National Hurricane Center eyes brewing system in Caribbean with tropical storm potential, 2 others

(This story was updated to add new information.)

The National Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on a large area of low pressure across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico that has the potential to develop into a tropical depression by next week.

"There is a growing signal among long-range global model ensembles that the next storm could start brewing in the western Caribbean in the coming days," University of Miami meteorologist Brian McNoldy said on his blog.

The system, called a Central American Gyre, is bringing thunderstorms and heavy rainfall to the inland portions of Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia and is expected to move northwestward over the next few days, becoming focused in El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico by late next week.

AccuWeather forecasters warn that the current warm-water conditions in the Caribbean could mean a growing likelihood of direct impacts from a tropical storm or hurricane along the U.S. Gulf coast next week.

"We want people to be prepared, not scared. Be ready and be flexible. We could be dealing with a serious hurricane threat on our doorstep by the middle of next week," said AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Jon Porter in an email. "We increased the development potential to 'high' because we are concerned that a tropical storm can form in the Caribbean or Gulf and approach the United States, and there won't be many days to track it."

The NHC is currently giving the system a 40% chance of development.

If the system, which has yet to form, becomes a named storm, it would be Tropical Storm Helene, the eighth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

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In the Atlantic, the remnants of Gordon have merged with another area of low pressure but it remains disorganized and has little chance of further development, forecasters said. A second disturbance meandering southeast of Bermuda also shows little chance of development but it's possible it could strengthen next week.

Coastal flood advisory in effect for Northeast Florida coast

A flood warning is still in effect for the St. Johns River near Astor, affecting Volusia County and Lake County, and a coastal flood advisory is in effect in inland St. Johns, inland Flagler, coastal and south-central Duval, eastern Clay and eastern Putnam counties and Trout River until 5 a.m. Sunday.

What's out there and how likely are they to strengthen?

Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gordon): Recent satellite wind data shows that an area of low pressure hasformed in association with the remnants of Gordon. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is poorly organized.

Some additional development of this system is possible during the next day or two while it moves northward or north-northeastward. After that time, conditions are expected to become less conducive for development.

Central and Western Subtropical Atlantic: Shower activity associated with an area of low pressure located about 750 miles southeast of Bermuda has changed little in organization over the past several hours.

Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive, but some development of this system is possible while it meanders over the open waters of the central or western Subtropical Atlantic though early next week.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico: A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Thereafter, gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southern Gulf of Mexico through the middle part of next week.

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When is the Atlantic hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.

The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

When is the peak of hurricane season?

The peak of the season was Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.

National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?

Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:

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What's next?

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