How Long Does it Take to Rebuild a Team in Today’s NFL?

After a twenty three year reign of error, Washington football fans finally got their wish when Dan Snyder fled the country a little over a year ago, leaving our hometown team in the stewardship of the Harris ownership group. The wishes kept being granted as the inept coaching staff was fired on Black Monday following the end of the regular season. In January it was announced that the Commanders had hired 49ers ' Assistant GM Adam Peters to be the team's first real GM since Dan Snyder fired NFL Executive of the Year, Charley Casserly, in 1999.

Peters quickly got to work assembling a new front office and coaching staff, and then embarked on the most thorough single-offseason roster reset that the team had undergone in my memory as a fan for over 50 years.

Based on the reactions to the Commanders' first two games under new management, it would appear that many fans had expected to see immediate improvement following one offseason. A common theme on the comment threads following the Week 1 loss was that today's NFL is a worst to first league.

There is some truth to that. At least one team goes from last to first in their division nearly every season. Most often, those are teams rebounding from a bad season or two, and sometimes they are teams adding the final pieces to a rebuild. But that is not what we are talking about here.

Following the end of the Joe Gibbs/Bobby Beathard era, the Redskins experienced an extended period of non-competitiveness that has only been rivalled by a few other NFL teams. Most of the team's dark age occurred under Dan Snyder's ownership, culminating in the coach-centric experiment, which saw Ron Rivera put in charge of player personnel to disastrous effect.

The roster that Adam Peters inherited from Rivera was devoid of talent at key positions from the top to the bottom of the depth chart, including quarterback, offensive tackle, edge defender and cornerback. The task he was given to rebuild a smoking ruin to championship contention was epic in scope.

Josh Harris and Mitchell Rales of the new ownership group are about my age and grew up around the same Maryland suburbs that I did. They experienced the Redskins rise to greatness during their formative years in the 1980's and have made it clear that they intend to restore the franchise to its former glory.

How long would it be reasonable to expect a rebuild from franchise reset to championship contention to take? To answer that question, I had a look at the timelines of rebuilds of six of today's playoff contenders whose fortunes rebounded following low points comparable in various ways to the 2023 Commanders: 2023 Houston Texans , 2023 Detroit Lions , 2020 Buffalo Bills , 2020 Cleveland Browns , 2019 San Francisco 49ers, 2018 Rams.

Rebuild Timelines The first four teams I will examine were chosen because they underwent front office and roster resets of comparable scope to the 2024 Commanders, following seasons with fewer than 6 wins and/or extended periods out of playoff contention. The 2018 Rams underwent a quicker turn-around, but it did not involve a front office overhaul or as significant a roster overhaul as Washington experienced. I have less confidence in the Brown's rebuild, so I gave them cursory treatment at the end.

In each case, the rebuild time is counted as the number of seasons from the franchise reset (Year 1) to the first playoff win. The Commanders are currently in Year 1.

The Texans worst to first turnaround from 2022 to 2023 has been widely cited on Hogs Haven comment threads since the Week 1 loss as an example of how teams can completely change their fortunes in the course of a single offseason. I thought it would be the best place to start.

The Texans had been a competitive team throughout the 2010's, with 6 playoff appearances from 2011 through 2019, only two losing seasons in that stretch, and a roster featuring star players J.J. Watt, DeAndre Hopkins and Deshaun Watson. Like Rivera's Commanders, football operations were headed by a dual role Head Coach/GM, Bill O'Brien.

Following a divisional round playoff loss to the Chiefs in 2019, the team started the 2020 season with four straight losses. O'Brien was fired after Week 4, and was replaced by interim head coach Romeo Crennel for the remainder of the season.

During the 2021 offseason, the team hired GM Nick Caserio and OC David Culley to replace O'Brien, and brought in Lovie Smith as DC, who switched the defense from a 3-4 base to 4-3. Three-time Pro Bowl QB Deshaun Watson, who had led the league in passing in 2020 (Yds, Y/A), became disgruntled with the front office changes, as sexual harassment allegations began to emerge. He remained on the roster, but was ruled out of every game that season. This marked the first year of the franchise reset, equivalent to where the Commanders are starting in 2024.

