New Mexico readies for Trump, with some state officials bracing for impact

Nov. 17—SANTA FE — When Donald Trump takes office again in January, his agenda could be met with a healthy dose of resistance in New Mexico.

That's because Democrats still hold all statewide elected offices and some are readying to push back against the president-elect.

But Trump's administration could have the final say on proposed land swaps, oil drilling on federal lands, natural disaster relief and other key policy issues affecting New Mexico.

House Speaker Javier Martínez, D-Albuquerque, said Democrats will be quick to act on behalf of women seeking reproductive health care, immigrants and other groups if the Trump administration rolls back existing protections.

"We will step up, and we will protect our people," Martínez told the Journal.

But he also said the GOP president-elect would be wise to follow New Mexico's lead by expanding a federal child care tax credit and making higher education more affordable.

"If the Trump administration wants to come to New Mexico and learn from what we've done, they are welcome to come," Martínez said.

Meanwhile, State Land Commissioner Stephanie Garcia Richard said she's concerned the Trump administration could scuttle plans for a land exchange in southern New Mexico.

The proposed land swap, which has already been initiated, involves the state receiving about 76,000 acres of federal land on the west side of Las Cruces and around the Santa Teresa port of entry.

In exchange, the state would transfer to the federal Bureau of Land Management roughly 84,000 acres now included within the Organ Mountains-Desert Peaks National Monument near Las Cruces. That would prevent the land in question from being developed or leased by a future land commissioner.

"We're really urging this new administration not to stand in the way," Garcia Richard told the Journal. "It would be a shame to see it stymied."

The land the state would acquire via the swap could be leased for manufacturing, solar energy and other types of economic development, according to the State Land Office.

Trump defeated Vice President Kamala Harris in this month's general election, while Republicans won control of the U.S. Senate and retained a slim majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.

That "trifecta" could give the Trump administration the green light to enact its agenda on a federal level, with states having only a limited ability to defy federal mandates.

While some elected officials have taken a wait-and-see approach to Trump's second term, Garcia Richard said New Mexico should expect the once-and-future president to try to carry out his campaign pledges.

"I don't think it's speculative, because we've been through this before," she said, referring to Trump's first term as president from 2017 through 2020.

How the economy may be impactedTrump held a campaign rally in Albuquerque the week before Election Day, during which he claimed a Democratic victory would eliminate more than 90,000 oil and natural gas industry jobs in New Mexico.

"If Kamala is elected, New Mexico's economy will be reduced to rubble," Trump said.

While New Mexico oil production increased by about 120% over the four years Trump was previously president, it increased by nearly 80% over Democratic President Joe Biden's first three years in office — eclipsing 683 million barrels of oil last year — and is on track to grow even more this year, according to legislative data.

As a result, state revenue has surged to record-high levels over the last several years and is projected to surpass $13 billion for the current budget year — more than double the amount from eight years ago.

Senate Minority Whip Pat Woods, R-Broadview, said Trump's administration could bolster oil and natural gas production to even higher levels, in part by relaxing regulations in order to build new pipelines.

"In my view, the economy under Trump has the opportunity to blossom with a little less regulation," Woods said.

But he said he expects such regulations will not be adopted overnight, adding that solar and wind energy will likely remain a part of the state's energy mix.

"I think that process will keep going," Woods told the Journal. "I think there will still be a demand for renewable energy."

Woods also said he does not expect to see a loss of federal funds for New Mexico's military bases and national laboratories, though the conservative policy playbook Project 2025 calls for the labs to refocus on national security issues — not on climate change and renewable technologies.

U.S. Sen. Martin Heinrich, D-N.M., disputed Woods' assertion, saying funding for the "very programs that have positioned New Mexico as a leader in defense, science and innovation" could be at risk.

Federal funding made up about 35.7% of New Mexico's total revenue in 2022, according to data from the Pew Charitable Trusts.

Lawmakers look to codify protections

State lawmakers have already taken some steps to enshrine federal laws in state statute, effectively shielding the state from any federal policy changes.

In 2019, for instance, the Democratic-controlled Legislature approved measures codifying parts of the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare, in state law.

The law, which was signed by Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham, specifically bars health insurers from denying coverage based on pre-existing conditions.

Lujan Grisham signaled Friday her administration will work with lawmakers to pass similar protections during the upcoming 60-day legislative session.

Democrats maintained a comfortable majority in both legislative chambers in this month's general election, though Republicans picked up one seat in both the House and Senate, based on unofficial results.

"I do believe we will have a number of legislative proposals that will codify the protections we have," the two-term Democratic governor said in an interview.

That could include the creation of a state health care affordability fund, in case the federal government seeks to trim funding levels for Medicaid or other programs, she said.

She also said it is a "real possibility" that Trump could withhold federal disaster relief funds from states like New Mexico that have opposed his agenda.

"We've experienced a Trump administration before and he can be punitive and reactive," the governor told the Journal. "I also know when he says something extreme, it could happen."

But Lujan Grisham said she does not believe the state needs to strengthen its abortion laws, after lawmakers in 2021 repealed a long-dormant state abortion ban.

In addition, Lujan Grisham stopped short of describing her efforts as an attempt to "Trump-proof" the state, a phrase that has been used to describe the actions of other Democratic governors, including California Gov. Gavin Newson.

"When you use terminology like that, it sounds like you're politicizing," the governor said. "It's part of the job I'm elected to do irrespective of who the president is."

She also said she has been approached by fellow Democratic Govs. JB Pritzker of Illinois and Jared Polis of Colorado about joining their nascent group called Governors Safeguarding Democracy.

However, Lujan Grisham said she has not yet decided whether to join the group, or other similar organizations that are in the works after Trump's election victory.

Courts could end up as key battlegrounds

The ability of states like New Mexico to enact policies that go further — or possibly clash — with federal mandates could end up being decided by the courts.

That could put some Democratic officials in the position of advocating for states' rights, a position often trumpeted by Republicans.

Attorney General Raúl Torrez indicated he won't hesitate to take action if he believes New Mexicans' constitutional rights are being violated.

"Despite our political differences, all Americans believe in building a safer, stronger, more prosperous nation and we expect our president to work toward those goals while upholding our shared faith in the rule of law and our commitment to basic human decency," Torrez said.

"New Mexicans should know that any assault on those principles will be met with fierce resistance by my office, and I will not hesitate to stand and fight for the freedom and dignity to which we are all entitled," he added.

With battles looking likely on the horizon, the question appears to be when — not if — the first challenges are filed.