Matthew Semelsberger vs. Charles Radtke prediction, odds, pick for UFC Vegas 100
The UFC is back in the Apex from Las Vegas as we bring you another betting prediction and pick for the upcoming fight card. This next bout takes place in the Welterweight (170) Division and features Matthew Semelsberger of Maryland taking on Wisconsin's own Charles Radtke. Check out our UFC odds series for our Semelsberger-Radtke prediction and pick.
Matthew Semelsberger (11-7) has gone 5-5 since joining the UFC in 2020. After a strong start through his first couple of years, Semelsberger has lost his last three fights heading into this one, dropping one by TKO and two via decision. He'll look for his first win since 2022 as the underdog here. Semelsberger stands 6'1′′ with a 75-inch reach.
Charles Radtke (9-4) has gone 2-1 in the UFC since his debut last year. After back-to-back wins over Mike Mathetha and Gilbert Urbina, he suffered his first loss at the hands of Carlos Prates with a TKO loss most recently. He'll look to get a win back on his record as the betting favorite in this matchup. Radtke stands 5'9′′ with a 72-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vegas 100 Odds , courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 100 Odds: Matthew Semelsberger-Charles Radtke Odds
Matthew Semelsberger: +136
Charles Radtke: -162
Over 2.5 rounds: -125
Under 2.5 rounds: -105
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Why Matthew Semelsberger Will Win
Although his last three fights haven't gone his way, Matthew Semelsberger is always good for an exciting fight that could swing either way. He's extremely aggressive in taking space away between himself and his opponent, forcing them to make quick decisions often in manners of desperation. On the ground, Semelsberger is a very seasoned jiu jitsu practitioner and will often look to tie his opponents up or use his defensive wrestling to get back to his feet. He's looked a step slow over the last few fights, but we should expect a revamped version heading into this fight.
Matthew Semelsberger will have a willing dance partner to swing with during this fight, but his recent losses should give him pause in engaging a fresh prospect with knockout power like Radtke. Instead, Semelsberger should look to make use of his significant length and reach advantage in order to keep Radtke on the end of his punches. If he's able to deter Radtke from closing the distant, he should be able to implement the low calf kick and strike his way to a victory.
Why Charles Radtke Will Win
After running through opponents in his first two UFC wins, Charles Radtke got knocked out by Carlos Prates via knee to the body in a humbling experience early into his career. His striking certainly isn't the most polished, but he does come from a wrestling background and good look to mix things up in changing levels against his opponent. Radtke is also an emotional fighter and will be very motivated to get this win back on his record.
For his size, Radtke is a very lethal power puncher and will only need one shot to sit Semelsberger down. He was very active in clinching against the bigger body in Prates during his last fight, so expect him to employ some of those same techniques during this one. Radtke stands his best chance to control this fight if he's able to be dangerous off the clinch breaks and keep Semelsberger guessing every time he closes the distance.
Final Matthew Semelsberger-Charles RadtkePrediction & Pick
This should be a fun fight as both men are extremely motivated fighters coming into this one following a loss. This could be seen as a must-win situation for Semelsberger as he's dropped three in a row, but Radtke will also be motivated to bounce back following a tough loss in his last fight.
Both fighters are very aggressive and Semelsberger will enjoy a noticeable size advantage during this one. His best chance to win this fight will be in keeping Radtke at the end of his punches and mounting offense with his kicks.
However, we like what we've seen from Charles Radtke over his last few fights and he's a fighter on the rise while Semelsberger's stock seems to be on a slow decline. The power discrepancy is too great and I expect Radtke to land the more damaging shots throughout this one while implementing his wrestling along the fence. Let's roll with the betting favorite to edge out a win over three rounds in this one.