The ensuing franchise rebuild is mapped out in the following chart.

2021 Season – Year 1 Following the 2020 season, the Texans hired long-time Patriots exec Nick Caserio as GM. Caserio hired Ravens assistant head coach and passing coordinator David Culley as head coach, and replaced DC Anthony Weaver with Lovie Smith.

Caserio then embarked on a total roster makeover of equivalent scale to the Commanders' 2024 shakeup. Sixteen new players were signed in free agency, and 16 players were released, or allowed to walk as free agents, including All-Decade superstar J.J. Watt.

As a result of O'Brien's trade for LT Laremy Tunsil, and other moves the previous season, the Texans first of five draft picks was in Round 3. They used it to select QB Davis Mills, who would start for the next two seasons. They also hit on WR Nico Collins in the third round and DT Roy Lopez in the 6th.

The 2021 starting roster had turnover of 64% of positions from the previous season. The new look Texans opened the 2021 season with a 37-21 win over the Jaguars. The Jaguars finished the season with the worst record in the NFL at 3-14. The Texans did not win another game until a Week 11 upset of the Titans. Their other two wins came against the Jaguars, again, and the Chargers in Weeks 15-16. Head coach David Culley and offensive coordinator Tim Kelly were fired at the conclusion of the regular season.

2022 Season – Year 2 Defensive coordinator Lovie Smith was made head coach, following Culley's departure. He remained defensive coordinator and switched to a 4-3 base defense. Passing game coordinator Pep Hamilton was promoted to offensive coordinator.

The Texans were once again highly active in free agency, acquiring 10 new players, including starters DT Maliek Collins, CB Desmond King, DE Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, and G A.J. Cann, as well as former and future Washington QBs Kyle Allen and Jeff Driskel. Nearly all of the signings were on short term, low to moderate value contracts.

The biggest move of the 2022 offseason was a blockbuster trade, shipping QB Deshaun Watson to Cleveland Browns in exchange for the Browns' first round picks in 2022, 2023 and 2024, along with fourth rounders in 2022 and 2024 and a third round pick in 2023. That kicked off a flurry of activity, totalling 13 draft trades overall, involving trading players for picks, pick swaps, and swapping picks for players. Players acquired in these trades included WR Anthony Miller, TE Ryan Izzo and CB Ka'dar Hollman.

The Texans ended up making 9 selections in the 2022 draft, including two in the first round and five in the top 75. Remarkably, the Texans hit on five of their first six draft picks, landing starters CB Derek Stingley Jr (rd 1, pick 3), G Kenyon Green (rd 1, pick 15), S Jalen Pitre (rd 2, pick 37), LB Christian Harris (rd 3, pick 75), RB Dameon Pierce (rd 4, pick 107). WR John Metchie III (rd 2, pick 44) was diagnosed with leukemia, and missed his rookie season. I don't think I have ever seen as impressive a run of 5 picks in one draft.

The 2022 starting roster had 59% turnover from 2021. The Texans, led by QB Davis Mills, opened the season with a 20-20 tie with the Colts. They won three games against the Jaguars in Week 5, the Titans in Week 16, and the Colts in the season finale. The highlight of the season was probably an overtime loss to the Chiefs in Week 15. While they only won three times, they were only blown out once, in a week 17 loss to the Jaguars by 28 points.

2023 Season – Year 3 Following the 2022 season, Caserio turned over the entire senior coaching staff, replacing Smith and Hamilton with head coach DeMeco Ryans, offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and defensive coordinator Matt Burke.

The roster churn continued into the third season, fuelled in large part by the draft war chest acquired in the previous offseason. For the third season in a row the Texans were major movers in free agency, signing 16 players, including new starters TE Dalton Schultz, RB Devin Singletary, LB Denzel Perryman, DT Sheldon Rankins, RB Robert Woods, S Jimmie Ward, C Michael Deiter and last, but certainly not least, FB Andrew Beck. That's right. They capped their rebuild by making fullback a starting position. In addition to Deiter, the Texans also acquired former and future Washington players QB Case Keenum and WR Noah Brown.

