La Niña Winter On The Way: What This Means For VA
VIRGINIA — A slowly developing La Niña climate pattern is expected to influence how winter 2024-25 plays out in Northern Virginia after last year's warm El Niño winter.
According to the 2024-25 winter outlook released this week by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center, the forecast in Northern Virginia calls for equal chances of below-average, near-average or above-average seasonal total precipitation from the I-95 corridor from Boston to Washington, D.C.
As for temperatures, NOAA says the state also has equal chances of below-, near- or above-average seasonal temperatures.
The forecast covers the period of December through February.
El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a natural climate pattern that causes predictable changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean. They're not the only factors in weather, but El Niño generally favors warmer, drier weather, while the opposite is true with a La Niña. Either can have an outsized effect during the winter months.
Forecasters originally expected a La Niña to develop late last winter, which turned out to be the warmest on record in the continental U.S. and worldwide.
"If it seems like we've been stuck here in neutral for longer than we expected — we have!" Emily Becker, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Miami, wrote in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's latest La Niña/El Niño blog post.
The climate patterns are predictable, but only in the big picture. Small short-term fluctuations, such as the weaker equatorial trade winds during September, can't be predicted more than a couple of weeks in advance, at best, Becker wrote.
Forecasters still expect La Niña to develop ahead of the start of meteorological winter on Dec. 1 (the winter solstice on Dec. 21 is generally accepted as the official start of the season). But it is expected to be a weak one.
Strong La Niñas are associated with consistent weather throughout the season, but "a weaker event makes it more likely that other weather and climate phenomena could play the role of spoiler," Becker wrote.
Overall, NOAA predicts wetter-than-average conditions for the entire northern tier of the continental U.S., particularly in the Pacific Northwest and the Great Lakes region, along with northern and western Alaska. Drier-than-average conditions are expected from the Four Corners region of the Southwest to the Southeast, Gulf Coast and lower mid-Atlantic states. That could either ease or worsen drought conditions , especially in the central and southern Plains and the Southwest. As of Oct. 17, much of far northern Virginia was experiencing abnormally dry conditions.
"Unfortunately, after a brief period in the spring of 2024 with minimal drought conditions across the country, more than a quarter of the land mass in the continental U.S. is currently in at least a moderate drought," Brad Pugh, operational drought lead with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, said and the statement.
"And the winter precipitation outlook does not bode well for widespread relief," he said.
