How red zone efficiency could decide Ohio State vs. Michigan

COLUMBUS, Ohio — For as much as Ohio State wants to get a closer look at what Michigan does in the red zone, there just haven’t been many opportunities so far this season.

The Wolverines have allowed just 18 red zone attempts in 11 games so far this season, and boast the third-best red zone stop rate in the nation at 66.7% .

Opponents have scored just six red zone touchdowns on the Wolverines this season, who rank fifth in the nation in red zone rushing touchdowns allowed (five) and first in red zone passing touchdowns allowed (one).

“Well, first off they haven’t had very many snaps down there,” coach Ryan Day said earlier this week. “So, there’s not a ton to go off of. But every yard is worth two or three down there, and you gotta do a great job of execution. The field gets smaller. We call it the 12th defender, that end line, so you just gotta operate in a smaller area. So, you’ve gotta be efficient. That’ll be another situation that’ll be huge in the game, those four-point plays where you’re either kicking field goals or scoring touchdowns, on both sides of the ball.”

Ohio State, for its part, has certainly had its struggles in the red zone offensively.

In 47 red zone attempts, the Buckeyes have scored on 85.1% of their trips inside the 20-yard line — good for 60th in the country. Of those 47 attempts, they’ve made field goals on 11 of those trips and scored touchdowns on 29 of them. Meaning, they’ve scored touchdowns at a 61.7% clip when entering the red zone.

A year ago, they were one of the best red zone teams in the country. This year, for a myriad of reasons including a lack of production in the run game and a first-year starter at quarterback, there’s been a drop-off.

But considering that Ohio State also has one of the nation’s best red zone defenses (eighth in the country, at 72.7%), turning those field goals into touchdowns will be a massive part of Saturday afternoon — especially considering what Michigan can do in the red zone.

The Wolverines have just the 48th-best red zone offense in the nation (and score points at an 86.5% clip), but they’ve also rushed for 27 touchdowns. That number is tied for the best in the country with Georgia.

Michigan also has kicked just six red zone field goals our of its 45 red zone scores this year, indicating both a willingness to be aggressive and an efficiency that not many teams have in the nation. When Blake Corum (who has 20 rushing touchdowns this season) gets into the red zone, he’s difficult to stop.

All of this is to say that the 60 yards of the field between both sides of the 20-yard line will go a long way to deciding who wins on Saturday. And considering how close these two teams appear to be talent-wise, it makes sense that a few yards could be the difference.