Once again, all of the FA contracts were short term, with the highest APY being Sheldon Rankins' one year $10.5m deal.

The capping pieces of the rebuild were acquired in the draft, using the draft capital acquired in the previous offseason and another flurry of trade activity. With the 2nd overall pick, Caserio selected QB C.J. Stroud. Stroud won Offensive Rookie of the Year and was voted to the Pro Bowl based on a record setting rookie campaign that saw him throw for 4,108 yds and 23 TDs to just 5 interceptions. Caserio then traded for Arizona's third overall pick to select DE Will Anderson, who was voted AP Defensive Rookie of the Year, and joined Stroud in the Pro Bowl. Other key pieces acquired in the draft were WR Tank Dell (47 rec, 709 yds, 7 TD, 2.22 Y/RR), LB Henry To'oTo'o, and G Jarrett Patterson.

The 2023 starting roster had 64% turnover from 2022. Six of the starters were drafted by Caserio: QB CJ Stroud, DE Will Anderson, WR Nico Collins, LB Henry To'oTo'o, CB Derek Stingley Jr., S Jalen Pitre.

The Texans finished the regular season with a 10-7 record and won the AFC South for the first time since 2019. They became the first team ever to win their division with a rookie head coach and QB. They capped the rebuild with a blowout 45-14 win over the Cleveland Browns in the Wild Card round. Their playoff run came to an end the following week in a 34-10 loss to the number one seed Baltimore Ravens .

Texans Rebuild SummaryTime to First Playoff Win:

Season Records:

Coaching Churn:

Key Players in Place: QB Deshaun Watson, WR Brandin Cooks, LT Laremy Tunsil

Starting Roster Churn: 2021 – 63.6%, 2022 – 59.1%, 2023 – 63.6%

FA Signings: 2021 – 16; 2022 – 10; 2023 - 16

Drafted Starters Added:

Playoff Winning QB Acquired: Year 3 via draft

Other Comparable Rebuilds - Lions, Bills, 49ers I won't go into the same level of detail with the other four teams as I did with the Texans, just the overview and key points for comparison.

The Lions' situation is more analogous to the 2024 Commanders, because the franchise reset involved breaking out a decades long rut, following a change in ownership. The Lions experience a playoff drought from 1990 through 2022, which only ended after ownership transferred to his wife, Martha Firestone Ford, following his death in 2013. Martha involved their daughter Sheila Hamp Ford in team management, including the decision to fire GM Martin Mayhew in 2015. In 2020, Sheila took over management as principal owner and chairperson.

Bob Quinn was initially hired to replace Mayhew as GM and guided the team through up and down seasons, bottoming out at a 3-12-1 record in 2019, followed by a 5-11 record in 2020, the year Sheila Hamp Ford took full control.

Quinn and head coach Matt Patricia were fired on November 28, 2020 following a blowout loss to the Texans. After the season, they were replaced by GM Brad Holmes, who hired a new coaching staff and began a complete roster reset. This sets the start of the rebuild at 2021.

In the first offseason, Holmes hired head coach Dan Campbell, offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn. Glenn switched the base defense from 3-4 to 4-3. The next season he replaced Anthony Lynn with Ben Johnson as offensive coordinator. The coaching staff remained set after that.

Trades, Free Agency, Draft Holmes kicked off the 2021 roster reset by trading QB Matthew Stafford to the Rams in exchange for QB Jared Goff plus first round picks in 2022 and 2023 and a 2021 third round pick. Via subsequent trades with the Cardinals and Vikings, the Lions used those picks to acquire RB Jahmyr Gibbs, DT Brodric Martin, WR Jameson Williams, EDGE Josh Paschal and DB Ifeatu Melifonwu.

Holmes was highly active in free agency, predominantly signing players to short term contracts under $10m APY. The biggest free agent deals during the rebuild were resigning DE Romeo Okwara (3 yrs, $39m), and acquiring DT DJ Reader (2 years, up to $27m), WR DJ Chark (1 yr, $12m) and CB Cameron Sutton (3 yrs, $33m).

