Good morning. As anyone who listened to Keir Starmer for more than about three seconds during the election campaign could tell you, Labour's arrival has led to a clear shift in government messaging on Channel crossings: where once we stopped the boats , now we smash the gangs. The government has put some money behind that one-liner, with a new border security command established with funding of £150m over two years, and new counter-terrorism powers for use in smuggling cases. Now Starmer is looking to build on that approach with deals that would see countries including Vietnam and Turkey, and the semi-autonomous Iraqi region of Kurdistan, paid to do more to stem the flow of would-be asylum seekers. But whether any of this will be effective is another question. Today's newsletter, with
David Suber, a doctoral research fellow on people smuggling and border policing at University College London, is about why the gangs may not be smashable – and what might work instead. Here are the headlines. Five big stories
Ukraine | Joe Biden has lifted the ban on Ukraine using long-range missiles to fire into Russian territory by permitting them to be used against Russian and North Korean forces in the Kursk region. The move, long requested by Ukraine, will be seen as a major escalation in Moscow.Water industry | Thames Water has £23bn of assets that are in urgent need of repair and the supply of water to its 16 million customers is "on a knife-edge", a Guardian investigation has revealed . One senior source said that the company was "putting the public at risk by failing to invest in the most basic needs".| Hezbollah's chief spokesman, Mohammed Afif, has been killed by an Israeli airstrike on Beirut, as Israel intensifies its air offensive in Lebanon despite ongoing indirect negotiations for a ceasefire.| At least 24 previously impossible heatwaves have struck communities across the planet , a new assessment has shown, providing stark evidence of how severely human-caused global heating is supercharging extreme weather. Scientific analyses shows that these impossible heatwaves would have had virtually zero chance of happening without the extra heat trapped by fossil fuel emissions.Social care | Excessive profiteering by unscrupulous private companies charging sky-high fees for substandard placements for vulnerable children will be clamped down on as part of a major overhaul of children's social care in England.
In depth: 'It's a catchy phrase, but it's ultimately saying the same thing' If the "smash the gangs" slogan is rhetorically familiar – transitive verb, definite , amorphous object – there are also some similarities in how it might work in practice. "It's a catchy phrase that's easy to discuss," David Suber said. "But a version of it is what a lot of European governments, from Giorgia Meloni in Italy to the Sunak government, were saying as a second line after 'stop the boats'. It's ultimately saying the same thing. And by seeing the smugglers as the reason that irregular migration happens, it ignores what's really going on." Here's what the policy has meant so far, and whether it can work – or if new deals aimed at reducing the flow of asylum seekers might be any better.
What does 'smash the gangs' mean in practice? The centrepiece of Labour's approach is the creation of a new agency, border security command (BSC), which is getting £150m of funding over the next two years. In a speech to the Interpol conference in Glasgow earlier this month, Keir Starmer said that the body would support "a new organised immigration crime intelligence unit, hundreds of new investigators and intelligence officers backed by state-of-the-art technology". Meanwhile, the government will apply counter-terrorism powers to people smugglers. That means the BSC will be able to trace suspected traffickers' movements, drawing on information from the intelligence services, and shut down their bank accounts or cut off internet access. The BSC will also be able to arrest people for making preparations to commit a crime, a power not currently available in these cases. "The counter-terrorism approach is the real difference," Suber said. "It should expand what Border Security Command is able to do. But the fundamental difficulty is that, ultimately, they will generally be working on foreign soil, because that's where the smugglers are. So good cooperation with European counterparts is the crux of the issue." Whatever powers may be available domestically to switch off phones and the internet, when the targets are overseas the UK's role will primarily be "to collect as much intelligence as possible," he added. "Ultimately, enforcement is down to the authorities in those countries."
