Kevin Gorman’s Take 5: Pirates phenom Paul Skenes throws a changeup into rookie storyline
Paul Skenes has been one of the biggest stories in baseball this season, yet the Pittsburgh Pirates phenomenal rookie right-hander continues to outdo himself on a regular basis.
When there were comparisons hyping the anticipation of the No. 1 overall pick of the 2023 MLB Draft's major league debut to Stephen Strasburg, Skenes struck out 11 over six no-hit innings in his second start.
When it became about the ease with which he touched and topped triple digits with his four-seam fastball and struck out MVPs Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani the first time he faced the Los Angeles Dodgers, Skenes shifted the storylines to the sudden success of his splinker as the splitter-sinker hybrid quickly became a putaway pitch.
When there was wonder how he would follow a first half in which he was 6-0 with a 1.90 ERA and 0.92 WHIP in 11 starts and was named the starting pitcher for the National League in the All-Star Game, Skenes started showcasing another pitch with devastating results.
As if major league hitters don't have enough to worry about against Skenes, he made the Cincinnati Reds look silly by throwing a changeup that generated seven whiffs, including six for strikeouts. It's not a new pitch, just one Skenes rarely was required to use against college hitters.
"I'm just throwing it more," Skenes said. "It's the same pitch I've been throwing since college. It's just we just figured out how to use it better."
That Skenes threw the changeup eight times had SportsNet Pittsburgh studio analysts Michael McKenry and Steven Brault raving about how impressive and improbable it was to see his results.
"Obviously you see it's a good changeup," Brault said on the postgame show Sunday after Skenes had nine strikeouts without a walk over five scoreless innings in the 2-0 win over the Reds. "It's a really good pitch. People can't hit it very well. But the efficiency with which to use it to get the swings and misses and get six strikeouts on it out of seven whiffs means he knows the best times to use it. He's executing it in situations that work with the sequencing he is going with against hitters. There's a level of maturity here that you don't see."
Brault made 52 starts over seven seasons in the majors, including six with the Pirates from 2016-21, was talking about how it was something he could never do when McKenry interjected.
"NOBODY is doing this!" shouted McKenry, who spent seven seasons as a major league catcher, including three with the Pirates (2011-13).
McKenry illustrated his point: The Reds failed to put four of Skenes' six pitch offerings into play. Of his 73 pitches, 49 were either splinkers (26) or four-seam fastballs (23). Cincinnati couldn't hit his changeup, curveball or slider and, per Statcast, fouled off two of his 11 sweepers.
No wonder Pirates manager Derek Shelton was even more emphatic about his pregame endorsement of Skenes for NL rookie of the year after that performance by saying he deserves to win the honor even though it would make this season count as a full year of service.
"No. 1, he's special. We all know that," Shelton said on the SportsNet Pittsburgh postgame show. "The thing that makes me proud is he continues to evolve. The changeup today was elite. You don't see a guy in their rookie year who is able to throw multiple weapons at you and just continue to get better. That's what I'm proud of."
Shelton said that Skenes was scheduled to pitch five innings, which might explain his efficiency and aggressiveness from the outset.
After giving up a leadoff single to Jonathan India, Skenes struck out the next three batters and four of the first eight he faced. By the end of the fourth, he had eight strikeouts.
"He knew going in it was going to be five, so I think it's something where he went out and attacked," Shelton said. "It was refreshing to see."
Even more refreshing is something Shelton slipped into an answer, noting that it was Skenes' "second-to-last start" of the season. That indicates that Skenes is on track to make his final start this weekend at the New York Yankees.
Skenes has pitched 158 1/3 innings this year, including 27 1/3 at Triple-A Indianapolis. That's 19 more innings than he threw last year, when he tossed 122 2/3 innings over 19 starts in leading LSU to the College World Series championship and 6 2/3 innings over five starts across three levels of the minor leagues.
The Pirates have been careful with their management of his workload, having the 22-year-old Skenes pitch on five and six days of rest throughout the season and have kept close watch to make sure fatigue didn't become a factor.
That Skenes averaged 99.1 mph on his fastball and topped triple digits twice against the Reds was a sign that he feels strong.
"There was some hundreds in there," Shelton said. "It just shows you how he takes care of his body, and that's important."
