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NBA MVP Leaderboard: Top 10 Ranking Entering 2024-25 Season
K.Smith31 min ago
- Logan Riely/NBAE via Another NBA regular season is right around the corner, which means it's time to fire up the MVP-ranking machine. Putting together preseason versions of the most-valuable hierarchy is always a challenge. It turns out there's a reason we play the games. Who knew? Betting lines say one thing. Talking heads might say another. Writers, bloggers and podcasters will say yet another. And totally unbiased fans not at all swayed by their rooting allegiances will have their own view on the race that has yet to take shape. This list is ultimately just one person's interpretation. It is not meant to be unnecessarily divisive or flagrant ragebait. It is instead an early attempt to reconcile the concept of value with opportunity and perception. The question I jotted down to begin and guide this exercise is simple yet salient: Factoring in everything we know about NBA MVP landscapes, which 10 players seem best positioned to check all the usual and favorite statistical, functional and even anecdotal boxes? Though this exercise is tethered to individual performance, the logic about to be laid out won't waste much space on that arena. Everyone here is a known quantity—an entrenched superstar or on the verge of becoming one. Justifications are more about rationalizing how what they do for and mean to their teams will stand out relative to (unofficial) MVP-race benchmarks.
- Justin Ford/ Settling on the final option left my stomach in a knot. Potential directions abound. Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and Donovan Mitchell were all up for consideration. But barring injures, they play on teams that feel built to dilute their MVP cases. The same goes for De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. Zion Williamson would be my pick if you could guarantee he hits the 65-game threshold. You can't. And unlike Joel Embiid, he doesn't have the superstar equity built up to override those concerns James Harden could be a sneaky pick following Paul George's departure and the current Kawhi Leonard injury—as well as the inevitable future Kawhi Leonard injury. But the Los Angeles Clippers will need to win more games than the San Antonio Spurs for that scenario to play out. Even for a ranking I understand will end up dramatically changing once games tip off, I'm not prepared to predict . Stephen Curry, Anthony Davis or LeBron James can all wedge their way into the pack. But will they play enough? And will their teams be good enough? Steph probably has the better prospects, since AD and LeBron will cannibalize consideration for each other. Of note: Not one of these three finished on the top 10 of the ballot last year. Tyrese Haliburton could be a good call. It feels a little early to throw Paolo Banchero or Alperen Şengün into the fold. Trae Young deserves some back-of-the-ballot contemplation. Landing on Ja Morant is not a decision I reached with the utmost conviction. He poses the same availability concerns as a Zion at this point. But the Memphis Grizzlies have a roster capable of party-crashing the top of the West, and he remains at the heart of it. If they go from a gap year back into top-four territory, with a rookie logging heavy minutes in middle (Zach Edey), Morant will have likely played in enough games and at the level necessary to qualify for this type of consideration—if not even more.
- TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP via Plenty of Philadelphia 76ers fans will be annoyed that Joel Embiid isn't higher. They will be even less thrilled to hear I considered leaving him off entirely. The gist of my logic: Paul George's arrival coupled with the continued ascent of Tyrese Maxey will cannibalize some of the traditional production to which voters gravitate. Invariably, though, he will remain central enough to the offense—and irreplaceable enough to the defense—that this tops out as mild concern. More than anything, Embiid and the Sixers just have more important goals to prioritize. Preserving the 2022-23 MVP for the postseason takes precedence. Even if Embiid is healthy, we shouldn't assume he will meet the 65-game minimum. The Sixers may be better off if he doesn't, assuming it's by design. This argument can apply to many others. But Embiid's track record is checkered enough that it's a bigger consideration here. Does that make me a hater? A realist? Something in between? That's for you all to decide. But I bet there are scores of Sixers fans who would prefer Embiid to be intermittently bubble-wrapped through the regular season if it means entering the playoffs fresher, if not healthier, than he ever has before.
- PATRICK T. FALLON/AFP via Push-back will come in droves with Victor Wembanyama not only making the top 10 but finishing ahead of more established stars (namely Joel Embiid). It says a lot about him, though, that the biggest gripes will likely focus on whether the San Antonio Spurs can win enough games for his case to matter before they look to discredit his impact. And hey, team performance is a fair concern. League MVPs tend not to hail from mediocre teams, let alone ones who aren't projected to finish in the top six of their own conference. Still, the way we measure value has evolved. Look no further than Wemby finishing second in Defensive Player of the Year voting, as a rookie, despite the Spurs placing 21st overall in points allowed per possession. His impact metrics (and on-court performance) transcended the collective returns. Voters cared more that he improved San Antonio's defense when he played by 8.5 points per 100 possessions ( 95th percentile ), and that the team overall had a defensive rating in the 75th percentile during those minutes. Do we really believe Wemby's impact will shrink in Year 2? Progress is not always linear, and he's working off an incredibly high baseline. But generational talents have a way of exceeding even the most soaring expectations. Luka Dončić finished fourth in MVP voting as a sophomore. LeBron James finished sixth. Wembanyama has earned the right to be mentioned in the same breath—and held to the same standard—as younger iterations of all-time greats. Placing him in the top eight would feel overly ambitious if the Spurs diminished their reliance on his singular impact. They haven't. They remain in their gradual-building phase. Chris Paul should help the offense, but he won't overpower Wemby's importance. If anything, San Antonio is seeking to optimize its sophomore on offense without shifting its defensive dependence on someone who, on that end, appears to be one-of-one. Wins and losses will still end up mattering. That's why Wemby isn't higher. And yet, we can't entirely rule out that he's just so damn good our recalibrations of the Spurs' immediate ceiling have yet to catch up. Basically, generational talents have a way of doing generational things—such as featuring prominently, and deservingly, inside the meat and potatoes of the MVP debate long before their prime.
