Lexington County is frequently cited as one of SC’s fastest growing. Is this true?

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Lexington is one of the fastest growing counties in South Carolina. Or is it?

As the area west of the Congaree River and Columbia and Richland County continues to deal with a variety of new developments and corresponding issues such as maintaining local roads , the quickness of the county's population growth is both frequently cited and frequently questioned by local leaders and residents arguing passionately about how they want the place they call home to look heading into the future.

So, just how fast is Lexington County growing? How does it compare with other counties in South Carolina? And what indicators should we look to when making those determinations?

Part of the fastest growing state

It's first important to consider that Lexington County sits in a state and region where the population is growing quickly, said Jerry Mitchell, chair of the geography department at the University of South Carolina. In 2023, the state was the nation's fastest growing, seeing an uptick of 1.7%.

"The Western and Southwestern and Southeastern parts of the United States are growing faster," Mitchell said, but he noted that this doesn't mean all states in these regions are gaining population.

"Mississippi and Louisiana have lost population. It's not just California, New York," he added. "But South Carolina, depending what time frame you look at, we've been No. 1."

So when Lexington County charts anywhere near the top of the heap for growth in S.C. counties, that means it's growing quickly compared to many other parts of the country.

Look to the census

Mitchell said the most accurate measure of growth is the official U.S. census, done every 10 years. During the most recent frame counted, 2010 to 2020, Lexington's growth rate of 12.04% ranked No. 11 among South Carolina's 46 counties. The county added nearly 32,000 people during that time to claim a 2020 population of nearly 294,000.

During that same period, coastal Horry County, home of Myrtle Beach, topped the list with a growth rate of 30.35%, adding nearly 82,000 people to claim a 2020 population exceeding 351,000.

Estimates are important

A better understanding of trends and short-term growth can be found in the annual estimates the U.S. Census Bureau provides in between its full once-a-decade counts, Mitchell said.

"The census also does something called an American Community Survey, where they survey [more than 3.5 million] households across the country each year, and they make sure they get representation in each state," he said.

The numbers culled from this process say much the same about Lexington County's population increase from 2010 to 2020, as its growth rate of 7.02% between 2010 and 2015 ranked No. 10 in the state and its mark of 7.84% between 2015 and 2020 also ranked No. 10.

U.S. census numbers in more recent years show that Lexington's growth ranking hasn't really changed much.

Estimates show that Lexington grew by 5.3% between 2020 and 2023, gaining more than 15,500 people to claim a population of nearly 310,000 and ranking No. 11 in the state in terms of percentage growth during that stretch. Lexington's rank slips to No. 15 when you look at the numbers from between 2022 and 2023, when the county grew by about 1.4% as it added more than 4,400 people. It remains the state's sixth most populous county.

But Lexington is outpacing its more populated neighbor, Richland County.

Richland's estimated population as of 2023 is more than 425,000, but its growth ranked No. 21 at 2.2% between 2020 and 2023 (adding nearly 9,000 people) and No. 23 at 0.9% between 2022 and 2023 (adding more than 3,600 people).

Percentages can be misleading

Mitchell cautioned that judging growth by percentages doesn't always paint an accurate picture. He pointed to Jasper County, which sat at No. 1 in terms of percentage growth in the state between 2022 and 2023, having grown by 4.9%. But in terms of raw population, it gained fewer than 1,600 people.

"That's like a hiccup," Mitchell said.

When it comes to the sheer number of people added, Jasper ranked No. 16 between 2022 and 2023, while Lexington ranked No. 6 and Richland ranked No. 9. Horry County led the way, ranking No 1 with its addition of more than 14,300 people. (Horry's percentage growth of 3.7% ranked No. 3.)

Looking at the official U.S. census numbers, Lexington's addition of nearly 31,600 between 2010 and 2020 ranked No. 9 in the state, just below Richland's 31,649. Horry topped the list with its nearly 82,000.

Building permits a good predictor

Gregory Sprouse, director of research, planning and development for the Central Midlands Council of Governments, said there's another metric to look at as far as how much a county might grow moving forward.

"We've always felt like residential building permit activity is a pretty good indicator of growth," he said, noting that the Building Industry Association of Central SC maintains a database of these numbers for counties in the Midlands.

According to the association's numbers, compared to its neighbors in Richland and Kershaw County (where the 2023 population was estimated to be nearly 70,000), a lot of building permits are being issued in Lexington County. Every year since 2013, more permits have been issued in Lexington than in Richland:

But it's unclear exactly when and how building permit activity will translate into real growth.

"If you're seeing permits issued now, it doesn't necessarily mean that those same units are going to have certificates of occupancy over the next year," Sprouse said. "Sometimes it can take a lot longer for things to fully build out."