Matt Canada’s exit, Jaguars-Texans in Week 12, Coach of the Year: Our NFL writers discuss
Between Thanksgiving and Black Friday, Week 12 is already well underway in the NFL . But there is still plenty to keep an eye on this weekend. The Athletic’s NFL experts Mike Sando, Jeff Howe and Kalyn Kahler break down what they look forward to most on Sunday and Monday.
Another week, another coordinator change, this time in Pittsburgh with Matt Canada . Was this move overdue? Do you envision the Steelers offense improving this season?
Sando: Yes, I do think it was overdue. Pittsburgh’s offensive points per game went from 19.8 in Canada’s first season (2021) to 17.7 in his second season to 15.0 in his third season. Quarterback Kenny Pickett was getting worse, and it appeared the locker room had lost confidence in what the team was doing on that side of the ball. Bigger picture, the Steelers’ hiring of offensive coordinators in recent years has not measured up to the standard set when Ken Whisenhunt, Bruce Arians and Todd Haley were the choices.
Howe: Yeah, they’ve invested quality draft assets at key offensive positions and rank 28th in scoring, which would mark the third consecutive season of regression in that category under Canada. I can’t predict whether there will be substantial improvement because OC Eddie Faulkner and play caller Mike Sullivan are unproven in these roles at the NFL level, but I do believe there should at least be an added emphasis on utilizing George Pickens and Jaylen Warren to provide a boost. I’m sure that alone would be enough for Steelers fans over the final seven regular-season games.
Kahler: One hundred percent. Players like running back Najee Harris were publicly frustrated with the offense, and I think that played a big role in why this happened in-season, since the Steelers hadn’t fired an assistant coach since the WWII era. This is such an important job because whoever the next OC will be is charged with developing a young quarterback and young receivers, and it was clear this season that Canada was not getting the most out of Pickett. I do think Pittsburgh can improve this year, beginning with calling more passes thrown beyond the sticks. I’m tired of seeing Pickett throw play-action passes a yard past the line of scrimmage.
Texans – Jaguars has huge AFC South implications. Houston beat Jacksonville on the road in Week 3. Who has the edge and what makes the winning difference?
Sando: The Texans have won 10 of the last 11 in the series, which includes splitting with Jacksonville last season, so this can be a dangerous game for the Jaguars. I do think Jacksonville has the better roster and should win the game, but I don’t think the Jaguars have been playing well enough consistently enough on offense to be trusted implicitly.
Howe: This one’s a toss-up. I want to take the Jaguars because they’re a bit more experienced and probably have more overall talent. They’re also 4-0 on the road this season. But it’s hard to pick against the Texans because they’re doing everything well, and they’re definitely the team with the biggest it-factor going right now. I’ll lean with the Jags, but if I’m wrong, I want the readers to know I changed my mind after this story was posted.
Kahler: Houston. The Texans won last week despite a rare three-interception game from rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud . The defense pulled through with a great performance from fellow rookie Will Anderson. I think this will be a really competitive game.
A reeling Chargers team hosts the Ravens on Sunday night. Let’s revisit Brandon Staley on the hot seat. Could L.A. fire him before season’s end if things don’t turn around?
Sando: The only way it makes sense from my standpoint is if the team knows Staley is not returning and wants to give offensive coordinator Kellen Moore an audition in the head-coaching role. That would not be the Chargers’ typical way of operating, and I’m not sure the already struggling defense would be any better off. In these situations, the manner in which a team loses and how the coach handles those losses can play into the decision. The Chargers have been competitive, but they are 0-5 in games decided by three or fewer points. If they start getting blown out, I think an in-season change becomes more realistic.
Howe: So there are two key factors to lay out with this one. First, owner Dean Spanos has never fired a head coach in the middle of a season, and trends like that tend to be reliable. But second — and here’s a perfectly acceptable counterargument — offensive coordinator Kellen Moore leads the team’s most talented unit and is on the verge of becoming a head coach somewhere. This might be the ideal chance to give him an audition. If the Chargers lose to the Ravens this weekend, the ensuing Patriots -Broncos-Raiders stretch would be a nice time to create momentum.
Kahler: This one is really a toss-up. Staley’s weird overly-defensive reaction to reporters asking if he will keep calling the defense makes me think that change is coming soon, but if we look back to Anthony Lynn’s career as head coach, he got shut out 45-0 in Week 13 at home against the Patriots and wasn’t fired until after the season ended. It makes a lot of sense to give Moore a shot at the interim job, and that might be the deciding factor.
A Bills team trying to regain its swagger is up next for the Eagles . Did Philadelphia cement itself as the league’s best team with Monday’s win over the Chiefs , or do others still have a case?
Sando: No one is cementing anything in Week 12. I see the Eagles and Chiefs as the best teams in the league, and think Kansas City would probably win most of the time on a neutral field. Think how many things the Chiefs had to do so poorly to barely lose that game. That said I do worry about the Chiefs’ offensive weaponry and think Kansas City is especially vulnerable in that area if injuries continue to diminish Travis Kelce . I like the Eagles’ position in that regard.
Howe: The Eagles should be No. 1 in everyone’s power rankings , and they’ll have an opportunity to pad their polling numbers in the next three against Buffalo, San Francisco and Dallas . I still think the 49ers, Cowboys, Chiefs and Ravens have legitimate Super Bowl aspirations, and the Bills have a chance to play their way back into the conversation. And it’s too early to rule out a run from the Jaguars, Lions and Dolphins.
Kahler: Yes, I think they did. They struggled to get things going on offense in the first half at a very loud Arrowhead Stadium but fixed those communication issues in the second half and got their run game going again. I think Philadelphia is the clear No. 1 right now, but I’ll be looking forward to seeing the rematch with the Cowboys, who have dominated inferior opponents as of late, and whose offense has looked much improved post-bye.
Who is your Coach of the Year and why?
Sando: Answering this question during the season can turn the exercise into a “Coach of the Past Month” contest. We naturally want to favor the coach whose team looked the best most recently. Mike McDaniel was my choice at the season’s midpoint, with Dan Campbell and John Harbaugh right behind him. I still like the jobs those coaches have done, but it’s getting harder to ignore Nick Sirianni’s 9-1 record with the Eagles. Philly owns the NFL’s best record and has covered the point spread at the highest rate. Those are strong indicators through 10 games.
Howe: Right now, it’s Sirianni because he’s the Liquid IV to the Super Bowl hangover and has led the Eagles to the league’s best record after losing both coordinators to head coaching jobs. If they win 15 games, I don’t know how it’s not Sirianni ...
UNLESS ... the Texans win the AFC South or maybe even qualify for the playoffs. DeMeco Ryans is building something special in Houston. The award will come down to those two.
Kahler: I can’t believe I am saying this, but Sean Payton?? If Denver makes the playoffs, I think he’s got a real shot because the transformation between the 2022 Broncos and the 2023 Broncos Week 7-11 is huge. Russell Wilson is playing better, and to take the team from a 1-5 start and the most embarrassing loss in modern NFL memory, to their current 5-5 record has been stunning. That 70-20 loss might outright disqualify him, but if we can look past that and Denver keeps winning, I think Payton has a case.
(Top photos of Nick Sirianni, Trevor Lawrence and C.J. Stroud: Erick W. Rasco, Mike Carlson and Tim Warner / )