- Glenn James/NBAE via There will be those who view Anthony Edwards' proximity to the top five—and place in front of Jayson Tatum, Joel Embiid and Victor Wembanyama—as either a rush to coronate or an overarching miscalculation. The most ardent opponents will point to his so-so efficiency (he has peaked at 57.5 true shooting) and vacillating off-ball defense and playmaking, the latter of which is improving but remains more Tatum- or Kawhi Leonard-esque than floor-general caliber. Others may even see the Karl-Anthony Towns trade as proof of the Minnesota Timberwolves' acknowledgement of Edwards' central limitations. That, or they might simply believe the presence of Julius Randle will deflate his overall counting stats. The Timberwolves' state should be interpreted differently. They are not moving away or threatening to marginalize Ant. They are boldly attempting to fully optimize him. Adding Randle is addled with risk that could play out at the expense of those around him. But his on-ball creation is greater than that of Towns. That frees up Edwards to move around off the ball more or even just increase his catch-and-shoot frequency—usage adjustments that should aid his overall efficiency as well as preserve at least another layer of stamina for the defensive side. Even if the Randle acquisition doesn't pan out as intended, the addition of Donte DiVincenzo serves to augment last year's version of Edwards. Towns was no longer as much of an anomaly at the 4, particularly while attempting as many threes per game as Randle himself. DiVincenzo's volume is more unique, and even if it slips a tad, he boosts the overall long-range threat level among Minnesota's wing options, one of the team's biggest sore spots. This should all culminate in more room for Edwards to attack in the half-court—and, notably, more bankable snipers to which he can kick out. So while there may be a lower floor than before for Ant himself and Minnesota after a seismic trade, his potential pinnacle is even loftier than it was before. Whether the Timberwolves enjoy the same risk-reward profile is debatable. Regardless, they should still win enough games to keep their superstar on the periphery of the MVP debate.
- Adam Hagy/NBAE via Placing Jayson Tatum is always an exercise bound to offend someone. He's either too high, or he's too low, or he doesn't belong at all. There will even be those who dismiss the cookie-cutter "Best player on the best team" trope because, well, actually Jaylen Brown is better. That last rebuke is extreme—and inaccurate. Brown is a fantastic player, a totally warranted reigning Finals MVP. The Boston Celtics are not the Boston Celtics, or anything close to it, without Tatum. A marked groundswell in "Damn, think of how screwed this team would be without Superstar X" framing keeps working against the 19- 26-year-old. Tatum is considered less valuable because the Celtics can navigate minutes and extended stretches without him. This same thought process has previously been used to poke holes in Giannis Antetokounmpo's case. His numbers were—and are—just so gaga it doesn't have the same adverse impact. It is bizarre to paint Tatum's 26.9 points and 4.9 assists per game on 60.4 true shooting in this context. But fans and analysts gravitate towards the perpetual triple-double watchers or the offensive engines delivering nightly 30-point, 10-assist dalliances. Tatum is not that guy. But he is one of the most valuable two-way forces in the game—and, yes, the best player on what may again be, by far and away, the best team. Failing any material changes to his play style or stat line, though, he seems fated to hover around the fringes of the MVP discourse. His most realistic path to changing that is likely ratcheting up the playmaking not just to where it was during the postseason (6.3 assists) but where it landed over Boston's final seven playoff games ( 7.4 assists ).
- Stacy Revere/ Giannis Antetokounmpo has officially returned from his voter-fatigue exile. He and the Milwaukee Bucks are no longer too familiar. They're closer to being written out of the glitziest discussions. Some are painting 2024-25 as Milwaukee's last stand with this core. Others will argue the window has already closed. This is a complex discussion that warrants more time and space than we have here, but it does make Gianni's' path to a third MVP award clearer than ever: continue delivering the numbers and effort he always does at both ends of the floor—last year's improved shot profile included—while positioning the Bucks as, inarguably, one of the foremost threats to come out of the East. If Milwaukee is healthy, this path amounts to sustaining the status quo. For all the hand-wringing over whether the Bucks are fading behind the New York Knicks and Philadelphia 76ers and Cleveland Cavaliers, they outscored opponents last season by 16.3 points per 100 possessions when Giannis, Damian Lillard, Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez all shared the floor. Gary Trent Jr.'s addition forges what should be one of the Association's most dangerous lineups, period. Remaining healthy at the top is Milwaukee's ticket to winning enough games to keep Antetokounmpo's case front-and-center. And yet, enough time and distance is between Giannis and his second MVP for him to sniff the top of the field under less-than-ideal circumstances. If the Bucks do cede ground to up-and-comers as well as preexisting peers but dominate the minutes in which he's on the floor, the legend of his indispensability grows even further. This isn't a quite a win-win scenario. The MVP discourse is never that cut and dry. But it would be more surprising if Giannis underperforms this top-five placement than if he outstrips it. And frankly, he'd be higher if not for the potential Damian Lillard has a better second season in Milwaukee and absorbs more of the credit for where the team lands than co-stars elsewhere, a la Kyrie Irving in Dallas or Jamal Murray in Denver.