Like Caserio with the Texans, Holmes did his heavy lifting in the draft. In the three drafts from 2021 through 2023, he hit on starters WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (AP1, 2x PB), RT Penei Sewell (AP1, 2x PB), DT Alim McNeill, DE Aidan Hutchinson(PB), LB Malcolm Rodriguez, S Kerby Joseph, RB Jahmyr Gibbs (PB), WR Jameson Williams, TE Sam La Porta (PB), LB Jack Campbell, and S Brian Branch.

Season Results The Lions opened the 2021 season with a 33-41 loss to the 49ers, kicking off a 9 game losing streak. They tied 16-16 with the Steelers in Week 10, then lost their next two games. Their first win of the rebuild came against the Vikings in Week 13. They won two more against the Cardinals and Packers to finish the season 3-13-1, giving them the second pick in the 2022 draft.

In 2022, the Lions won their Week 2 matchup against the Commanders, then didn't win another game until Week 9 against the Packers. That upset sparked a turnaround. They won 8 of their last 10 games to finish the season 9-8-0.

In 2023, the Lions added starters Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, and Jack Campbell via the draft, as well nickelback Brian Branch. 2022 Draft pick Jameson Williams also joined the starting lineup. The team finished the regular season with a 12-5 record, clinching the NFC North division title for the first time since 1993. They beat the Rams in the Wild Card round and the Bucs in the Divisional playoff before losing to the 49ers in the NFC Championship game.

The rebuild was completed with the Lions first two playoff wins since 1991, ending the NFL's longest active playoff drought.

Lions Rebuild SummaryTime to First Playoff Win:

Season Records:

Coaching Churn:

Key Players in Place: LT Taylor Decker, LG Jonah Jackson, C Frank Ragnow

Starting Roster Churn: 2021 – 63.6%; 2022 – 59.1%; 2023 – 63.6%

FA Signings: 2021 – 30; 2022 – 10; 2023 - 16

Drafted Starters Added:

Playoff Winning QB Acquired: Year 1 via trade

Like the Lions and Commanders, the Bills suffered an extended losing run under a negligent owner. The team experienced a playoff drought from 2000 to through 2016. Following the death of founding owner Ralph Wilson in 2013, the franchise was purchased by current owners Terry and Kim Pegula.

The Pegulas retained GM Doug Whaley through their first three seasons in ownership, as the record dropped from 9-7 to 8-8 to 7-9. Head coach Rex Ryan and brother Rob were fired before the final game of the 2016 season. The rest of the coaching staff was fired after the season.

The 2017 offseason commenced with the hiring of Sean McDermott as head coach, Rick Dennison as offensive coordinator and Leslie Frazier as defensive coordinator. Following the 2017 draft, Whaley was fired, along with the entire scouting staff. Brandon Beane was hired as the new GM. These moves mark 2017 as the first year of the franchise reset. Unlike the Texans and Lions, the outgoing GM ran the draft and free agency. By the end of August, only 9 of the 28 players Whaley had drafted were still on the roster. Six veterans, including WR Sammy Watkins, were traded for draft picks and other players.

Following the initial shakeup the front office and coaching staff remained mostly stable for the rest of the rebuild. In 2018, Brian Daboll replaced Dennison as OC, after which the coaching lineup was set.

Trades, Free Agency, Draft The roster renewal commenced in 2017 with a fire sale on veterans being traded for draft picks and other players, headlined by Sammy Watkins traded to the Rams for a 2nd round pick and CB E.J. Gaines. These deals were supplemented by 15 FA signings, headlined by S Micah Hyde signing to a 5 year, $30.5m deal. The rest of Buffalo's FA acquisitions were replacement starters on low value contracts, role players and depth. The pattern of free agent acquisitions remained fairly constant throughout the rebuild, with only DT Star Lotuleli and DE Mario Addison reaching the $10m APY mark.

The biggest veteran acquisition during the rebuild was the trade for WR Stefon Diggs, in which Buffalo shipped first rounder and three Day 3 picks to Minnesota. Diggs was extended on a 4 year, $24m APY deal.

Under Beane, the Bills were highly active in draft trades, moving up and down the board to target players they liked or to acquire more capital. Key pieces added through the draft included LT Dion Dawkins, CB Tre'Davious White, QB Josh Allen, LB Tremaine Edmonds, LB Matt Milano, RB Devin Singletary, TE Dawson Knox, S/LB Taron Johnson and DT Ed Oliver.

