Nebraska campaigns make final push to voters before significant 2024 election

LINCOLN — First-time voter Israel Eggerson arrived at the Douglas County Election Commission office as the sun was starting to rise Saturday. He was fourth in line.

"For my generation, it's not really common for people to be in politics, or just for my race in general," said Eggerson, who is Black. "I grew up from the north side of Omaha, where a lot of the gang violence and stuff is ... This year, I felt like something was just screaming at me that I needed to get out and vote."

Just before noon, the line outside the office was several hundred people long, winding in loops that stretched into a residential neighborhood.

The mass of people queuing to vote at the election commission were diverse in age and race. A young White couple pushed a baby in a stroller. A white-bearded Black man carried a folding chair. As a muscular White man in a U.S. Marines T-shirt walked to his car after voting, he went past a group of young White women who met in line chatted Omaha-style as they neared the door.

Across the board, voters expressed a similar belief that this election held particular significance.

"The mood out here has been great," said nonprofit worker Laurie Ackerman while waiting in line. "It's about everybody exercising their right to vote, and accepting the outcome."

While Nebraska is by no means a swing state, several factors have made it a "flashpoint" this election year, according to David Wasserman, senior editor at the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. It's a surprising shift that could foreshadow Nebraska's continued significance in future elections, depending on the outcome of this one, he said.

Skip the scroll: Harris vs. Trump | Senate races | Bacon vs. Vargas | Ballot issues | Nebraska Legislature

The Harris-Trump race motivates Nebraskans

Election interest in Nebraska starts at the top of the ticket, where Nebraska's unique system of awarding three of its five electoral votes by congressional district has made the Omaha-based 2nd District a true presidential battleground.

The district has awarded electoral votes to Democratic presidential candidates twice since Nebraska adopted the system in 1992. Former President Barack Obama won the district in 2008, and President Joe Biden won it in 2020. Polling suggests it's again well within Democrats' reach.

A New York Times/Siena College poll released on Monday showed Vice President Kamala Harris with a commanding 12-point lead over former President Donald Trump in the district, 54% to 42%. Trump had a significant lead in the rest of the state.

Interest in the race is evident across Omaha, where there's a proliferation of blue dot yard signs and competing signs from Republicans — some showing the state's outline all in red and others depicting a red dot with a Trump-like tuft of hair.

"I'm always a motivated voter, but I think this year matters more than any (election) in my life," said Omaha's Emily Moody during a "Blue Dot" rally this fall.

Eggerson, the first time voter, decided to vote for Trump, mainly because of the economy and immigration, but also because he couldn't really determine what Harris stands for.

"It's kind of hard to get something off of her," Eggerson said. "One minute she's saying she's going to do something, and the next minute she's not."

Love Carter, who voted with her mother Margaret Carter, both voted for Harris and Initiative 439, which seeks to expand abortion access. It was not only the presidency, but women's rights, that motivated them to make sure they cast their votes, Love Carter said.

"That was my number one thing," she said. "I should be allowed to do what I want to do with my body, and shouldn't no government or man tell me what I can and cannot do. I am my own person. I should make my own decision. That is why I came out today."

Michael Karnash, a retired IT worker, said he almost got discouraged from voting this year because of all the name-calling and overly broad categorizations of opponents by both sides.

But he decided to vote because it's a right that he holds near and dear. He voted for Harris, he said, even though "it was really hard to get substance from her." It came down to kind of a "lesser of two evils" choice, Karnash said.

"She talks common sense," he said. "She doesn't have a criminal record, let's start with that. And she doesn't lie as much."

Harris and Democrats have outspent Trump and his supporters on advertising the district by more than 20-to-1, according to published figures from the ad-tracking firm AdImpact. In all, Nebraska ranks high among all states in presidential election ad spending.

The Harris campaign has been running a robust ground game in Omaha for months, with 25 paid staff and 800 volunteers working as part of a coordinated Democratic campaign. The campaign says it has hit 6,500 doors in the past month and made 14,000 calls the past week.

The Trump campaign has four paid staff members in Nebraska as part of what nationally is being called "Trump Force 47" — an organization with dual goals of getting the vote out and "election integrity."

