Montreal Canadiens 2024-25 season preview: Playoff chances, projected points, roster rankings
By Sean Gentille, Shayna Goldman and Dom Luszczyszyn
Montreal 's rebuild isn't quite over, but the light at the end of the tunnel is starting to appear. The team's core is starting to take shape, the prospect cupboard looks stacked and the youth looks ready to take the next step.
The model may still have the Canadiens just outside the bottom five, but it's clear things are starting to shift. The Habs are closer to the playoff bubble than they are to the league's worst teams, and closer to having a real chance than 16th in the East.
It's time for the Canadiens to start rising up the standings.
The projection
Montreal should be a better team than the one that finished bottom five last season — even if the Canadiens end up in a similar spot again this season. While the team's jump in points may seem modest, it's borne with more sustainability in mind.
The real improvement comes from the team cleaning up its goal differential after finishing last season at minus-53. Montreal is expected to take a massive jump there, one that stems from better health, expected growth and maybe even an impact prospect coming in to shore up the blue line.
The addition of Patrik Laine was supposed to help too, but what looks to be a major injury suffered during preseason puts a slight damper on Montreal's forecast.
Slight is the key word, and it really depends on how much time Laine misses — the severity of which is still unknown. We already projected him to miss roughly 18 games in the original forecast, which pegged Montreal for 81 points. That means bringing his game projection down to 41 — while also redistributing some of his minutes — won't have a massive effect. That's what leads to the 80.6-point projection above, a small decrease from our original estimate.
If Laine is out for the season, though, Montreal's projection decreases further to 79 points. That's the worst-case scenario.
With how stacked the rest of the East is, a competitive season for Montreal was always an uphill battle. Without Laine for an extended period, that battle becomes a bit more arduous.
It's possible the Canadiens have an unexpected breakout season to nullify the current misfortune. For now, it looks more likely they'll have a successful season that still leaves the team in the bottom 10.
The big question
Can Montreal's power play improve this season?
The progression of the Canadiens' power play has mirrored what we've seen from them overall: incremental gains without a significant leap in the standings, and the hope that better days await.
It's not that Montreal hasn't improved with the man advantage over the last three seasons — they produced 6.22 goals per 60 last season, up from 4.83 in 2021-22 — it's that there's still plenty of room to go. Moving from 30th to 27th, all things considered, doesn't count for much. Last season, the Canadiens were 27th in expected goals per 60, and no unit was less effective at gaining the offensive zone. Drop passes were a common sight.
There are reasons to expect more. The first, of course, is simple growth and improvement among some key young pieces. Caufield, for example, finished last season with nine power-play goals. That's not a bad number — tied for 40th in the league — nor is it particularly out of line with his expected total. It also feels a little low, given Caufield's overall shooting talent. We could say something similar for Juraj Slafkovský , whose shot helped make him the first overall pick. Increased power-play production (six goals) was part of his breakout last season, especially as he took on more of a shooter's role after Sean Monahan was traded, but his ceiling is undeniably higher than that. It's also worth noting Kirby Dach had 16 power-play points (6G, 10A) in 2022-23 and figures to be back in the mix this season, possibly adding a playmaking element to the slot.
The second: Coach Martin St. Louis said at the start of training camp he'll be in charge of the power play, taking over for departed assistant Alex Burrows. We should be careful not to assume too much based on that decision — St. Louis , after all, is the head coach, and noted on Sep. 16 the unit wasn't lacking for his input. "I helped (Burrows) with the power play the last couple of years," St. Louis said, according to the Montreal Gazette . "When he stepped down, I want to have that continuity with the power play and I wanted to take care of it. So I didn't feel like I needed to bring a coach in that department when I want to do it."
New personnel could also be of great benefit, namely Lane Hutson . He's an X-factor, a 20-year-old defenseman in his first pro season who's listed at 5-foot-9 and 158 pounds with special, rare skill when the puck is on his stick — enough to make him a candidate to contribute to the Canadiens in the near future. Corey Pronman, while calling Hutson's size and lack of physicality a "red flag," also has no doubt about his offensive ability , specifically praising his "high-end poise and sense with the puck, often walking the blue line using his great edge work to create time to make plays."
That sounds like a guy you'd want on any power play, especially one that's been among the worst in the league for three years and counting. If the Canadiens believe the NHL is the best place for Hutson's development — and there's reason to believe they will — their 5-on-4 game could benefit in short order.
Laine was also supposed to factor into that too, but there's obviously a lot of uncertainty regarding when or if he returns. He could provide a big boost if he scores anywhere close to his 2022-23 production (2.66 goals/60). No Canadiens player who took a regular power-play shift last season could muster that much.
