Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles AL Wild Card Game 1 odds, picks and predictions
Kansas City RoyalsBaltimore Orioles clash Tuesday in Charm City as they swing into the postseason. First pitch in the opener of their best-of-3 AL Wild Card Series at Oriole Park at Camden Yards is slated for 4 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's MLB odds around the Royals vs. Orioles odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Regular-season series: Orioles won 4 of 6 games
Kansas City (86-76) overcame a pair of late-season losing streaks to earn the No. 2 AL Wild Card slot. The Royals sport an average offense but a top-notch pitching-and-defense combo. Kansas City's 3.98 runs per game allowed ranks 6th in MLB.
Baltimore (91-71) was under-.500 (34-38) over its last 72 games, but did finish September on a strong note. The Orioles swept the Minnesota Twins over the weekend and went 5-1 over their last 6 games. Baltimore is the No. 1 AL Wild Card.
Royals at Orioles projected starters
Cole Ragans vs. RHP Corbin Burnes
Ragans made 32 starts this season, going 11-9 with a 3.14 /9 and 10.8 K/9 in 186 1/3 IP.
Burnes made 32 starts, going 15-9, with a 2.92 /9 and 8.4 K/9 in 194 1/3 IP.
Royals at Orioles odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook ; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds . Lines last updated Monday at 9:18 p.m. ET.
Royals at Orioles picks and predictions
Orioles 5, Royals 3
PASS: look to the run line for a best-value opportunity.
Run line/Against the spread
The Orioles are 8-2 over their last 10 games while Kansas City is just 4-9 with a .531 OPS over its last 13 games. And the Royals are 1-3 over their last 4 series openers.
Ragans has benefitted from some low batting-average-on-balls-in-play figures of late. Per ESPN, current Baltimore bats own an aggregate .837 OPS against him.
Burnes has a postseason pedigree. Per ESPN, current K.C. bats own an aggregate .595 OPS against him.
Baltimore righting the ship late should give the Orioles a shot of confidence in this October opener.
(+155).
Over/Under
The Over is 4-2-1 across the last 7 series meetings. The last 5 Baltimore games have seen the Over cash 4 times (4-1).
The pitching matchup here certainly has the potential to make the rested-bullpen opener a pitchers' duel. But recency bias has the bats not getting quite enough attention (or more likely has the pitchers getting just too much sway).
Consider a partial-unit play on the OVER 7 (+100).
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