How is it working in practice? It's obviously very early days. But officials at the Home Office quoted by the i last week sounded sceptical about the new arrangements. One said that so far, BSC is "partly a 'holding pen for people who didn't have anything to do any more because they got rid of the Rwanda policy'" and added: "Nobody quite knows how it's going to work." Last week, a joint investigation by the UK's National Crime Agency and its Dutch and Belgian counterparts led to the arrest of a 44-year-old man in Amsterdam on charges of being involved in human trafficking as part of a criminal organisation. Starmer hailed the arrest as a "significant piece of the jigsaw", but it is not part of the BSC's work, and an emphasis on a single arrest seems to suggest how distorting that focus can be. While much remains to be seen, Suber is also sceptical that reorganising the UK's resources will prove significant. "I struggle to see how it will be that different to Channel threat command, which Boris Johnson and Priti Patel launched in 2020," he said. (One of that body's key aims: "Disrupt organised crime groups.") "We haven't seen detailed plans on the staffing yet. Ultimately, it is likely to be set up as an interagency co-ordination group, bringing together Border Force, MI5, the Crown Prosecution Service, and so on."
How are people-smuggling gangs organised? In using the term gangs and introducing a new agency with counter-terrorism powers, Starmer appears to be seeking to cast trafficking as part of familiar organised crime networks. Tellingly, the announcement of the new money for the BSC earlier this month also described an additional investment to take on "international serious organised crime affecting the UK, including drugs and firearms, fraud, trafficking and exploitation". But there is little evidence for the idea that people smuggling in western Europe is linked to other forms of organised crime at a high level. Instead, smugglers tend to be loosely affiliated groups without a central command structure, which may make it difficult to disrupt through an approach modelled on drug or firearm enforcement. Members of these groups are easily replaceable if they are caught, and there is no "kingpin" to remove or crucial system to destroy. "If simply increasing law enforcement resources was the answer, smuggling would have been solved a decade ago," Suber said. "You might be able to have an operation which arrests people today, but in three or four months, others will take over. These are not complicated operations to run. They're opportunistic groups that keep on shifting according to the availability of the people to run them." Of course, if those people are migrating themselves, and get caught once they've made it to the UK, their arrest does little to impact the wider problem. "Even in France, we've seen an increase in arrests as the French have stepped up their operations on the north coast, but it hasn't substantively changed the numbers." Because the gangs are so loosely affiliated and informal, they adapt very quickly to new threats to their business model, Suber added: "We saw that with the way that lorry crossings were made unviable, and so people started coming by boat. If you surveil all the beaches in the north of France 24/7, it is likely that they will simply start from further away, and actually increase the risk for those making the journey."
What about 'Italian-style migration deals'? That was the new prong of Labour's approach confirmed by Keir Starmer yesterday : offering financial incentives to authorities in countries or regions where many of those who cross the Channel begin their journeys, in the hope that doing so might help stem the flow at source. (This is 'Italian-style' because Giorgia Meloni's government struck similar deals with Libya and Tunisia.) But the path from Vietnam or Kurdistan to the UK is much less direct than the cross-Mediterranean route from north Africa to Italy, and there is "very little evidence that these deals would reduce net migration to the UK," Suber said. While Meloni's approach has had some success recently, "Italy has had agreements with Tunisia and Libya since the 1990s – it is no new recipe." Such deals can be quickly left redundant by changing dynamics in the partner country, and have tended to "only work on a temporary basis, not long term ... they might reduce numbers [in Italy] for the first half of 2024, but if conditions change in Tunisia and Libya flows will start again."
