Theathletic

Iowa-Nebraska roundtable: Who will be the impact players in Black Friday showdown?

T.Davis3 months ago

For nine months we write, discuss and opine about this sport — then it’s Thanksgiving week and we wonder where the season went. Such is the case every fall when Nebraska and Iowa meet on Black Friday. This year is no different.

The stakes also seem familiar. Iowa (9-2, 6-2 Big Ten) already has clinched the West Division title and will face the Michigan – Ohio State winner on Dec. 2 in Indianapolis. Nebraska (5-6, 3-5) can become bowl-eligible for the first time since 2016 if it can beat the Hawkeyes for the second straight season.

It’s strange to think that three games ago, these teams were tied atop the Big Ten West, and Black Friday had the potential for a winner-take-all showdown. Instead, the Hawkeyes have won three straight while the Huskers have dropped their last three. beat writers Mitch Sherman (Nebraska) and Scott Dochterman (Iowa) break it all down.

What happened over the last three weeks?

: For Iowa, it’s been a wild season for a multitude of reasons, but the last month is unapproachable in twists and turns for further myriad reasons. First, there was Cooper DeJean ’s electrifying punt return touchdown against Minnesota that was overturned on replay based on an invalid fair catch. Then a week later, Iowa president Barbara Wilson (through interim athletic director Beth Goetz) fired offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz, effective at season’s end.

In one of the more unusual news conferences one day after his son’s dismissal, Kirk Ferentz gave vibes that his future with the school was uncertain. He quickly cleared up his murky rhetoric, but there were multiple paths this season could take on the field. But in true Ferentz fashion, the Hawkeyes persevered and won their way. Based on the approach and the outcomes, one would never know there was any drama at Fortress Kinnick.

The Hawkeyes beat Northwestern with a last-second field goal at Wrigley Field, shut out Rutgers and clinched the West Division title by beating Illinois with a late touchdown run by Kaleb Johnson . Iowa has allowed just two touchdowns over the past five games and lost DeJean for the season with a broken leg. But in the meantime, quarterback Deacon Hill has made strides after replacing Cade McNamara , who is out for the season with a torn ACL. In his first three-plus games as the starter, Hill completed just 36.7 percent of his passes for 94.5 yards per game. In the past three games, he has completed 65.3 percent for 151.7 yards per game. Making the makeables has been critical in sustaining drives and playing complementary football.

: After Nebraska enjoyed its first unbeaten October since 2001, coach Matt Rhule, in his first season, appeared on track to exceed all reasonable expectations for a program that hadn’t reached the six-win mark since 2016.

Heinrich Haarberg directed five wins in six games as the starting quarterback, capped by a gutsy effort in the fourth quarter in a 31-14 win against Purdue . Haarberg came back from injury to lead a late touchdown drive.

All appeared well. But it was not. The sophomore QB threw two interceptions and lost a fumble in a 20-17 loss at Michigan State . Haarberg’s struggles continued at home against Maryland in a complete offensive meltdown as each of the three quarterbacks for Nebraska threw interceptions. Five turnovers, including a late interception in the end zone thrown by Chubba Purdy , doomed Nebraska in a 13-10 loss.

Purdy took the reins at Wisconsin last week and played the most complete game of the season by a Nebraska QB, considering the competition. But the Huskers settled for a field goal in the final minute and lost 24-17 in overtime.

A defense that ranks 10th nationally in yards allowed per play can’t do everything for the Huskers, who have committed an FBS-high 28 turnovers and rank 132nd out of 133 teams in turnover margin. And so, Nebraska finds itself for the third time since 2015 set to host Iowa in need of a win to reach bowl eligibility.

How much does this game mean in both the short term and big picture?

: Quite a bit on both fronts. In the short term, it’s simply about winning the game. “Like I said when we were at 5-3,” Rhule said this week, “I didn’t want to just win one more. I wanted to win them all.”

Nebraska has failed three times. To take a four-game losing streak into the offseason would leave the Huskers downtrodden. It would threaten to stem momentum needed to bolster the roster through recruiting and the transfer portal. It would mean another December at home.

The Huskers haven’t beaten a ranked team in more than seven years. If Rhule’s program beat 17th-ranked Iowa and attained bowl eligibility, it would rate as a landmark win.

Beyond Friday, the ramifications of a win are more abstract — but equally as significant.

“The No. 1 thing is practice,” Rhule said. “We need the reps.”

Nebraska would benefit from bowl practices and the bowl experience. A sixth win would relieve pressure entering year two for Rhule, when the challenge of a more difficult schedule arrives. The Huskers feel good about their progress this year.

“If you did an autopsy and you cut open the football program here, it’s as healthy as it can be,” the coach said.

Still, to stamp Rhule’s first year as a success, Nebraska needs the legitimacy that a win over the Big Ten West champ would provide.

