How has Nick Chubb been performing since his return from knee surgery? Behind the numbers

CLEVELAND, Ohio - The career of Browns star running back Nick Chubb can be summarized as boundary-pushing, both on and off the field.

In college at Georgia, Chubb suffered a devastating knee injury that pundits thought might end his career. Chubb not only returned to the field, but also became a second-round draft pick by the Browns in 2018 and became arguably the premier running back in the NFL.

Chubb escaped the fate of once-elite backs like Todd Gurley and David Johnson, whose careers turned upside-down after one injury.

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Last fall, in Week 2 on that grim night in Pittsburgh, it looked as if maybe this would be the end for Chubb after he took the hit ended his season with another knee injury.

A running back like Chubb was lucky to make it back from one severe knee injury, but two? On the same leg?

This season, while his first three games have been underwhelming — averaging just 2.7 yards per attempt and 38 rushing yards per game — his mere return to the NFL is a remarkable accomplishment.

Chubb himself has spoken about the challenges of returning to full speed and ramping up. These numbers are a far cry from the historical averages Browns fans are used to, but let's see if the advanced stats can paint a clearer picture.

Behind the numbers We can gauge whether Chubb is returning to his old form is by assessing his individual performance trends. With three games under his belt, we can evaluate if he's getting better with each game, or if he's still struggling to find his footing.

To do this, we can create a linear regression model, which mathematically models the correlation between an independent and a dependent variable. In simpler terms, it shows whether there is a relationship between two things — in this case it's Chubb's level of performance and the number of weeks he's played.

NFL Next Gen Stats and Rotowire provide individualized position statistics that capture how well a player is performing independent of the situation around them.

Rushing yards over expected (RYOE) uses advanced player tracking to measure how many yards a RB gains based on the position of every other player on the field.

Yards after contact (YAC) negates the impact of a good or bad offensive line by isolating the running back's production once he's been contacted. This model will also include yards per carry as a baseline and to prevent overfitting.

Rushing Yards Over Expected (RYOE)

Week 7: -0.39 yards per carry (24th among RBs)

Week 8:

Week 9: -0.43 yards per carry (22nd)

Yards After Contact (YAC)

Week 7:

Week 8:

Week 9:

Yards Per Carry (YPC)

Week 7:

Week 8:

Week 9:

These three statistics were assigned an equal weight and summed to create a composite ranking to be tested as the independent variable. This composite ranking represents Chubb's level of performance (vertical column) in relation to how many games back from injury he is (horizontal column).

As the best fit line indicates (in orange), there is a slight positive correlation between the number of weeks Chubb has played and his level of performance. The p-value of this model — which measures how likely it is that the data would occur according to random chance — is 0.678.

This means that there is a 67.8% chance that there is no correlation between the number of games Chubb has played and his level of performance. The remaining 32.2% represents the probability that the relationship is statistically significant.

Overall, while there is a slight uptick in production as Chubb gets more reps, it is not significant enough to make any sweeping assertions. It's going to take more than three games for this Chubb to return to the old Chubb. By watching the film, it's very clear that Chubb's extraordinary vision and reflections are there. His body just needs to catch up.

The Browns are going to give him time and reps as his lower body gets up to speed. It's going to take time for Chubb to reacclimate to relinquishing his snap-to-snap duties.

But the data is obvious and hard to look at.

Pragmatically speaking, Chubb has been among the worst running backs in the past three weeks. There's a very good chance he continues to get healthier and healthier as the season goes on. However, the data right now doesn't support the claim he's getting better each week.

The Browns can only hope the bye this weekend sets a turnaround in motion and gives fans something to cheer about in an otherwise lost season.