Season Results The Bills opened the 2017 season with a 21-12 win over the Jets. They won 4 of their next 6 games and finished the season with a 9-8 record to qualify for the playoffs for the first time since 1999. They were knocked out at the Wild Card round by the Jaguars.

In 2018, following the first offseason run by GM Brandon Beane, the record dropped to 6-10. Rookie QB struggled initially in his first 11 NFL starts (QB rec 5-6, 52.8% completions, 10 TD, 12 INT, 28 sacks, 8 fumbles).

In 2019, the Bills rebounded as QB Josh Allen made strides, playing with an improved supporting cast on offense. The Bills improved on their 2017 regular season record, going 10-6 and returning to the playoffs, where they were knocked out of the Wild Card round by the Texans.

The Bills opened the 2020 season with four straight wins. With QB Josh Allen and offseason addition Stefon Diggs having All-Pro performances, they finished the regular season with a 13-3 regular record, winning the AFC East division title for first time since 1995. They won playoff games against the Colts and Ravens to complete the rebuild, before losing the AFC Championship game to the Chiefs.

Bills Rebuild SummaryTime to First Playoff Win:

Season Records:

Coaching Churn:

Key Players in Place: RB LeSean McCoy, OLB Jerry Hughes

Starting Roster Churn: 2017 – 50.0%; 2018 – 36.4%; 2019 – 50.0%, 2020 – 40.9%

FA Signings: 2017 – 15; 2018 – 15; 2019 – 7; 2020 - 11

Drafted Starters Added:

Playoff Winning QB Acquired: Year 2 via draft

The 49ers were a Super Bowl contender under head coach Jim Harbaugh in the early 2010s, but tanked following his departure, culminating in a disastrous 2-14 season under Chip Kelly in 2016.

After the season, the Yorks fired Kelly and GM Trent Baalke. The team had been talking to Falcons' offensive coordinator, Kyle Shanahan about the head coach position, and Shanahan introduced to them to John Lynch, who was hired as GM. On John Elway's recommendation, Lynch hired Broncos director of college scouting, Adam Peters to take on the role of vice president of player personnel. Robert Saleh was hired as defensive coordinator to complete the senior coaching staff, which remained constant throughout the rebuild.

Trades, Free Agency, Draft In the 2017 offseason, the 49ers let 23 players leave in free agency, and retained five, with most on one year contracts. QB Colin Kaepernick was also released, with Kyle Shanahan citing poor fit to his system.

The departed players were replaced with 19 free agent signings, headlined by journey QB Brian Hoyer, along with All-Pro FB Kyle Juszczyk, WR Pierre Garcon, WR Marquise Goodwin, K Robbie Gould, TE Logan Paulsen, WR Aldrick Robinson, and DE Elvis Dumervil.

After the initial roster cleanse in 2017, the 49ers' became less active in free agency, with 7 vets added in 2018 and 5 in 2018. The biggest FA signings during the rebuild were LB Kwon Alexander (4 yrs, $54m), C Weston Richburg (5 years $47.5m), CB Richard Sherman (3 yrs, $27m). The other FA signings were generally short term contracts with medium to low cap hits.

Following an 0-8 start in 2017, the 49ers traded a 2018 2nd round pick to the Patriots to acquire QB Jimmy Garoppolo, whose addition had nearly immediate impact.

Like the other successful rebuilders, Lynch primarily upgraded the roster through the draft. In the three drafts from 2017 through 2019, the 49ers acquired star players TE George Kittle (AP1 x2, AP2 x2, PB x5), LB Fred Warner (AP1 x3, PB x3), WR Deebo Samuel (AP1, PB), DE Nick Bosa (DRoY, AP1, PB x4), LB Dre Greenlaw and P Mitch "Boomin' Onion" Wishnowsky, originally of Western Australia. Like the teams listed above, Lynch's 49ers were aggressive traders, moving up and down the draft board to target players and add draft capital.

