchdown passes to only two interceptions and a passer rating of 122.6. He has now thrown 16 touchdowns on vertical routes, and 14 of those have been since Week 8. There isn’t a quarterback playing at that level besides him.
The Seattle Seahawks will be the first team since the 1-0 New York Jets in the Cowboys home opener to come in with an above-.500 record, at 6-5. This game will test Dallas’ home dominance more than any this season. The Cowboys will need to accomplish these specific tasks to keep the Seahawks from pulling off a significant upset at AT&T Stadium.
How they win: Dak Prescott must continue to improve his MVP case
The quarterback might be playing his position better than any other in the league. Many will make the season about how he plays once he gets to the postseason, but it is important not to overlook what he has pulled off in his first season in the McCarthy offense.
Through 11 games, Prescott has thrown for 2,935 yards, with 23 passing touchdowns and only six interceptions. He is completing 70% of his passes and is doing so while chucking the ball down field. He is averaging 11.42 yards per completion. Against the Commanders, Prescott had an average depth of target (ADOT) of 14.7, the highest of any QB this season. He was 7-for-12 on vertical routes for 189 yards and three scores. “Dink and Dak” was a click-bait narrative that is used occasionally to imply that he didn’t throw the ball down field but is a falsehood because he is one of the best deep ball throwers in the league now.
Seattle has an excellent group in their secondary, but they haven’t played up to their talent this season. Rookie corner Devon Witherspoon has lived up to his top-five pick standing. He can cover, tackle, and take the ball away. Riq Woolen was a phenom as a fifth-round rookie last season himself. The safety tandem of Quandre Diggs and Jamal Adams is one of the most talented in the league. The talent is there, but the team ranks 20th in passing yards allowed. They are 19th in completion percentage, 16th in passing rating, and 15th in touchdowns allowed.
The defense of the Seahawks is one that can be torched by good quarterback play. Prescott has to continue his excellent play and he must continue to keep improving his MVP candidacy if the team wants another victory heading into their match up with the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 13.
How they lose: Let the receivers for the Seahawks have a breakout
The Seahawks had many people claiming their receiving core was the best group of three receivers in the league going into season. DK Metcalf was the big-bodied playmaker. Tyler Lockett has been a great option underneath, but with an excellent ability to hit deep plays off play-action. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle’s first-round receiver, was thought to be the best receiver in his class by multiple scouts. After a resurgence from Geno Smith last year, this offense looked to be a high-ranking powerhouse in 2023, but it hasn’t come together for them.
Metcalf is the team leader with 678 yards, Lockett is at 575, and Smith-Njigba has 406. By comparison, Lamb is already over 1,000 yards receiving and the Cowboys top three receivers are just under 2,000 yards combined. This game can’t be the breakout game for that receiving corps if Dallas wants to remain undefeated at home.
The defense in Dallas hasn’t been susceptible to big plays overall, but the Washington Commanders might have figured something out. On the season the Cowboys have allowed the lowest number of big plays on defense, but the Commanders hit five separate plays of over 15 yards against on third down alone. Seattle’s record is 6-5 and is slipping in the playoff standings, so they should be going all-out this week.
If the Cowboys can keep the talented receivers of Seattle from having their breakout games against them, then it will be difficult for the Seahawks to keep up with how often Dallas scores at home. The play of Metcalf, Lockett, and Smith-Njigba will likely determine if this is another home blowout for Dallas, or if they will be on upset alert.
How they win: Get pressure up the middle
The Seahawk offensive line isn’t great at any position, but their tackles are better than their guards. Charles Cross and Stone Forsythe are going to struggle to block Demarcus Lawrence, Sam Williams, Micah Parsons and every other weapon Dallas has at their edge rush spot just like everyone else, but the interior could be an enormous issue for Seattle.
Damien Lewis is their top guard with a PFF grade of 59.3 overall. He has allowed four sacks and has been penalized three times. His counterparts at right guard have been worse. allowing five sacks and committing nine penalties between Phil Haynes and Anthony Bradford. Evan Brown has a PFF grade of 54 at center, allowing five sacks and three penalties. They have a tough night ahead of them with everything Dallas can attack with inside.
Dan Quinn will rotate edge rushers like Lawrence, Dorance Armstrong, or Williams inside regularly, with Parsons inside as well, but he even stands up to blitz up the middle. Mazi Smith and Jonathan Hankins have added a couple sacks lately even from their one-technique position, but the real issue is Osa Odighizuwa.
Odighizuwa is a top-five run defender this season, according to PFF, with a grade of 77.9 and 20 stops. In his third season he is making another leap as a complete defensive tackle, but his strength is as a pass rusher. He has three sacks, five QB hits, 23 hurries, and 31 pressures with a PFF pass-rush grade of 79.2. Odighizuwa is hot right now coming off his best game. He had seven pressures, six hurries, and a QB hit against the Commanders. Dallas has to exploit this mismatch inside to help get another home blowout Thursday night.
How to lose: The offensive line takes a step back
In Week 9, the play of Terence Steele helped end the chances of Dallas pulling an upset over the Philadelphia Eagles. In 57 pass blocking snaps he allowed 12 pressures, seven hurries and four sacks. The last one basically ending the game. He received a pass-blocking grade of only 15. A single player can’t hurt your team much more than that.
Going into that contest, the starting five offensive line combo of Tyron Smith, Tyler Smith, Tyler Biadasz, Zack Martin, and Steele had a total of 92 snaps together, 43rd ranked in the NFL . They didn’t have any continuity and it showed against that tough Philly defensive line. The OL allowed five sacks and could only muster 3.5 yards per rush attempt. That simply isn’t good enough against a team the caliber of Philadelphia.
The good news is that line now has 284 snaps together, which ranks 16th, and the unit continues to improve. Tyron Smith is the only left tackle to play 400 or more snaps and only allowed six pressures or fewer. Since the Eagles game, he has allowed just a single pressure in 129 pass-blocking snaps. Left guard Tyler Smith has played at an All-Pro level and has an overall PFF grade of 78 and a run-blocking grade of 89.7. Martin hasn’t been his all-world self, but is still one of the best guards in the league.
The key is that the two weaker spots in the line, Steele and Biadasz, have not wrecked any games with poor play since the loss to the Eagles. If that continues, and the three studs can remain as healthy as possible, the team won’t only be able to hang another 40 on the board against Seattle, but they will be legit Super Bowl contenders.
You can find Mike Crum on Twitter or YouTube on the Across the Cowboys Podcast.
