Lake-effect snow may start the winter feel next week in Michigan

We’ve been waiting for the feel of winter, whether you like it or not. That feel may finally arrive next week.

We’ve identified a weather pattern that typically produces lake-effect snow over much of Michigan’s snowbelts.

Next week a cold air mass is projected to move southeast across Michigan. With surface water temperatures between 45 degrees and 50 degrees, the water-to-air temperature difference will be large enough for periods of meaningful lake-effect snow.

In the extended period we meteorologists also look for something called cyclonic wind flow. This means the air flow is curved to follow a path like the shape of a “C.” This wind flow creates rotation and develops precipitation.

Here’s a look at the weather set-up next week. It clearly shows you what looks like a classic lake-effect snow pattern.

areas of snow forecasted in six-hour increments from 7 p.m. Monday, November 27 to 7 a.m. Friday, December 1.NOAA

It usually takes a couple of days after the cold air for the whole lake-effect machine to crank up. It looks like sometime between Wednesday and Friday of next week when the areas of lake-effect snow kick in.

Now this isn’t a time period when I can try to nail down exactly how much snow will fall next week. I know most people want to cut straight to how much snow is on the way. What I will say is this will likely be the first snow event this year where several areas from Kalamazoo to the Grand Rapids area to Cadillac to the Grand Traverse area and Petoskey area get three to six inches of snow.

It should be an accumulating snow in what we call the snowbelts.

This would happen in the second half of next week.