Eric Underwood, chairman of the Nebraska Republican Party, said two of the Trump staff members are dedicated to reaching Trump supporters and two are recruiting and training poll watchers. They have been joined by a number of state party staffers and some 300 volunteers, he said.

U.S. Senate race between Deb Fischer and Dan Osborn draws attention, millions

For Wasserman, Nebraska's recent relevance is less focused on the 2nd District, and has been overshadowed by the surprisingly close Senate race between Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Deb Fischer and independent challenger Dan Osborn.

For more than a decade, Republicans have held Nebraska's two U.S. Senate seats. Independent candidate Dan Osborn believes he can break the grip. U.S. Sen. Deb Fischer said she isn't fazed.

Fischer and Osborn are neck-and-neck in most polls, with just a two-point difference separating them according to the New York Times/Siena College poll. A late October poll of 1,220 Nebraska voters conducted by The Economist/YouGov showed that Fischer leading over Osborn by a larger margin, 50% to 43%. Cook Political Report has dubbed it "the most surprising race" of the 2024 cycle.

"It's really tough to pull a sneak attack in a Senate race," Wasserman said.

Fischer, who lived and worked on a family ranch in the Valentine area, is seeking to become the Nebraska's first U.S. senator elected to a third term since Democrat Jim Exon won his race in 1990.

Osborn, a former labor union and mechanic at Kellogg Co. in Omaha, is seeking to become the state's first independent elected to the Senate since George Norris left the Republican Party and won a term as an independent in 1936.

Outside spending has poured into the race. As of Oct. 19, Osborn's candidacy had drawn $19 million in outside advertising both supporting and opposing his campaign, according to campaign watchdog OpenSecrets. Fischer's candidacy, by contrast, had attracted $8 million in outside spending, including $7 million opposing her candidacy.

Wasserman said he's witnessed similar stories of Republican incumbents facing tough reelection challenges from independent candidates in states like Utah and Kansas. In both cases, the incumbent still prevailed by a "comfortable" albeit "underwhelming" margin, Wasserman said.

U.S. Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas joined Fischer at a campaign event in Bellevue Saturday, where supporters rallied behind Fischer, Trump and other conservative candidates.

Osborn supporters briefly came in at the start of the rally but were removed quickly and did not interrupt the speakers.

When asked if they had voted yet, most people in the crowd raised their hands.

Signs for Fischer and Trump flanked the stage as Cotton and other speakers praised Fischer as a candidate they said would help to lower inflation, protect gun rights and secure the southern border.

"Deb Fischer is tough as nails," Cotton said. "She's tough for Nebraska. She is tough on crime, she's tough on the border, she's tough on our enemies from China to Iran and all around the world and she is tough on the liberal, politicians and bureaucrats who want to trample on our constitution."

Nebraska's other 2024 U.S. Senate race — there are two on the ballot this year — has drawn far less notice.

In a special election, incumbent U.S. Sen. Pete Ricketts is favored over civil rights activist and 2020 Senate write-in candidate Preston Love Jr.

Sen. Pete Ricketts, the former Nebraska governor appointed to fill the Senate seat vacated by Ben Sasse in 2022, is running in a special election to finish the last two years of Sasse's term. If elected, Ricketts has said he will seek a full six-year term in 2026.

Ricketts is challenged by Preston Love Jr., an Omaha Democratic activist and professor. Love has acknowledged his campaign to defeat the wealthy Republican is a "long shot," though he hopes his status as a community leader will drive more people in North Omaha to the polls.

The New York Times/Siena College poll found Ricketts ahead of Love by double digits, although Love led Ricketts in the Omaha area.

As of Oct. 16, Ricketts had raised more than $5.3 million and spent more than $4.1 million, while Love raised just over $236,000 and spent $195,000, according to OpenSecrets.

A toss up in the 2nd Congressional District

The tossup battle for the 2nd District congressional seat pitting four-term incumbent Republican Rep. Don Bacon and Democratic challenger State Sen. Tony Vargas has also drawn interest and money.

Presidential election-year politics has also helped translate into volunteer support for Vargas. The Omaha state legislator said his campaign has reached 20 times more doors this year than it had in 2022, when Vargas lost to Bacon by fewer than 6,000 votes.

