How the Least Discussed Swing State Could Swing Away From Kamala Harris
The least discussed battleground state may be swinging away from Vice President Kamala Harris with only weeks until Election Day.
Nebraska isn't considered as often as the core seven battleground states ahead of the November 5 election. But the small, traditionally Republican state could play an outsized role in the race between Harris and former President Donald Trump , as its unique way of counting its Electoral College votes could be the difference between a Harris or Trump victory.
Currently, Nebraska and Maine are the only two states that split their votes in the Electoral College—the statewide victor earns two votes, and each candidate gets one per Congressional district they carry. But with only 46 days until the election, Republican legislators in the Cornhusker State are mulling a last-minute change to how they count their Electoral College votes.
The GOP-controlled legislature is pushing to change to a winner-take-all system ahead of November, when the state's Second District, centered around Omaha, and its single electoral vote could be crucial.
Nebraska is a red state, but the Second District is thoroughly purple, backing Trump in 2016 and President Joe Biden four years ago. Harris is a slight favorite to carry it in November, according to recent polls and election forecasters.
A single Electoral College vote may seem minor, but could be decisive as polls show the race will likely be decided by razor-thin margins in only a handful of battleground states .
The district is most relevant in the scenario where Harris sweeps the Rust Belt swing states—Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—and Trump wins the Sun Belt and southern battlegrounds—Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. That puts Harris and Trump at a 269-268 margin, with 270 electoral votes needed to win. Nebraska's Second, should it go for Harris, would put her at 270.
If Nebraska transitions to a winner-take-all system, Harris would be denied that vote, resulting in an Electoral College tie. It's not clear that Nebraska Republicans will be able to pull of that feat before Election Day.
Kevin Smith, a professor of political science at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, told Newsweek he does not believe it is likely state lawmakers will secure enough votes to change its system.
"I'm actually pretty skeptical about the chances of this being pulled off," he said. "I mean, you never say never, but it's about to be October, so we're only a couple of months out from the election. Getting this done in that short of a time period means negotiating some pretty tough obstacles in the legislature."
Nebraska's unicameral legislature is nonpartisan on paper, but conservative lawmakers make up a majority in the state, which backed Trump by 19 points in 2020.
Despite the conservative majority, proponents of a winner-take-all system would need a filibuster-proof majority to pass changes to the electoral system. It does not appear the proposal has enough support, as many Nebraskans believe the current system is beneficial by giving the otherwise safely red state some relevance in presidential races.
"The issue is do they have the votes. While I think there is a majority of the legislature who supports it, there's not enough to break the procedural filibuster that the opponents would tie it up in," said Randall Adkins, a professor of political science at the University of Nebraska-Omaha.
Governor Jim Pillen, a Republican, has said he would call a special session — the second of the year — to change the electoral system, but only if he knows there are enough votes for the proposal to pass.
State Senator Mike McDonnell, a Republican who changed his affiliation from Democrat this year following backlash on his votes on LGBTQ+ and abortion bills, is still a 'no' on the proposal, he said on Thursday. But McDonnell is a crucial swing vote who could determine the fate of the proposal—and therefore, potentially the election.
"Senator McDonnell has heard compelling arguments from both [sides]. And, as of today, [he] is still a no," his spokesperson Barry Rubin told The Nebraska Examiner on Thursday.
When asked by Newsweek if there is a deadline for when the legislature would need to pass the proposal to change the system, Jackie Ourada, public information officer for the Nebraska secretary of state's office, said: "If winner-take-all is passed by the legislature before the election, barring any challenges, winner-take-all would go into effect."
Kate Heltzel, a spokesperson for the Nebraska legislature, told ABC News that others believe the rule would need to be changed before early voting begins on October 7, but that the attorney general's office has not officially weighed in on a deadline.
