Meek Europe is now in North Korea’s crosshairs
It is perverse in the extreme that, just as there are clear indications Russia is suffering severe manpower shortages in its Ukraine offensive, Western leaders should choose this moment to scale down their support for the Ukrainian cause .
The most damning indication that all is not well with Russia's war effort has surfaced with reports that Moscow is having to rely on North Korean forces to bolster its front-line operations.
With the latest intelligence assessments suggesting Russia has already suffered an astonishing 450,000 battlefield casualties – more than half the total number of British casualties during the entire Second World War – it is hardly surprising that Russian president Vladimir Putin should be scouring the world for reinforcements.
The Kremlin's own efforts to conscript young Russians to sacrifice their lives in Putin's so-called "special military operation" in Ukraine have failed to make up the shortfall to the extent that many of those dying in the Russian military's unrelenting "meat grinder" tactics are ex-convicts.
This week's reports that North Korea may send up to 10,000 soldiers to Russia to boost its war efforts in Ukraine is, therefore, hardly surprising given Moscow's dire need to bolster its ground forces. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky believes the arrival of the North Korean forces are part of Putin's plans to launch a massive offensive against Ukraine this autumn.
Defence ties between Pyongyang and Moscow have been deepening since the summer when Putin signed a mutual defence pact with the North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un. This has led to a marked increase in North Korea's supply of missiles and ammunition to Russia in recent months, with Ukrainian intelligence officials saying the arrival of large numbers of North Korean troops has led to the formation of their own dedicated battalion.
While the arrival of North Korean forces to fight in Ukraine highlights just how desperate Russia's recruitment drive has become, the development also presents serious challenges for Europe's future security.
Russia has already received vital support from Iran, with Tehran shipping regular supplies of drones and missiles, even if the ayatollahs have stopped short of providing ground forces.
The addition of another rogue regime in the form of North Korea to what former prime minister Rishi Sunak earlier this year branded an "axis of authoritarian states" only reinforces the view that the Ukraine conflict has far broader geopolitical implications than Putin's desire to conquer Kyiv.
With China also playing a vital role in sustaining Russia's military offensive, the emergence of this potent, anti-Western alliance should, at the very least, encourage our leaders to double down on their support for Ukraine.
Making sure that Ukraine emerges victorious against Russia is, after all, very much in the West's interests if we are to deter Putin, as well as other despotic rulers in Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang, from indulging in similar acts of global vandalism.
As Zelensky argued this week in his nightly address: "It is obvious that under such conditions our relationship with our partners needs to evolve. The front line needs more support. We are talking about more long-range capabilities for Ukraine and more sustained supplies for our forces rather than a simple list of military hardware."
Yet, far from evolving their response to the mounting threat Russia and its allies pose, Western leaders appear intent on pursuing the opposite course of action, snubbing Ukraine's appeals for assistance in favour of focusing on more parochial concerns.
The Biden administration's waning interest in the Ukraine cause meant that a summit of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group, a loose collection of 57 countries committed to supporting Ukraine, was cancelled at the last minute because Joe Biden, who was supposed to chair the summit, opted to stay at home to deal with the aftermath of Hurricane Milton. This is Biden's second no-show this year, after he missed a summit in Switzerland in the summer to attend a Hollywood fundraiser.
Zelensky's most recent meeting with Sir Keir Starmer at Downing Street, where the Ukrainian leader set out the terms of his "victory plan" for the conflict, proved similarly inconclusive, especially on the issue of the Ukrainian leader's long-standing request to use the UK's long-range missile systems to hit targets inside Russia.
Resorting to the sophistry that shows Starmer is completely unsuited to the role of global statesman, the Prime Minister justified his refusal to allow the weapons to be used on the grounds that no single weapons system can win a war.
This may be true, but enabling Ukraine to conduct long-range missile strikes against targets within Russia might well have helped to prevent the Russians from taking back control of territory in Kursk seized by the Ukrainians earlier this year. Hitting vital resupply lines would also seriously disrupt Russia's meat grinder offensive in eastern Ukraine.
But with Western leaders unwilling to give Ukraine the firepower it desperately needs to prevail on the battlefield, Russia and its authoritarian allies will conclude the West has no intention of challenging their aggressive conduct, whether in Ukraine or elsewhere.
