It’s A Two-Horse Race For The NL Rookie Of The Year Award

With just over a week remaining in the MLB regular season, players are putting the final touches on their resumes for awards. In the National League, the Rookie of the Year race comes down to two contenders—San Diego Padres center fielder Jackson Merrill and Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Paul Skenes.

Jackson Merrill

Merrill was a consensus top 20 prospect prior to the season. He made the Opening Day roster—which meant two games in Seoul against the Los Angeles Dodgers on March 20 and 21—and has become an anchor of the Padres lineup ever since. He's batting .292/.323/.504 with 24 home runs, 16 stolen bases, and 4.0 rWAR (Baseball-Reference version) while having played 148 of their 153 games and was named to the All-Star Team.

Merrill has been the best-hitting rookie in MLB this year. He leads all rookies in batting average, home runs, and hits (154). His 17.5% strikeout rate is better than the league average, but he only walks 4.8% of the time which represses his on-base percentage.

His work in center field has been nearly as impressive—especially since he never played there before this season. He played shortstop almost exclusively in the minors, but a crowded San Diego infield forced him to learn a new position. In his first year in center field, he has 10 Outs Above Average according to Baseball Savant —which ranks him in the 95th percentile in MLB.

Merrill may or may not win the award, but he's very likely to finish either first or second in the voting. That would grant the Padres a bonus draft pick in 2025 at the end of the first round because he started the season in the major leagues.

Paul Skenes

Can a 22-year-old with 21 career MLB starts already be considered the best pitcher in baseball? Skenes has the numbers and the pedigree to make that claim. The Pirates selected him with the first overall pick in the 2023 draft. He made his MLB debut on May 11 and has composed a 2.07 ERA over 126 innings with 158 strikeouts. His 5.6 rWAR is third in the NL and could rise to second place after his scheduled start tomorrow.

It's amazing how quickly Skenes has dominated the best hitters in the world. In two of his first 11 starts, he allowed no hits at all, lasting six innings on May 17—his second-ever start—and seven innings on July 11. He was the National League's starting pitcher in the All-Star Game despite only two months of MLB experience.

He features six different pitches, but the star of the show is his blazing fastball. His four-seamer averages 99 mph, which is the fastest in MLB by a starting pitcher. This makes his breaking and offspeed weapons even more unhittable because batters need to be ready for his heater.

Unlike the Padres with Merrill, the Pirates will not be eligible for a draft pick if Skenes finishes in the top two of the voting because they refused to include him on the Opening Day roster. This was a questionable decision at best and blatant service time manipulation at worst. By letting him stay in the minors for six weeks—where we posted a 0.99 ERA in seven Triple-A starts— they will delay his free agency until 2031 instead of 2030.

Dark Horse Candidates

Merrill and Skenes will most likely finish in the top two spots in the voting, but Milwaukee Brewers center fielder Jackson Chourio and St. Louis Cardinals shortstop Masyn Winn have outside chances of surpassing them.

Chourio signed an eight-year, $82 million contract with two more club option years this offseason. This virtually guaranteed his minor-league days were over, but he struggled out of the gate, carrying a .254 on-base percentage through the end of May. Since then, he has hit .300 with 16 home runs, bringing his overall batting line to .271/.325/.471. At 20 years old, he is the youngest player ever to record 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases in a season.

Winn actually has a slight edge over Merrill in rWAR, leading him 4.1 to 4.0. His batting line is .269/.315/.408, which is respectable, but his 100 OPS+ indicates his offense is league-average. He only has a slim chance at the Rookie of the Year, but he could claim the Gold Glove Award, as he's one of four NL players with at least 2.0 defensive rWAR.