To start the season, the Canadiens will have to try without their newest weapon. Maybe the addition of Hutson is enough. Maybe more growth from the rest can be, too. Either way, a major leap is necessary for the team as a whole to take the next step.
The wild card
How important is a healthy Dach?
In some ways, we could cut-and-paste what we said about Dach last fall. He was coming off something of a prove-it season with the Canadiens, one in which he showed improvements on both ends of the ice and generally looked like a potential long-term solution as the 2C behind Nick Suzuki despite not playing the position full-time in 2022-23.
Not bad for a reclamation project; Montreal had acquired him from Chicago for a pair of draft picks, helped him move beyond the malaise that set in during his time with the tanking Blackhawks and watched him have a productive, well-rounded season befitting a former No. 3 pick.
Dach's attempt at a follow-up, of course, ended after just two games. Now he's fully healthy and ready to try to establish himself as a core piece. Once again, despite Suzuki's growth into a legitimate No. 1 center, the Canadiens have an obvious need at 2C — both on the roster and in a system that's top-heavy with wings and defensemen. Also, things have changed a bit on Suzuki's line, where Slafkovský sems to have found a home.
That's good news for the Canadiens; they should want to live in a future where Slafkovský plays like a legit first-line left winger and Dach like a solid No. 2. Assuming his skillset didn't meaningfully change after his knee injury, he's shown signs of having the defensive mindfulness, transition skill and playmaking ability necessary to succeed in that role. Staying healthy is the next step.
The strengths
Young talent was a strength of the Canadiens heading into last season — just not in the way that was expected. The supporting talent looked like more of a potential bright spot, not the cornerstones.
What a difference a year can make.
The most pivotal players in this whole process for Montreal stepped up to be their best players. That starts with Suzuki, who picked up the pace down the middle of the top line.
It was starting to feel like make-or-break time for the Canadiens' No. 1 center, with big questions surrounding his ceiling and ability. He responded with 77 points and strong two-way impacts to support that. That brought him up to 4A in this year's Player Tiers; another season at that level (or higher) could earn him a slot in Tier 3 since there are still some insiders skeptical of his potential.
Right behind Suzuki with a plus-nine Net Rating is Caufield, another franchise cornerstone whose development is also a key part of their turnaround. He still isn't one of the biggest goal-scoring threats around the league, but he managed to net 28 last year despite shooting at just 8.9 percent. Caufield's a shot-volume machine and even improved his five-on-five pass quality. He just has to show that he can be more than a complementary winger; that's what held him back in this year's Player Tiers to 5B.
Completing that line is Slafkovský. He may not have hit the ground running at the NHL level like other first-overall picks have, but he is starting to find his footing and become an impact player. Now that he is hitting his stride, Montreal has a threatening top line. Last year the line earned 52 percent of the expected goals while outscoring teams 41-34, a great sign for the future. Each player adds a different dimension and skillset, a complementary combination that could lead the way for the Canadiens for years to come.
The top line may not be a strength relative to league average just yet, but it's getting there — and it's closer than any of the other lines Montreal is running.
On defense, the Hutson hype train is ramping up. He impressed late last season when he joined the Canadiens and is already making an impression in a couple of prospect games. There is only so much to learn from small samples like that, but he is quickly making the case to start the season at the NHL level.
That will likely be in a sheltered capacity, with Kaiden Guhle being the young gun on the top pair soaking up tough minutes. Guhle is a decent puck-mover who has shown he can be counted on to shoulder that burden. That context should be considered when looking at his on-ice numbers — he's a legitimate top four option when accounting for degree of difficulty. His work there should help ease Hutson's transition to the big leagues. The third pair also has a level of inexperience in Arber Xhekaj and Justin Barron . But both have acclimated to the NHL level over the last two seasons and put up solid enough play at five-on-five.
While there are more than likely going to be missteps along the way from this defense, the vision is starting to come together. And it helps that there is some reliable goaltending to back them up.
Sam Montembeault has proven he can manage chaos behind an up-and-coming Canadiens team with two consistently solid seasons. Cayden Primeau seems to be on the right track behind him, too. The real difference-maker for these two last year was the Jake Allen trade, ending a three-goalie system that limited all three's playing time and practice reps.
The weaknesses
One of Montreal's best strengths — their top line — is also a weakness. There's the fact each member of the line still falls short of their relative role compared to the rest of the league. But the main drawback is what a top-heavy team they are right now.
The projected second line was reclamation project central between Alex Newhook , Dach and Laine — and reclaiming their ability becomes much more difficult without their best bet, Laine, in the fold for the foreseeable future.
