House election forecast flips to GOP as Democrats hold on to their last hope
After an election night collapse in both the presidential election and key Senate races, Democrats are looking to the House as their last hope. As it stands, the lower chamber is too close to call, though it's leaning towards Republican control. The battle for the House majority is likely to come down to California, where it could take days — or longer — to count all the votes.
In the House , Democrats posted good results in New York , where they lost key seats in 2022, flipping the state's 22nd District, where Democrat John Mannion defeated Rep. Brandon Williams, and 19th District, where Democrat Josh Riley unseated Rep. Marc Molinaro.
Democrats also held on in the 18th District, where Rep. Pat Ryan won re-election, and appear on track to flip the Fourth District, where Democrat Laura Gillen is poised to unseat Rep. Anthony D'Esposito, though the race there still has not been called. Likewise, Democrats fell short in their attempts to flip Rep. Nick LaLota's seat in New York's First District on Long Island, and Rep. Mike Lawler's seat in the state's 17th District in the Hudson Valley.
As of Wednesday morning, Republicans had won 198 House seats while Democrats won 180 seats. The only thing clear about the results at this point are that it will be a slim majority, whichever party wins, and that the full results won't be apparent until all the races in California are called.
California was home to 10 competitive races in 2024, with five of them being tossups — all of which had Republican incumbents. While the Associated Press has not called any of the five tossup races yet, GOP candidates had an advantage in all five: Rep. John Duarte in the 13th, Rep. David Valadao in the 22nd, Rep. Mike Garcia in the 27th, Rep. Ken Calvert in the 41st and Rep. Michelle Steel in the 45th, on Wednesday morning. Much of the vote is yet to be counted.
Republicans did get a good sign Wednesday morning, however, when California's Third District was called for incumbent Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley. The Third District was seen as competitive, but unlikely to flip unless Democrats were positioned to outperform expectations in the state. As of Wednesday morning, Republicans took 58% of the vote in the district with 60% reporting.
Liberty Vittert, the lead data scientist at Decision Desk HQ, told Salon that this call shifted their House projection in favor of Republicans, who now have an 80% chance of winning the lower chamber in her assessment.
Outside of the House battlegrounds in New York and California, Republicans also appear to have performed well in both of Pennsylvania's most closely watched races in the Seventh and Eight Districts. Republicans Ryan Mackenzie and Robert Bresnahan enjoy slight advantages over Rep. Susan Wild and Rep. Matt Cartwright in their races, with 99% reporting in both races. The GOP incumbent, Rep. Scott Perry, was also ahead in the tossup 10th District, though the race has not yet been called.
In Michigan, Democrats managed to hold onto the Eighth District, where Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet won, as well as the Third District, where Rep. Hillary Scholten won. Republicans managed to flip the competitive Seventh District, where Republican Tom Barrett was victorious, and lead in the 10th District, where Rep. John James appears likely to hold on, though the race has not yet been called.
As of Wednesday morning, Republicans also appeared on track to win in both of Wisconsin's competitive districts, the First and the Third, where Rep. Bryan Steil and Rep. Derrick Van Orden are poised to keep their seats. Democrats, meanwhile, appear to be holding on in North Carolina's lone swing district, the First, where Rep. Don Davis leads in the vote total with 99% reporting.
As it stands, the House could be the only check on a Republican agenda. Legislative action would be required for former President Donald Trump to enact some of his key policy proposals like mass deportations and tariffs. A House majority would also give Democrats the leadership positions on key committees, which would give them investigative powers.
