Jake Hadley vs. Cam Smotherman prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 99
Jake Hadley (11-3) has gone 3-3 inside the UFC since 2022. After losing consecutive fights, he comes into this bout following a recent win over Caolan Loughran where he was overweight on the scales. He'll look to build upon that performance against a new last-minute opponent following Hiestand's injury. Hadley stands 5'7′′ with a 70-inch reach.
Cam Smotherman (11-4) will be making his UFC debut on short notice in this bout. He couldn't find the win on his DWCS appearance in 2023, but he's since won three straight fights in Fury FC and received the call to step in for this bout. Given his recent activity, he should be ready for this moment as the betting underdog. Smotherman stands 5'9′′ with a 69-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vegas 99 Odds , courtesy of FanDuel.
UFC Vegas 99 Odds: Jake Hadley-Cam Smotherman Odds
Jake Hadley: -520
Cam Smotherman: +350
Over 2.5 rounds: N/A
Under 2.5 rounds: N/A
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Why Jake Hadley Will Win
Jake Hadley is coming in off a win where he looked extremely solid against a young prospect like Caolan Loughran. He'll see another similar matchup in the young prospect Smotherman as he'll be looking to use his UFC experience as an advantage during this fight. Jake Hadley has dealt with tough competition like Cody Durden and Charles Johnson, so he certainly has the edge over Smotherman in seeing more fight time at a higher level. He's the rightful favorite heading into this matchup if he's able to stick to his game plan.
Despite his weight issues, Hadley looked very impressive in his last bout and was patient not to force the action against an eager opponent. He'll have to shift his focus and come up with new game plan for the athletic Smotherman, but Hadley should have the edge in the grappling exchanges and should have the faster hands opposite his opponent. If he's able to control the pace while not getting behind on the scorecards, Hadley should once again rise to the occasion during this fight.
Why Cam Smotherman Will Win
Cam Smotherman wasn't lucky enough to find a win during his DWCS audition as he dropped his bout to Charalampos Grigoriou. He didn't give up on his hopes, however, as he managed three consecutive victories and two finishes in Fury FC, maintaining himself on the UFC's radar. He'll have less than a week to prepare for this fight, but the idea is that he's in shape and ready to finally make the most of his UFC opportunity. He comes in as the No. 5-ranked Bantamweight prospect in the North American regional circuit.
With an 11-3 record in Fury, Cam Smotherman has experience as a former champion and has fought some of the best competition the organization has to offer. While he couldn't secure a UFC contract initially, the expectation is that he's gotten much better and his skills should be more refined ahead of this one. He's very quick when it comes to throwing his hands in front and he's very adept at defending himself from the wrestling Hadley is bound to pressure him with.
Final Jake Hadley-Cam SmothermanPrediction & Pick
The UFC had to step in and save this fight with Cam Smotherman after Brady Hiestand pulled out due to injury, so Jake Hadley will have to pivot his game plan and adjust to the new opponent. Jake Hadley is very patient with his striking, but uses it all to set up his takedowns into ground control. On a short notice camp, he should look to find top position against Smotherman and begin his attack from there. Smotherman won't offer too much resistance once he's already down, so Hadley has a clear path to victory in this one.
Cam Smotherman should prove to be the better boxer and we've seen his hands grow increasingly dangerous over his last few fights. If he's able to work his takedown defense and counter with some hard shots to Hadley's head, Smotherman should be able to stun his opponent and jump for an opportunistic finish.
However, Jake Hadley has the edge in experience and this isn't something he hasn't faced before. I expect him to take control in this fight with his takedowns as he works towards a three-round decision.