Newhook had a positive impact on the Canadiens' expected and actual generation last year at five-on-five — he just needs to clean things up defensively. Montreal was starting to agree with Dach when he was healthy in 2022-23, but it would be beneficial for him to add more offense.
Laine felt like the key to unlocking the second line's potential, though his availability was already a concern given he played less than 70 percent of the Blue Jackets' games in each of the last four seasons. While there were questions about Laine's ability to put all the pieces together to be a difference-maker, he had shown enough flashes in the past when healthy to feel like the X-factor of that trio. Take his play in the 2022-23 season where he added more substance by helping drive play into the offensive zone with more control while setting his teammates up more often. If he was able to blend those improvements with his best weapon, his lethal shot, the Canadiens would've had something special. A coach like St. Louis might have been the difference, too, considering his playing experience.
Now it feels unlikely the second line will find success barring a material leap from both Dach and Newhook. Not impossible, but not easy with a bottom-six talent sliding into Laine's place.
That may at least help the line defensively, especially if it's one of Rafael Harvey-Pinard or Joshua Roy sliding up — both of whom grade out well in that regard. Montreal is projected to have a collective Defensive Rating of minus-15, which stands at 26th in the league and the presence of Laine alongside someone like Newhook, who had some of the worst defensive metrics relative to his teammates at five-on-five last year, did feel like playing with fire. Still, it's an obvious downgrade in firepower that has Dach's line in a much more precarious position than the one they were already in. With Laine, the team already had the eighth-worst second line in the league. That drops to second-worst now.
Even if the Suzuki line crushes it and the second line finds a way to click without Laine, there are still gaps below them. The depth is super suspect in Montreal, with only Joshua Roy stacking up to his role.
Jake Evans and Christian Dvorak combine to a minus-19 Net Rating, dragging the Canadiens' center depth down to 29th in the league. The wingers around them aren't exactly inspiring, either.
Brendan Gallagher is what he is at this point in his career. He still has a positive impact on the Canadiens' expected goal creation relative to his teammates but has seen his scoring rate taper in recent seasons. Josh Anderson seemed to make some progress below the surface in 2022-23 but took another step back last season. He was a negative on both ends of the ice for the Canadiens at five-on-five and saw his production dip as well.
There are some similar issues on defense as well. Montreal's chances of building back to a contender rely on the young guns playing up to expectations. While Guhle, Xhekaj, Barron and Hutson have shown promising glimpses so far, progression isn't linear. And the veterans around them aren't exactly strong enough to balance out any weaknesses and blips that arise.
Savard, for example, has the worst Net Rating of this blue line at a minus-seven. He sinks the team's right defense to 27th in the league. Can Hutson balance that out? It's possible. A Hutson-Savard pairing earned about 61 percent of the expected goals share in their minutes together last year. The problem is the sample was only across two games, which isn't much to draw from at all. If that tiny sample of play is a sign of what's to come, Montreal will be in luck. But two games are next to nothing in the grand scheme of things.
The other veteran on the blue line is Mike Matheson , who has been the team's makeshift number one for a few years now. He's been better than given credit for as the team's all-situation defenseman, exactly what this young blue line has needed in recent years. By having Matheson absorb tough minutes in all situations, the coaches can maximize deployment for their young defensemen elsewhere. That helps the big picture, even if it means a weaker first pair than a contender-caliber team in the interim.
Below Savard and Matheson, there is no veteran on the third pair. Barron and Xhekaj both look like they should be able to shoulder minutes together to round out the blue line, but neither has played a full NHL season yet. And without Jordan Harris , who was traded to Columbus in the Laine deal, there aren't many other NHL-ready options to step in if either one struggles.
The best case
Laine returns quicker than expected while Suzuki, Caufield, Slafkovský and Dach prove themselves as a feared forward core in the meantime. Ditto for Guhle and Hutson on the backend. They all take a step forward — all while the rest of the team stagnates enough to net one more top five pick to get this thing really popping off.
The worst case
Montreal's young stars all take a step back after the promise they showed last season, and a number of other teams end up looking even worse. The Canadiens aren't a better team, but end up picking eighth.
The bottom line
Everything is trending in the right direction for the Canadiens, but the work is far from over. This is still a team that needs to see real growth in several areas and from several players, from the top of the lineup to the prospect pool, before they can be viewed as a true threat.
How the model works
How the model adjusts for context
Understanding projection uncertainty
Evolving Hockey
Natural Stat Trick
Hockey Reference
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder
Read the other 2024-25 season previews here.