Recent polling supports that Vargas may have a slight edge over Bacon. The Economist/YouGov poll, which surveyed 389 2nd District voters, showed Vargas leading Bacon 50% to 46%. Cook Political Report has also shifted its classification of the race from a tossup to leaning Democrat.

Vargas, a former school board member and teacher who is seeking to become Nebraska's first Latino member in Congress, has stressed his working-class background and work in the Legislature to help middle class families.

"I'll never forget where our families, where my family, came from," he said recently.

He has also painted Bacon as an extreme "MAGA-enabler," frequently pointing out Bacon's sponsorship of a "life-at-conception" bill that would have thrown any abortion into legal question.

While Bacon acknowledges the strong political headwinds at the top of the ticket, he said he's used to winning close races in one of the nation's few true swing districts. That included in 2020, when Trump lost the district to Biden by more than 6 percentage points while Bacon beat his Democratic challenger by 5 points.

The retired Air Force brigadier general is emphasizing his national security experience at a time of world conflict and noting that politically independent organizations have rated him one of the most effective and bipartisan members in all of Congress.

"So when you hear about (me) being an extremist, the outside folks who look at this don't think so," said Bacon, who called such claims "Tony baloney."

While Democrats have put much focus on abortion, Bacon said he and Republicans win on the issues that polls suggest are most important to voters this year, including the economy, immigration and crime.

Outside groups are having a huge say in the outcome. They have already committed more than $20 million to the race, dwarfing what the candidates have spent. That includes $12 million backing Bacon and more than $8 million for Vargas — most of the money spent on ads thrashing the opposition.

A bevy of divisive abortion measures: abortion, marijuana, sick leave and scholarships

In addition to contentious federal races, Nebraska also has a bevy of divisive ballot measures. In all, there are six initiatives that seek to expand abortion access, solidify the current 12-week abortion ban, legalize medical marijuana, mandate paid sick leave for Nebraska employers, and partially repeal a new law that gives $10 million per year to support private school scholarships.

Abortion rights have been a top issue on the ballot across the country since 2022, when the U.S. Supreme Court overturned landmark abortion ruling Roe v. Wade. Among the 10 states with the issue on the ballot this year, Nebraska is the only one to feature two competing measures.

Initiative 434, known as the Protect Women and Children campaign, would amend the Nebraska Constitution to ban most abortions after the first trimester but also leave room for lawmakers to increase restrictions in the future. Initiative 439, known as the Protect Our Rights campaign, would amend the state's constitution to establish the right to an abortion up until "fetal viability," which is generally considered to be 23 to 24 weeks of pregnancy.

Several Douglas County voters on Saturday mentioned the abortion initiatives as a key motivator behind their desire to vote this year. Jani Steiger-Nebitt, a respiratory therapist, had already voted early herself, but she joined the line at 7:30 a.m. anyway to pick up a ballot for a woman who just got out of the hospital and will be unable to make it to the polls. Nebraska law allows voters to authorize other people to do that.

Steiger-Nebitt voted for Harris and voted no on Initiative 434 and yes for Initiative 439 "because women should have control over their own bodies," she said. She said she always votes, but felt particular motivation this year to get involved, and volunteered for the Democratic Party.

"I believe this election is a turning point," Steiger-Nebitt said. "We're either going to have a democracy or not."

In recent weeks, both campaigns have released multiple video advertisements, many of which make similar claims against their opponents, alleging they are lying to voters and seek to harm women. They have also posted letters signed by hundreds of local health care professionals advocating for the benefits of their initiative.

As of Saturday afternoon, Initiative 434 released eight video ads featuring doctors, an adoption attorney and several female Huskers arguing in support of maintaining Nebraska's current abortion restrictions.

"Nebraska, it's time to get off the bench," Husker softball phenom Jordy Bahl says in an ad. She said on social media site X that the athletes weren't paid for their participation. "We just aren't afraid to take a stand and protect life!"

Meanwhile, Initiative 439 has released 11 ads featuring doctors and testimonials from women who have faced pregnancy complications, who largely speak about the harms of the state's abortion ban and advocate in support of expanding access.