Season Results The 49ers opened the 2017 season with 9 straight losses. Following the Week 8 loss to the Eagles, they traded for Jimmy Garoppolo with the Patriots. Garoppolo made his debut, with 2 pass attempts in the Week 12 loss to the Seahawks . He led the 49ers to victory the following week in his first start against the Bears. The 49ers won their remaining 4 games with Jimmy G under center, to finish the first season of the rebuild 6-10.

In 2018, the 49ers looked to build on the previous season's strong finish, but were hindered by multiple season-ending injuries, including Garoppolo tearing his ACL in Week 3. The defense disappointed, recording just 3 interceptions and 7 total takeaways. These setbacks resulted in a 4-12 season record.

The rebound came in 2019. With a healthy Jimmy Garoppolo joined by newcomers WR Deebo Samuel, DE Nick Bosa, LB Kwon Alexander, LB Dre Greenlaw, and veteran TE George Kittle reaching All-Pro form, the 49ers opened the season with 9 straight wins and finished the regular season 13-3. They completed the rebuild with 17 point playoff wins over the Vikings and Packers, before losing to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl.

Time to First Playoff Win:

Season Records:

Coaching Churn (None):

Key Players in Place: LT Joe Staley, DL DeForest Buckner, DB Jimmie Ward

Starting Roster Churn: 2017 – 63.6%; 2018 – 50.0%; 2019 – 40.9%

FA Signings: 2017 – 19; 2018 – 7; 2019 – 5

Drafted Starters Added:

Playoff Winning QB Acquired: Year 1 via trade

Rams and Browns The 2018 LA Rams are the only team in the last decade or more to win a playoff game in under two years from the start of a franchise reset. However, it wasn't as extensive a reset as the other four teams, and they started with bigger key pieces in place.

Following the departure of Mike Martz in 2005, the Rams fell on hard times and didn't have another winning season for 12 years. The franchise returned to LA in 2015. Head coach Jim Fisher was fired after a 4-9 start to the 2016 season, ending his 5 year tenure without a winning season.

Unlike the Texans, Lions, Bills and 49ers, the Rams front office remained largely intact throughout the rebuild, with GM Les Snead and most of the executive personnel staff remaining in place. In that sense, it was not a complete franchise reset, like the others.

There was a near total overhaul of the senior coaching staff, with Sean McVay hired as head coach, Wade Phillips as defensive coordinator and Matt LaFleur hired as offensive coordinator. Interim head coach John Fassel was retained as special teams coordinator, along with RB coach Skip Peete and assistant OL coach Andy Dickerson.

Another difference from the other teams is that the Rams started out with more elite players and key pieces in place, including QB Jared Goff (3x PB), RB Todd Gurley (AP1 x2, PB x2), TE Tyler Higbee, LG Rodger Saffold (AP2, 2x PB), RT Rob Havenstein, defensive back Lamarcus Joyner, and DT Aaron Donald (8x AP1, 10x PB, 3x DPoY, HOF All-2010's Team).

Trades, Free Agency, Draft The Rams took a fairly different approach to the roster makeover, in part because they started out in better shape. They signed fewer free agents per year and used free agency to acquire premium talent at premium prices. They also traded early round draft picks for veteran players, and were less successful at drafting players.

Key FA acquisitions in 2017 were LT Andrew Whitworth (3 yrs, $33.75M, Age 35), WR Robert Woods (5 yrs, $34m), and C John Sullivan (1 yr, $1m). In 2018 they signed FA defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh (1 yr, $14.5m) and re-signed their own FAs John Sullivan, Dominique Easley and Nickell Robey Coleman.

In the 2018 offseason they acquired three premium vets in trades: WR Brandin Cooks (1st rd pick to Patriots, 4th rd pick to Rams), CB Marcus Peters (2nd, 4th rd picks to Broncos, 6th rd pick to Rams), CB Aquib Talib (5th rd pick to Broncos).

Key players added in the draft in 2017 and 2018 were WR Cooper Kupp (AP1, AP Off. PoY, SB MVP), OLB Samson Ebukam, S John Johnson, DT Sebastian Joseph-Day.

