MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki Breaks Down How One Congressional District Could Decide Election

MSNBC national political correspondent Steve Kornacki broke down Wednesday how Nebraska's 2nd district could swing the 2024 election.

The 2nd district, which includes Omaha and its surrounding suburbs, could potentially create a 269-269 tie in the upcoming election in the event that Harris won the Great Lakes battleground states and Republican nominee Donald Trump secured the Sunbelt states and the 2nd congressional district, Kornacki said on "Chris Jansing Reports."

If Harris were to win that district along with the key battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, she would secure the necessary 270 electoral votes to become the president-elect.

"If Trump were to get those four states [Nevada, North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia] ... and it takes you to 270-268, and then that gets to this singular importance to Democrats from that Omaha district because look, we have it blue right now, but if ever, in this scenario, Donald Trump were to flip that one congressional district, which he did win in 2016 then lost in 2020, there you go. There's your 269-269 tie. What happens then? The election is thrown to the House of Representatives."

Republicans have a larger number of delegations that would vote in the House of Representatives, meaning a 269-269 tie would "heavily" favor Trump, Kornacki said. The 2nd district is expected to favor Democrats and give Vice President Kamala Harris one electoral vote, he explained.

"The rule is not every congressman gets a vote, but each state in the House would get one vote. So whether your delegation has 40+ members like California or 1 like North Dakota, one vote each. And Republicans are certainly expected to have more delegations. No matter which party controls the House, itself, Republicans would certainly be heavily favored, Trump would, in the 269-269 scenario," Kornacki said.

Harris is currently leading Trump in the 2nd congressional district 52% to 42%, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll from Sept. 28. Though Trump won 4 out of the 5 electoral votes in Nebraska, President Joe Biden won the 2nd district with 56.4% of the vote.

Nebraska and Maine are the only two states that split electoral votes based on which candidate won each district. The states allocate two electoral votes to the state popular vote winner and hand one vote to the candidate who won the popular vote in each congressional district.

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