Key Factors that Led to a Second Trump Presidency
Overview: Former President Donald Trump has won the presidential seat with 292 electoral votes, despite being convicted of 34 felony counts in May and being impeached twice. Trump's anti-immigration rhetoric and promises to enact mass deportations appear to have been key factors in his popularity among the Republican party and voters. Harris's reluctance to openly call for a ceasefire in Gaza and and appeal to Latino voters may have been factors that also cost her votes.
Breanna Reeves
Former President Donald Trump will return to the White House once more as the 47th President of the United States. Despite being convicted of 34 felony counts in May and being impeached twice, President-elect Trump clinched the presidential seat with 292 electoral votes compared to Vice President Kamala Harris's 224 votes.
Harris formerly conceded the election on Nov. 6, addressing her speech at her alma mater, Howard University.
"While I concede this election, I do not concede the fight that fueled this campaign," said Harris. "The fight for freedom, for opportunity, for fairness and for the dignity of all people, a fight for the ideals at the heart of our nation, the ideals that reflect America at our best — that is a fight I will never give up."
Trump's history of divisive rhetoric and racist comments appeared not to be a deterrent for voters this election season as frustrations grew over the economy, namely inflation.
According to exit poll data gathered by CNN, Trump prevailed among voters who identify as male (55%), white (57%), white women (53%) and Latino men (55%). CNN's exit poll data includes interviews with more than 20,000 voters, both those who cast a ballot on Election Day and those who voted early or absentee. While exit polls contain some margins for error and should be treated as estimates, they provide a look at how voters think and behave across the country.
As president-elect Trump prepares to head back to The White House on Jan. 21, 2025, consider some of the factors that led to him winning the electoral vote, and potentially the popular vote as the Republican nominee (the first to win this vote since George W. Bush in 2004):
Concerns about the economy and immigration
Trump's anti-immigration rhetoric appears to have been one of the key factors in driving his popularity among the Republican Party and voters. Trump has been outspoken about immigration in the U.S., as noted during the only 2024 presidential debate in which he verbally attacked Haitian immigrants and the promises he's made to enact mass deportations .
According to CNN's exit poll, immigration was the top issue among Trump supporters, with 90% of respondents prioritizing immigration compared to 9% of Harris supporters. Eighty-seven percent of Trump respondents agreed that "most undocumented immigrants in the U.S. should be: deported" compared to 11% of Harris supporters who agree.
Trump reached demographics Harris didn't
After President Joe Biden's exit from the 2024 presidential campaign and his subsequent endorsement of Harris, Harris hit the ground running and headed for the campaign trail. With just three months to campaign before Election Day, Harris prioritized Black male voters and introduced her Opportunity Economy plan, but in doing so, she failed to appeal to Latino voters.
Although Harris claimed 53% of Latino votes, Trump secured about 46% of the vote compared to 32% in 2020 – a significant increase, according to CNN's 2020 exit polls .
Her reluctance to openly call for a ceasefire in Gaza and actively engage in discussing a conflict resolution with Arab and Muslim communities about the genocide in Gaza also cost her votes.
Dearborn, Michigan is the largest city with an Arab majority in the U.S., with 55% of the population identifying as Middle Eastern or having North African roots, according to the latest census data. Michigan was one of the 10 key swing states — one that Trump won.
The gender gap prevailed
The 2024 Presidential Election is the first election following the overturning of Roe v. Wade and abortion was a hot topic across most swing states. Since Roe was struck down, dozens of states have enacted trigger laws, enforcing near and total abortion bans.
According to a policy analysis by the Guttmacher Institute, with President-elect Trump's past history of targeting reproductive rights, his team has laid out plans to eliminate gender-affirming care for minors; reverse protections against discrimination for those seeking health care; and defund Planned Parenthood.
CNN's exit poll data reported that 96% of Trump voters responded that they trust Trump more to handle abortion. Part of Trump's policy agenda for abortion has meant returning power to states as demonstrated by the Trump-appointed Supreme Court Justices ruling to strike down Roe. Abortion was a hot button issue in this election where abortion was on the ballot across 10 states — seven of which voted to support abortion rights.
With abortion restrictions still in place across several states and abortion bans in others, Trump managed to still clench the votes of 45% of female voters, according to CNN exit poll data.
Trump's views have resonated with notorious "podcast bros" like Joe Rogan, who hosts The Joe Rogan Experience and billionaire businessmen like Elon Musk, who endorsed Trump in July via X and took an active role in his campaign.
Additionally, Trump's history of sexual assault allegations and overall attitudes about women were not as big of a deterrent for voters compared to Harris' gender. A September poll conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Research Center reported that 38% of voters said being a woman would hurt Harris's chances of winning in the election, while 34% percent said her gender will help. Comparatively, 41% said Trump's gender would help his campaign, compared to 13% who said it would hurt his chances.
Many voters viewed Harris as an extension of President Joe Biden's administration
An early analysis of the results by the Brookings Institute noted, "Although Biden's unpopularity burdened her campaign, [Harris] refused to separate herself from him in any way that broke through to persuadable voters."
During her campaign, it was difficult for voters to pinpoint the difference between a Biden-Harris administration and a Harris-Walz administration.
Some voters and Democrats fault Biden, questioning why he didn't exit the presidential race sooner.
"The fact that Biden waited so long to leave the race also worked against Harris. The president's tardy decision deprived her of the opportunity to sharpen her arguments in a primary fight and shortened the time she had to introduce herself to the voters," according to the Brookings Institute.
