Kevin Kiley vs. Jessica Morse for Congress: Why analysts are watching this California race
Nonpartisan election analysts are tracking the 2024 race for California's 3rd Congressional District as one that might become close in November.
Their eyes are especially on future elections as the Lake Tahoe district grows slowly bluer.
Analysts at nonpartisan organizations including The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball say that the district will likely, but not definitely, pick incumbent Rep. Kevin Kiley, R-Roseville, over Democrat Jessica Morse, a wildfire resiliency specialist.
Stay Informed On Election News
Sign up here to get our Election 2024 newsletter, with local, state and national political news and analysis sent right to your inbox.
Over the last year, The Bee has spoken to analysts across these organizations. Ten California House races are on analysts' watch lists, including the one for the 3rd.
While it's rated as likely Republican, analysts are still tracking it due to demographic changes in the district.
"Kiley's seat is trending left slowly," said Jacob Rubashkin, deputy editor of Inside Elections, in an August interview. Still, he doesn't expect it to flip this cycle, calling it a "reach seat" for Democrats.
Several California congressional contests will help decide whether Democrats or Republicans control the House of Representatives in 2025.
There are 220 Republicans, 211 Democrats and four vacancies in the House. Three of those empty seats were held by Democrats, one by a Republican. The number for control of the chamber is 218, meaning Democrats need to flip four seats nationwide to win control of the House.
California's 3rd Congressional District
The district stretches from the northern Sierra Nevada along the Nevada border into Death Valley, taking in Alpine, Inyo, Mono, Nevada, Placer, Plumas and Sierra counties plus parts of El Dorado, Sacramento and Yuba counties.
Among other areas, the district incorporates the northeastern suburbs of Sacramento, including Roseville, Folsom and Rocklin, and the mountain towns of South Lake Tahoe, Truckee and Mammoth Lakes.
Kiley, 39, served in the California State Assembly from 2016 to 2022. He was elected to Congress in 2022.
He serves on the powerful House Judiciary Committee. He also is a member of committees on transportation and infrastructure and education and the workforce, serving as chair of the Subcommittee on Workforce Protections.
Kiley, who grew up in the Sacramento area, was a 10th-grade English teacher in Los Angeles after college. He later attended law school and helped prosecute a civil case against China's Huawei Technologies for intellectual property theft as part of California-based law firm Irell and Manella. He was also a California deputy attorney general.
In response to voter guide questions during the primary, Kiley said he aimed to "to rein in the excessive federal spending that created the inflation crisis crushing California families."
"Shortly after taking office, I helped pass the Fiscal Responsibility Act, which made a $2.1 trillion down payment on that promise — the largest single deficit reduction in U.S. history," he said. "I support having Congress balance its budget just as families have to do, and I'm working to remove waste, fraud and abuse from the federal budget."
Morse, 42, was previously a Deputy Secretary for Forest and Wildland Resilience at the California Natural Resources Agency. Recently, the Democrat was a member of the bipartisan federal Wildland Fire Mitigation and Management Commission which made recommendations on forest management and other measures to lessen the severity of wildfires.
She said Congress needs to do more wildfire mitigation work, including investing more funds into forest thinning, fuel breaks and prescribed fire. She previously ran and lost against Rep. Tom McClintock, R-Elk Grove, in 2018.
Morse, a Democrat, said in an interview that she grew up Republican and remained one into her 30s.
"I grew up as a conservative who believed that, let's be efficient with our dollars, let's be fiscally responsible," Morse said. "But I also believed in protecting public land and the environment, and I started seeing the Republican Party shift away from being a ballast for fiscal responsibility and into culture wars and anti protection of clean air and clean water."
She said public service was instilled in her core values as a child raised in Carmichael, ultimately leading her to the U.S. Agency for International Development in Iraq in her early 20s and various wildfire public service roles.
"It's always been about how we keep our community safe, how we keep the public safe, and how we actually try to mitigate crises before they start," she said.
Kiley and Morse have had similar fundraising recently, but the Republican retains an edge in overall funds.
While campaign finances are far from the only factor in determining an election, cash on hand lets candidates spend more on advertisements, events and other supplies necessary to a campaign. It's also good to reserve money in case of unexpected issues.
Campaign funds come from a wide range of sources, including those not specified in the candidate's official report, from individual donors, political action committees, other lawmakers and joint-fundraising groups.
Kiley's campaign committee raised more than $579,000 from the beginning of April to end of June, according to the most recent Federal Election Commission reports, which became available in July. Morse's reported collecting almost $610,000 in that same time period.
Kiley reported over $2.2 million in reserves. Morse, under $1.4 million.
