Housing costs and rent up in Fresno, Valley since 2020. Here’s by how much, and where

The average prices to buy a house or rent an apartment in the San Joaquin Valley are at or near their historic high points, putting a tighter squeeze on affordability than before the pandemic.

Prices for homes in the Fresno metropolitan market were calculated at just shy of $400,000 as of June 2024. That's the highest median price in 16 years, according to real estate technology firm Zillow . And it's up by about $124,000 — or almost 46% — since January 2020, less than two months before the first coronavirus cases were reported in the Valley.

"Several factors have contributed to this significant increase," said Gary Carter, board president of the Fresno Association of Realtors . "The Federal Reserve's historically low interest rates during the pandemic period made borrowing cheaper, boosting demand for homes and driving up prices."

Carter said the Fresno market has also seen a shortage of homes available for sale, which, "coupled with increased demand, has exerted upward pressure on prices."

Population growth, remote work trends, and the overall economy are also playing a role in rising home prices, he added.

Home prices and rents in Fresno and the Valley have historically been considerably lower than California's major metropolitan areas, and that remains the case now. For example, median "sold" prices for existing single-family homes across the Valley in June were:

By contrast, prices in Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego and San Jose were about double, or even more, than Valley prices:

What about renting?

Data also indicates that the cost to rent an apartment in the Valley has also soared. Zillow's Observed Rent Index estimates the average apartment rent in the Fresno metro market at $1,591 per month – more than $500 more than January 2020.

In the intervening 4 1/2 years, here are the increased that renters face in Valley markets:

Comparatively, household income across the region has failed to keep up. Median household income in Fresno County grew by 24.6% between 2020 and 2023, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. But that's dwarfed by the 48% increase in average apartment rents. Similar disparities between income gains and rising rents also show up Valleywide, and are larger than the statewide average.

But by comparison, rents in the Valley are far lower than they are in many other areas of the state, such as San Jose at $3,211 per month, San Francisco at $2,850 per month, or a dozen other major markets where the average apartment rent is more than $2,000 per month.

Alex Bentz, an economist with the state Legislative Analyst's Office , noted in an August report that rent prices across California have grown more quickly than wages. Between 2020 and 2024, "rents grew 26%" while hourly wages rose by only 21% over the same period.

"Monthly rents have ... increased significantly in recent years, but not as quickly as monthly payments needed to purchase a home," Bentz wrote in his analysis. "Monthly payments for a two-bedroom home are about $2,000 (71%) more than renting an apartment or home."

Not necessarily 'affordable'

Just because home prices and rents are lower in the Valley than in some other parts of the state doesn't necessarily make them "affordable" for many families, especially with income levels that are typically well below households in some other regions of California.

What does "affordable" mean, anyway? Generally it reflects housing costs – whether payments for a mortgage plus interest, taxes and insurance, or rent plus utilities – amount to 30% or less of a household's gross income. And in the Valley, housing affordability has fallen dramatically since the first quarter of 2020.

In less than five years, for example, the California Association of Realtors quarterly Housing Affordability Index in Fresno County has fallen from 52% in the first quarter of 2020 to 28% by the second quarter of 2024. This means that approximately 28% of households could afford to buy a median-priced home based on prices and household income this year.

In Kern, Kings, Madera, Stanislaus and Tulare counties, the CAR's affordability indices are at or near their lowest levels since the association began tracking it in 1991.

Carter, the Fresno Realtors president, said there are chances that affordability "might improve in the foreseeable future, but several conditions need to be met."

"If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates further, as is anticipated, mortgage rates could decrease, potentially improving affordability," he said. "More homes coming onto the market can help balance supply and demand, which might stabilize or even reduce prices over time."