Season Results Following a rough first season, 2016 first overall draft pick Jared Goff earned the start in 2017. That season he earned a Pro Bowl nomination, leading a transformation of the Rams' offense from the lowest scoring unit in 2016 to the NFL leader with 478 total points. Goff was supported by a roster including 7 All-Pros: LT Andrew Whitworth, RB Todd Gurley, LG Rodger Saffold, DT Aaron Donald, K Greg Zuerlein, P Johnny Hekker, and KR/PR Pharoh Cooper. The Rams finished the regular season with an 11-5 record, their first winning season since 2003, and clinched their first playoff berth since 2004. They were knocked out of the playoffs in a 13-26 Wild Card loss to Dan Quinn's Atlanta Falcons .

Bolstered by the additions of WRs Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks, DT Ndamukong Suh, CBs Marcus Peters and Aquib Talib, and a breakout performance by third year LB Cory Littleton (AP2, PB), the 2018 Rams improved their regular season record to 13-3. They beat the New Orleans Saints to win the NFC Championship and returned to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2001, where they were defeated 13-3 by the New England Patriots .

Rams Rebuild SummaryTime to First Playoff Win:

Season Records:

Coaching Churn :

Key Players in Place: QB Jared Goff, RB Todd Gurley, LG Rodger Saffold, RT Rob Havenstein, DT Aaron Donald, DB Lamarcus Joyner, K Greg Zuerlein, P Johnny Hekker, WR/Returner Pharoh Cooper

Starting Roster Churn: 2017 – 54.5; 2018 – 40.9%

FA Signings: 2017 – 7; 2018 – 3 (3 re-signed)

Drafted Starters Added:

Playoff Winning QB Acquired: Year -1 via draft

What about the 2020 Cleveland Browns? In 2020, the Cleveland Browns won a Wild Card playoff three seasons after a franchise reset in the wake of the worst three-season tank in NFL history. I haven't elaborated on them like the four successful rebuilders discussed above, because I have no confidence in the sustainability of their rebuild. Also, like the Rams, the started their rebuild with more elite talent and key pieces in place. In the interests of completeness, here is the rebuild summary, starting from the franchise reset in 2018:

Browns Rebuild SummaryTime to First Playoff Win:

Season Records:

Coaching Churn :

Key Players in Place: DE Myles Garrett (3x AP1, 2x AP2, DPoY, 5x PB), LG Joel Bitonio (2x AP1, 3x AP2, 6x PB), C JC Tretter, RG Kevin Zeitler (PB), DE Emmanuel Ogbah, LB Joe Schobert (PB)

Starting Roster Churn: 2018 – 63.6%; 2019 – 45.5%; 2020 40.9%

FA Signings: 2018 – 12 (multiple trades); 2019 – 5; 2020 - 9

Drafted Starters Added:

Playoff Winning QB Acquired: Year 1 via draft

Summary – How Long Does It Take to Build a Playoff Winner? I identified four teams in the last decade that were rebuilt from total disasters to playoff winners: Houston Texans, Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49ers. I have qualms about comparing the Commanders to the Browns, but for simplicity let's include them to make it 5 teams. The times from franchise reset to the first playoff win ranged from 3 to 4 seasons. Of the 5 teams, only the Bills had a winning record in the first year of the rebuild. The Lions had their first winning record in Year 2, while the other 3 teams did not have a winning season until Year 3, when they won their first playoff game.

Of the five most comparable rebuilds, only the Bills had a winning record in Year 1, and they dropped to 6-10 in Year 2. They also took the longest time to reach their first playoff win.

The LA Rams also experienced a dramatic reversal of fortune in 2017, ending a 12 year run of losing seasons. Their situation in 2017 was very different to the 2024 Commanders in that they kept their front office intact, and they started the franchise revival with a roster loaded with elite talent and key pieces, including a soon to be Pro Bowl nominated QB. The Rams rebuild was very much a case of swapping out a losing head coach with a better replacement. McVay's predecessor, Jim Fisher was the only head coach in the salary cap era to lead NFL teams through a continuous streak of non-winning seasons longer than Ron Rivera's 6 year run from 2018 through 2023.

Commanders' fans should not lose hope if the team only wins a few games this season. If all goes to plan, it is just the start of a three year process.