In response to the bevy of ads, Gov. Jim Pillen hosted a press conference to correct what he considered misinformation about Nebraska's current abortion ban, including claims that state law doesn't allow treatment for miscarriages and ectopic pregnancies. Nebraska's chief medical officer, Timothy Tesmer, who was present at the event, later issued a health alert out of concern for "incorrect and misleading information" about the Preborn Child Protection Act.

Members of Protect Our Rights described the event as "propaganda," "misleading" and "insulting." None of their ads have claimed ectopic pregnancies can't be treated under the current law, although some ads say the 12-week ban threatens women's lives because doctors can't treat them even if their pregnancy won't survive.

Ads have also been prevalent for Initiative 435, which seeks to repeal the first section of Legislative Bill 1402, removing the program and funding mechanism that would allocate $10 million per year for scholarships to attend private and parochial K-12 schools.

The campaign behind the initiative, Support Our Schools Nebraska, released an ad in the closing days of the election showing a group of suit-clad men entering a classroom to steal and destroy elementary school supplies in front of children. The intent was to argue that LB 1402 would reduce the amount of state dollars available to go to public education, leading to budget cuts.

The ad drew offense from state senators who support LB 1402, prompting a press conference this week hosted by Sen. Lou Ann Linehan of the Omaha area, who introduced the bill. Linehan called the ad "ridiculous" and "insulting," and used a bucket of Legos to illustrate her counterargument that the Legislature has already invested billions of dollars in public schools.

Also this week, Opportunity Scholarships of Nebraska celebrated nearly 4,000 scholarships that were awarded to local students as a result of LB 1402, which took effect in July. The next day, a group of nine former state senators, all Republicans, published a letter in the World-Herald urging voters to support repealing the law, arguing that similar programs have "decimated budgets" in other states.

Republican legislative super majority on the line, $7 million spent

Legislative races are heating up as Republicans fight to keep their supermajority in the Legislature and Democrats try to cut into their numbers. Republicans currently hold 33 of the Legislature's 49 seats, enough to potentially end filibusters and push though contentious measures, such as switching back to a winner-take-all system for awarding electoral votes.

The partisan efforts focused on seven urban districts — in the Omaha metro area, Lincoln and Grand Island — where both candidates have a chance of winning. The intensity of the races showed up as record campaign spending. Virtually all of the GOP candidates got funding from Ricketts or Lincoln business owners Tom and Shawn Peed or both, typically five-figure donations.

Across all legislative races, campaign spending reached the $7 million mark as of Oct. 21. More than $2 million was spent during the first three weeks of October. Spending in three key races topped $500,000 with two weeks left before Election Day. Two others had passed the $400,000 mark.

Two of the top-spending races involved Lincoln Sens. Beau Ballard and Carolyn Bosn, who were appointed to their seats and have not previously been through an election. In the third, Sen. Ray Aguilar of Grand Island has been fighting to win reelection against the man he defeated four years ago. The three GOP lawmakers all have tough Democratic opponents.

Another high-spending race pitted Sen. Robert Dover of Norfolk, another appointee, against a fellow Republican in a high-spending race, while a campaign between a Democrat and a nonpartisan candidate in northeast Omaha crossed the $300,000 mark.

Wasserman said Nebraska's relevance in future elections will largely depend on the outcome of legislative races, particularly if Republicans have enough of a majority to shift the state back to a winner-take-all system in determining electoral votes.

Supporters of winner-take-all pressed lawmakers to make the change this year due to concerns that the 2nd District's separate vote might cost Trump the election. Several Republicans maintained their opposition to the idea, including Sen. Mike McDonnell of Omaha, which prevented a last-minute switch.

McDonnell is term-limited and will not be returning to the Legislature for the 2025 session, but several holdouts still remain. Republicans could need more than their current supermajority to pass such a measure. If Nebraska does adopt winner-take-all, Wasserman said, it would lessen the state's significance in future elections.

World-Herald staff writers Henry Cordes, Luna Stephens, Molly Ashford, Dan Crisler and Martha Stoddard contributed to this report.

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Christopher Burbach