- Dustin Satloff/ Jalen Brunson is facing what feels like a boom-or-bust MVP candidacy. The New York Knicks have reoriented their entire roster around the idea that he's an indisputable top-10 talent—that last year's fifth-place MVP finish is closer to his normal, and that it doesn't even represent his peak, because imagine what he can do within a truer five-out environment. Well, we won't have to imagine anything much longer. New York has basically engineered five-out spacing as its default, at least within core lineups. In doing so, it has not diluted dependence on the reason title contention is within reach. On the contrary, Brunson is as important as ever. Say what you will about the complicated, if overstated, value of Julius Randle. He is more of an established on-ball creator than Mikal Bridges or Karl-Anthony Towns. There is, as such, an inherent fragility to what the Knicks have built. They are essentially eschewing the belief that you need two A-level stars. One plus a bunch of secondaries is enough. The bet is arguable in a playoffs context. But the 2025-26 regular season is about to feature Jalen Brunson with a blend of usage and spacing and pick-and-roll optionality he's never enjoyed. That is a terrifying proposition for opposing defenses, who have already struggled, and outright failed, to cap Brunson's impact in more confined settings. Something like 30-plus points and eight-plus assists per game for Brunson to go along with one of the league's highest offensive-rating swings feels within reach, if not likely. Paired with the high amount of regular-season wins we can pretty much guarantee head coach Tom Thibodeau will insist his team collect, the Knicks have managed to take a top-five MVP case and, potentially, strengthen it.
- Glenn James/NBAE via Putting Shai Gigleous-Alexander higher is a real temptation. While I have yet to offer my official pick, he is on the shortest list to win the whole darn thing. But previously reached heights may start to work against him. Earning consecutive First Team All-NBA nods and top-five MVP finishes, including the runner-up position last year, is a major deal. And the Oklahoma City Thunder will no doubt be good enough to keep SGA top-of-mind all season. To what end that matters is officially debatable. SGA and Oklahoma City have officially forfeited the element of surprise. That tends to happen after you finish with the best record in the Western Conference and enter the season with perhaps the deepest and most complete roster in the league. This is a compliment, to be sure. But it undermines anecdotal consideration. Will SGA be deemed less valuable if more expanded usage for Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren lead to his own statistical downticks? Will he be penalized for having so much capable, if star-powered, depth around him, a la Jayson Tatum's entire existence? What if the Thunder aren't winning as many games as last year, preferring instead to prioritize health and experimental optimization for the postseason? That (somewhat unfair) downside can still yank SGA only so far down the MVP pyramid. This is an inarguable top-10 player, with access to top-five billing, acting as the base and tip of a spear for a team that, despite everything just outlayed, may win so many mother effing games that the caveats do not matter.
- Elsa/ Luka Dončić enters as the odds-on MVP favorite at FanDuel , and while my own rankings differ from aggregate betting lines in many cases, this is not one of them. Multiple forces are coalescing into hallmark momentum for the 25-year-old. His numbers will never be an issue. He's going to average 30-plus points and eight-plus assists per game and just generally make opposing defenses swoon. Coming off a Finals appearance has also upended meaningful chunks of skepticism. It lends credit to his heliocentric approach, his ability to coexist with another star (Kyrie Irving), and his capacity to work within a top-tier defense, even if he's not a primary factor driving that success. Cake in the Dallas Mavericks' ascent into bonafide contender territory, and Dončić will benefit from a variety of slants, including the "Best player on a title threat" and "It's his turn, frankly" angles. Resting on those arguments still sells Luka's MVP stock short. This is someone whose play style has been portrayed as grating and intractable. Dispelling those notions is just as big of a deal. Yes, Doncic will dominate the ball. He's Luka Doncic. It would be foolish to reinvent his usage. But he showed last season that he can play faster. Dallas got out in transition waaaay more last season and did so even more often with Luka on the court for just the second time of his career. We already had enough evidence of his dominance and importance to the Mavs. Now, though, Dončić's indispensability is even more standout—a transcendence that no longer solely exists on his own terms but, inarguably, persists inside variable and larger team constructs. Hardwood Knocks Grant Hughes
Read the full article:https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10137845-nba-mvp-leaderboard-top-10-ranking-entering-2024-25-season
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