Kamala Harris' Chances of Beating Donald Trump in Pennsylvania: Polls
The battle for Pennsylvania remains tight in the race for the Oval Office, although Vice President Kamala Harris has held the advantage in a handful of polls since September 10, when she tangled with former President Donald Trump under the bright lights of a Philadelphia stage in the presidential debate.
Harris has been on a hot streak since, and her lead across national polling has only grown over the past week or so, with pollster FiveThirtyEight finding the vice president leading by 2.8 percentage points as of Friday on average.
Harris' strong debate performance has also translated into a polling boost in Pennsylvania, a critical battleground state that has the chance of tipping the election in November.
In a survey released Friday by Spotlight PA and MassINC, the vice president was shown to be leading Trump by 4 percentage points (50 percent to 46 percent). The poll, conducted from September 12 to September 18, also found that Harris has a higher favorability rating than her GOP opponent: While 49 percent of Pennsylvania voters have a favorable view of Harris, only 44 percent said the same of Trump.
Other polling has given Harris a more modest lead in the Keystone State. In a survey released Friday by Morning Consult, Harris was ahead 2 percentage points (49 percent to 47 percent) based on the responses of 1,756 likely voters from September 9 to September 18. Another poll released Thursday by Emerson College and The Hill found the Democratic nominee leading 48 percent to 47 percent, based on the responses of 880 likely voters from September 15 to September 18.
A poll by The Washington Post in the days following the debate found Harris and Trump even at 48 percent in Pennsylvania, according to the response of 1,003 likely voters from September 12 to September 16. But in a survey conducted on the same days from The New York Times and Siena College, one of America's top pollsters, Harris was given a 4-point lead on Trump, winning 50 percent to 46 percent in Pennsylvania.
The positive polling streak has translated to Harris receiving a boost in her chances of winning in the fall. While American pollster Nate Silver previously predicted Trump to have a better chance of securing enough Electoral College votes for victory, since the debate, the outlook for Trump has worsened, per Silver's election forecast model.
As of Friday, Silver predicts that Harris has a 51.1 percent chance of winning in November, while Trump holds a 48.6 percent chance. Silver's model also gives Harris a better chance of winning Pennsylvania (53.7 percent to 46.3 percent).
Per FiveThirtyEight's election simulator as of Friday, Harris has a 60 percent chance of winning, while Trump has a 40 percent chance. FiveThirtyEight also gave Harris a brighter result in Pennsylvania, with its simulator finding the vice president winning 58 out of 100 times and Trump victorious 42 out of 100 times.
