Jones: AFC playoff race is not what we expected. Will Chiefs have control when it’s over?
The mighty have faltered, and in some cases, they’ve outright fallen with two-thirds of the NFL season in the books.
When the 2023 campaign kicked off, the balance of power seemed to lean greatly in the direction of the American Football Conference. Boasting powerhouse teams (at least on paper) led by accomplished and well-respected head coaches and the majority of the league’s premier quarterbacks, AFC teams made their counterparts in the NFC look rather inferior.
When the preseason Super Bowl odds came out, six of the top 10 teams and eight of the top 12 (the Kansas City Chiefs , Buffalo Bills , Cincinnati Bengals , New York Jets , Baltimore Ravens , Miami Dolphins , Los Angeles Chargers and Jacksonville Jaguars ) hailed from the AFC.
But there’s a reason why they play the games.
As the NFL enters the 12th of its 18-week regular season, many of those leading teams have fallen prey to debilitating injuries, unexpected regression and/or growing pains. Struggles have dealt some of those teams’ championship hopes a serious blow while the seasons of others essentially are lost already.
Meanwhile, with the Philadelphia Eagles , Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers appearing to only grow stronger entering the homestretch of the season, this just might be shaping up to be the year of the NFC as the AFC teams limp to the finish.
These are the AFC teams that would make the playoffs if the season ended today:
This, of course, wasn’t at all how things were supposed to play out.
Aaron Rodgers was supposed to pull a Tom Brady and deliver the long-suffering Jets a Lombardi Trophy. And if not him, Joe Burrow and the Bengals or Josh Allen and the Bills were supposed to finally deliver before their salary-cap related windows of opportunity slammed shut. Deshaun Watson was supposed to make the Cleveland Browns relevant. Offensive coordinator Kellen Moore was supposed to put the Chargers over the hump while Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs fought to fend them all off.
But given all of the potholes, roadblocks and dead ends many of the projected AFC front-runners have encountered, not even the most devoted the conspiracy theorists could still believe the NFL is a seasonlong scripted production.
Drama is certainly good for business. But there’s no way scriptwriters would level such calamities against some of the most marketable and beloved stars in the game.
No one is twisted enough to order a season-ending injury for Rodgers just four snaps into his Jets tenure and punish everyone with weeks and weeks of Zach Wilson struggles.
No one would have hit Watson and Burrow with season-ending injuries within days of each other. No one would have potentially disrupted the momentum the Ravens were building before Mark Andrews’ cracked fibula and ankle ligament injury, the former of which could end his season .
Would writers really have kept one of the other league darlings, Justin Herbert , shackled by Brandon Staley’s suspect game management skills and defensive strategies ? These issues have been a factor in why the Chargers have lost all six games by 4 points or fewer. And what’s fun about turning the Bills’ Allen into an interception-prone gunslinger, or reducing the Chiefs’ scoring powers?
There is no script. Only an ever-unpredictable roller-coaster that churns mercilessly, leaving regrets, woulda-coulda-shouldas and wait-till-next-years in its wake.
Hope is bleak for the Bengals and Chargers, and nonexistent for the Jets.
The door remains open, though, for the Chiefs, Bills or Ravens. As long as their starting QBs are healthy, those three teams always have hope. Yes, even Buffalo. Despite his league-high 12 interceptions, Allen also boasts the most touchdown passes, with 22.
But all of those teams have warts.
It’s hard to bet against Andy Reid and Mahomes, but it’s also hard for the Chiefs to operate with the same potency without a threat to ease pressure on Travis Kelce . They won a Super Bowl without Tyreek Hill . But who would’ve guessed that losing JuJu Smith-Schuster to free agency would have hurt worse?
Inconsistency at wide receiver is the biggest thing keeping the Chiefs from annihilating opponents — Rashee Rice , Marquez Valdes-Scantling , Kadarius Toney and Mecole Hardman all rank among the league leaders in dropped passes. Valdes-Scantling failed to hang on to a gift-wrapped pass from Mahomes in the fourth quarter that would have given the Chiefs a late (and potentially game-winning) touchdown against the Eagles Monday night. Kansas City, shut out in the second half of a third straight game, has endured such futile displays all season long.
Ever the good soldier, Mahomes refused to criticize his pass-catchers after the 21-17 loss . The Chiefs have seven games to become more sure-handed, but by season’s end, they may regret not making a more meaningful trade-deadline move than reuniting with Hardman.
Fortunately for Kansas City, the other leading contenders for an AFC title also have their struggles.
Sean McDermott fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey and promoted quarterbacks coach Joe Brady to play-caller, hoping he can help Allen find greater consistency. The Bills, though, have almost no reliable playmakers outside of Stefon Diggs and thus could struggle to win a shootout in the playoffs.
The Ravens will be tested without Andrews, but they do have a few young, promising receivers along with veteran Odell Beckham Jr. Lamar Jackson and his committee of running backs also remain effective in the rushing department.
Suddenly, the pressing question in the AFC is whether anyone has the weapons to keep pace with the Dolphins’ offense and remain a step ahead of their ever-improving defense. Yet Mike McDaniel’s squad, which is 2-9 against playoff teams in the last two seasons combined, has yet to prove it can beat anyone good.
The Jaguars remain in the picture, but with a loss to the Chiefs and lopsided defeats to the Texans and 49ers, they don’t seem ready for prime time. The Texans forcing their way into the playoff picture far sooner than anyone anticipated and the Broncos’ four straight victories also muddies the AFC picture.
Meanwhile, the Eagles, Lions and 49ers are the clear leaders in the NFC. They can go toe-to-toe with any team regardless of conference. But don’t count out the Dallas Cowboys as they jockey for position in a pack that includes the New Orleans Saints , Seattle Seahawks and Minnesota Vikings .
Things will sort themselves out over the course of the next seven weeks, but it’s anyone’s guess as to how the AFC pecking order shakes out. A war of attrition just might wind up being the most fitting description for the suddenly beleaguered conference.
(Photos of Mike McDaniel, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen: Alex Grimm and Timothy T Ludwig / )
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