Are there other approaches that might be more effective? There are alternatives to the whack-a-mole strategy, but they are very far from the mainstream of British political discourse. "No one country can find a solution to an international issue," Suber said. "And it is very difficult to imagine collective solutions in the current political climate." If the will was there, though, there are steps that could make a difference. It is a legal requirement for anyone claiming asylum to do so in person in the UK, but no visa exists to allow prospective asylum seekers to legally enter the UK to make their claim. "At the very least, you could test having reception centres in France, and see what happens to the numbers of people crossing by boat." That model could be extended to making it possible to apply for asylum directly from countries where there is a high likelihood that asylum claims will be accepted. As things stand, Suber added, that kind of approach appears almost utopian. Also, "Grant the visas!" and "Open the asylum application processing centres in France!" don't sound so punchy in a stump speech. But if scepticism about the gang-smashing strategy proves well-founded, where is the next three-word slogan going to come from in a few years' time? What else we've been reading Helen Pidd and Lexy Topping have been best mates since their early days at the Guardian – but life gets complicated as you get older. Their dual pieces in Saturday magazine on how kids changed things are a lovely reflection on their , and how complicated doesn't necessarily mean worse. Even though
Donald Trump isn't going to be president for another two months, his first week of transition has dominated the news cycle. David Smith takes a look at the provocative, extremist and historically under-qualified cabinet picks and what it tells us about his agenda. You'd struggle to find a more grimly symbolic emblem of
councils' financial crisis than the streetlights being dimmed all over the country. John Harris has a good piece on what happens when you ask people "to put up with paying more and more for less and less". ICYMI: Sirin Kale's Vogue interview with
Molly-Mae Hague – the only Love Island alum to spin her reality TV clout into true celebrity – is a compelling read. It offers a rare and intimate glimpse into the personal life and inner workings of "Britain's influencer-in-chief". Some of us have always said it, but are now an inescapably big deal. There's lots to enjoy in Tomé Morrissy-Swan's piece , but I especially liked this quote: "Instead of using plates, we're putting things in bread." Yep! | England went through the first half without a shot on target – but then took charge in their Nations League match against the Republic of Ireland, as Lee Carsley signed off with a 5-0 win . The match turned on Liam Scales' foul giving away a penalty and earning the defender a red card.| A rampant performance from Australia consigned Wales to a 52-20 defeat at the Principality Stadium, their eleventh loss in a row. Australia added five tries even after going a man down thanks to Samu Kerevi's red card.| Jannik Sinner added another big title to his tremendous year, beating the US Open runner-up Taylor Fritz 6-4, 6-4 for the ATP Finals trophy in front of his home fans in Turin – and before a final verdict is reached in his doping case. The front pages "Thames Water repairs crisis leaves supply 'on knife-edge'" is the
Guardian's page one lead today, highlighting an investigation into the urgent need for repair of Thames Water assets. Over at the the focus is on hundreds of toilets flushing straight into rivers, with the lead story carrying the headline: "Flush hour gush!" "Biden gives green light for strikes in Russia" - that's the , while the
Financial Times runs with: "Biden allows Ukraine to hit Russia with American long-range missiles." The goes with "Starmer wants to build new rapport with China" and the : "Move as close as possible to EU in Brexit reset, business bosses urge Starmer." "Labour war on farmers is 'threat to food security'" is the splash in the
Express. The at the is about a husband on the run, with the headline: "Manhunt." At the the focus is "Gang on royal estate", featuring an exclusive story on masked raiders at the Windsor Castle estate. Today in Focus
Assassins, spies and a superpower on the rise: the rift between Canada and India A killing in a Canadian suburb has provoked an astonishing diplomatic breakdown between India and Canada . Hannah Ellis-Petersen reports. Cartoon of the day | Edith Pritchett 's cartoons, the best Saturday magazine content and an exclusive look behind the scenes The Upside A bit of good news to remind you that the world's not all bad As he ages, Phil Daoust has been embracing movement as a source of vitality – despite the challenges of a bad knee and all the limitations that come with 61-year-old joints and muscles. Over the years, his fitness journey has evolved from hiking and yoga to running and calisthenics. Now, he's taken on a surprising new challenge: gymnastics. At Over Gravity, a London gym, Phil is learning cartwheels, handstands, and even attempting a front tuck. There are difficulties, like flips that often end in a crash, but he does not shy away from them. Supported by trainers who adapt gymnastics exercises for older bodies, Phil is learning new things about what he is capable of. "I do almost everything wrong, and I'm about as graceful as a sack of potatoes, and yet it still feels great," he writes in his latest Fit for ever column .
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