Another important development for Skenes is that he had a fantastic performance without his personal catcher, as it marked the first time since late May that Yasmani Grandal wasn't calling games from behind the plate for Skenes.
Grandal has served as Skenes' game mentor, catching 19 of his first 21 starts, including 17 consecutive.
But Shelton started Joey Bart against the Reds, marking his first time catching Skenes in a game since May 23. Skenes allowed one run on six hits and one walk with three strikeouts in a 7-6 loss to the San Francisco Giants, a game that saw Bart hit a three-run homer against his former team before the bullpen blew it.
Bart compared catching Skenes' changeup to that of Kevin Gausman, with the way he tunneled the pitch with his splinker.
"It was pretty devastating," Bart said of Skenes. "He's got 100-mph, plenty of offerings to get in the zone and put guys away. It's one of those things where we try it, see if it's working and we rock with it. That's kind of what we did."
The only other game Skenes had a catcher other than Grandal was on May 29 at Detroit, when Grant Koch made his first career start and Skenes had nine strikeouts against one walk in allowing two runs on three hits in six innings in a 10-2 win over the Tigers.
"We have really good catchers," Skenes said. "Yaz has taken care of me all year, Joey today. Just being able to talk through it and recognize what (the Reds were) trying to do and do the opposite of that. Obviously, with the third time seeing them you've got to get them out in different ways than I have in the past. We did a good job of adjusting to that today. I've got to build off it."
Shelton also confirmed that rookie right-hander Jared Jones also is on track to take his final turn in the rotation this weekend, despite a noticeable dip in velocity on Saturday.
Jones saw his average fastball velocity drop from 97.3 mph to 95.9 and was sitting in the low 90s in his fifth and final inning of the 7-1 loss. One was clocked at 85 mph, which prompted Shelton and assistant trainer Tony Leo to make a mound visit.
Shelton pointed to Jones' breaking balls remaining sharp as evidence that there was no sign of injury.
"As of now, there's plans for him to make his next start," Shelton said pregame on 93.7 The Fan. "If something were to pop up, we would adjust. But, for now, we're planning on him starting."
Both Brault and McKenry seemed skeptical on Saturday, noting that Jones repeatedly raised his right arm above his head in an apparent attempt to stretch his right lat. That's the injury that caused Jones to spend six-plus weeks on the injured list from early July to late August.
Pirates assistant general manager Kevan Graves, filling in for his boss Sunday on the Ben Cherington Show, said that Jones is healthy and added that "there's no pain, no indication of an injury."
There was no surprise when Graves and Shelton both confirmed that Gold Glove third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes won't return in time to play games for the Pirates this season.
Hayes went on the injured list with low back inflammation on Aug. 19, and has sought second opinions for how to treat his lumbar spine issues that have plagued him the past two seasons.
"The thing that I hear there is I'm happy how he's progressed," Shelton said. "When you're dealing with a back issue, it's something important. He's been extremely diligent with his program. He looks good. He's moving better, which is really important. We need him to go into the offseason healthy with the back so he can work on the things that he needs to work on."
It marks the second time in four major league seasons that Hayes has played fewer than 100 games. Hayes played 96 games in 2022, when he missed two months with a left hand/wrist injury, then topped 100 in both 2022 (136) and last year (124) before being limited to 96 games this season.
Graves said the Pirates are counting on Hayes at third base next season, despite career-worst offensive totals of .233/.283/.290 with nine doubles, four home runs and 11 RBIs in 94 starts there. By comparison, Jared Triolo is batting .212/.287/.333 with four doubles, six homers and 28 RBIs in 58 starts at third base.
"Obviously disappointed we're not going to get him back on the field because he's a big part of what we're doing," Shelton said of Hayes. "But I think when we've seen him healthy over the course of the last couple years, it's been really good. We just need to make sure that he's healthy."
Graves said Endy Rodriguez, who is returning from Tommy John surgery, "felt a little something" in his right forearm and was removed from Friday's game for Triple-A Indianapolis.
Graves said the Pirates put Rodriguez through a full exam and called it "good news" that there's "nothing structural with the repaired elbow."
Graves cautioned that it might be general fatigue for the switch-hitting Rodriguez, who has gradually increased his workload from batting from the left side to serving as designated hitter and first baseman at Pirate City to returning behind the plate at Double-A Altoona and Indianapolis this month.
But, like Hayes, Rodriguez is done for the season.