: In the short term, this game has cosmetic appeal for Iowa. This team could be the eighth version under Ferentz to win 10 games in a season. That matters to the players, especially with the adversity they have faced. While they didn’t go out of their way to bring up schadenfreude, a win at Nebraska to keep the Huskers out of a bowl game would provide some joy after Nebraska ended Iowa’s hopes of a Big Ten West title last year.

“It might be a side benefit I think after the game,” tackle Mason Richman said. “When we win, I think we might say something like that, but before the game it’s just about us. It’s about grinding it out.”

Iowa also cares deeply about its trophy games, with a display in its front foyer of the football facility. The Heroes Trophy is one they’d like to have back after last year’s loss at Kinnick to Nebraska.

In the big picture, these games matter for recruiting purposes. It’s likely that anywhere from a third to a half of the recruits from both programs will have offers from one another, especially those in the Midwest. For instance, both are deeply invested in a pair of juniors from Algona, Iowa, including quarterback Alex Manske. One would hope that neither player is so shallow to pick a school based on the outcome of a singular game. But a win or loss does impact recruiting momentum and one player at any position can alter games and ultimately legacies.

Is there an unheralded player or two who could impact this game?

: For Iowa, there are a couple. On offense, sophomore tight end Addison Ostrenga has become a major contributor since NFL -caliber tight ends Luke Lachey and Erick All went down with season-ending injuries. Ostrenga originally committed to Iowa to play baseball, then flipped to football. He has caught 19 passes for 116 yards and two touchdowns this year. But where he’s made the most strides is in his blocking. In Kaleb Johnson’s 30-yard touchdown run to beat Illinois, Ostrenga drove his defender nearly 10 yards down the field. While he isn’t quite the athlete of Lachey, All or Sam LaPorta , Ostrenga looks the part as a quality Iowa tight end with NFL upside.

On defense, it’s senior linebacker Nick Jackson . Lining up next to Jay Higgins , Jackson doesn’t have as many tackles, but he’s rarely out of position and still has 87. He’s the best blitzer of Iowa’s second-level defenders with three sacks and five quarterback hurries. It’s an impressive season for the Virginia transfer who arrived at Iowa only in June.

: Nebraska doesn’t have many heralded players on offense. Purdy is set to start a second consecutive game. He accumulated 274 yards of offense against Wisconsin and showed impressive speed and solid decision-making skills.

Purdy, who fought through a groin injury, won’t surprise Iowa defenders after his 55-yard touchdown run on the first possession last week. But he has not accomplished enough at Nebraska to be considered a reliable weapon. No one has, in fact, for the Huskers on offense.

Defensively, keep an eye on safety Marques Buford. He made his season debut at Michigan State, missing the first eight games while recovering from a knee injury suffered in 2022. Buford has collected 17 tackles in three games and preserved a redshirt season. He’s fresh and fast while teammates battle the effects of a long season. Buford’s return has eased depth concerns for Nebraska in the secondary that surfaced after the midseason loss of safety DeShon Singleton .

How will this game play out?

: I don’t get the sense that a three-game losing streak has hurt the Huskers’ morale or their approach. They appear motivated and excited to play on Black Friday, as usual. Rhule and his assistant coaches have stayed steady at the top, and team leaders have reflected their professionalism.

Nebraska finally played a clean game in the turnover department last week. Its lone giveaway came on the final, fourth-down play in regulation, a desperation heave by Purdy. It will need a repeat effort in protecting the ball to keep the regular season from tipping in Iowa’s favor.

A tipping of the field is exactly what I envision, though. Look for punter Tory Taylor and that Iowa defense to chip away at the Huskers in a methodical push for field position that will eventually produce a touchdown for the Hawkeyes. And one touchdown might be all that either team needs. I’m going with an Iowa win, 10-6, and another dose of suffering for Nebraska.

. Now Iowa's Tory Taylor prepares for his finale

: The over/under line tells everything we need to know. It’s at 26.5 points, which frankly is comical. Both teams boast two of the nation’s best defenses and each offense has its challenges. In Iowa’s case, it has played better offensively in recent weeks but has still managed to go through a handful of three-and-outs per game spanning the second and third quarters. I’m not sure that it will matter on Friday, but I don’t know that it won’t, either.

The Hawkeyes seem relaxed but focused this week. They’ve already accomplished a primary goal of winning the West, but that doesn’t mean they’ll rest starters and instantly become apathetic about the outcome. In fact, the lack of pressure might make them a little more dangerous.

Games like this generally come down to field position, penalties and turnovers. Those are areas in which Iowa excels. I can see Iowa giving up some rushing yards between the 20s but tightening up and allowing only a few field goals. The Hawkeyes have had a rough year with turnovers at minus-3, but that’s still way better than Nebraska (minus-15). With the defense and punter Tory Taylor, plus the Huskers’ propensity for turning over the ball, I’ll pick Iowa in a close fistfight, 16-13.

(Top photo: Matthew Holst / )

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