New York’s US House Races That May Decide Control of the Chamber

NEW YORK—As Nov. 5 draws near, a handful of hard-fought congressional races in New York state districts that could ultimately decide the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives have drawn national attention.

While New York state has long had a reputation as solidly "blue"—no Republican presidential candidate has carried it since Ronald Reagan in 1984—candidates from both major parties are not taking votes for granted.

Even though a much-anticipated "red wave" did not fully materialize in 2022, the midterms saw several Republicans winning seats in districts carried by the Democratic Party's presidential candidate Joe Biden two years earlier, helping the GOP gain control of the House.

Whether in upstate or on Long Island, organizers, activists, and ordinary voters who spoke to The Epoch Times cited immigration as a critical issue, often the most important one, in these elections.

Since the spring of 2022, more than 200,000 illegal immigrants—many from south of the U.S.–Mexico border—have entered New York City alone.

In addition to the border issue, voters have serious concerns about crime, opioid addiction and treatment, gas and food costs, and income and property taxes.

"The parties are only a few seats apart in the current Congress, and it's very likely that the next House will be closely divided," Stanley Feldman, a professor in the political science department at Stony Brook University on Long Island, told The Epoch Times.

In Feldman's view, the House races are drawing so much notice for two primary reasons, and the fact that certain districts are in play is by no means uniquely favorable to Republicans. In some of those districts, Republicans are the incumbents.

"It's unfair and it's unfortunate that both Albany and Washington have often neglected Long Island. For every dollar a New Yorker sends to Washington, we get a mere 85 cents back. It's worse on the state level. Long Island has been a piggy bank, an ATM of sorts, for Albany and the five boroughs," he said, before promising to invest federal funds and resources back into Long Island to make it safer.

Sandra Benedetto, chair of the Southold Town Democrats on Long Island's Eastern Shore, affirmed Avlon's view of the district's political makeup.

The margins in Suffolk County, which largely overlaps with District 1, are quite narrow, she said. In 2020, then-President Donald Trump won Suffolk County by a mere 232 votes, Benedetto noted. The district includes 185,000 registered Democrats, 188,00 registered Republicans, and 169,000 "blanks," meaning eligible voters with no official party affiliation, she told The Epoch Times.

Democrats on Eastern Long Island spent a good part of the summer encouraging likely Democrat voters to register. Benedetto said 1,771 Democrats joined the county's registered voter rolls over the past month, compared with 1,011 Republicans.

Support for LaLota in the district still runs high, and the illegal immigrant situation is not helping his opponent, in the view of Jim Schmidt, a registered nurse who lives in Northport.

"LaLota seems to be my kind of guy, a law-and-order guy who served in the military, a family man with conservative values," Schmidt told The Epoch Times.

Schmidt said he has little doubt that the construction of Section 8 housing near where he lives, and elsewhere on Long Island, has one primary purpose: to house the illegal immigrants who have flooded into the state in the past two and a half years. The mass influx has had direct and immediate consequences in terms of street crime, he said.

In February, Suozzi defeated Republican challenger Mazi Pilip in a special election called in the aftermath of the expulsion of Rep. George Santos from Congress amid a corruption scandal.

"Tom Suozzi has been in office for the better part of 30 years. During that time, our quality of life has gone down and our cost of living has gone up," LiPetri said.

LiPetri said that Suozzi had voted against the bipartisan End the Border Catastrophe Act as well as the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAFE) Act, which would require proof of citizenship to register to vote.

Suozzi emphasized his strong public support from police organizations in Nassau County, noting that he has collaborated across the aisle with Republicans on border issues and led efforts to enhance storm preparedness on Long Island. He also said that he has advocated for lower taxes for residents and supported the ongoing development of downtown hubs to attract younger residents.

As in nearby districts, people who live within this large swath of Nassau County have serious concerns about illegal immigration.

D'Esposito, a former New York City police detective, has taken a similar approach to that of LaLota in District 1 and LiPetri in District 3, emphasizing his toughness on the border issue and trying to characterize his opponent as an appeaser who, for example, favors giving amnesty to millions of people in the country illegally.

Gillen has presented herself to voters as a progressive alternative who wants to fix the border while taking a firm stance against some of the more extreme rhetoric she accuses her opponents of using.

Gillen also included "Haitian Americans" among the campaign priorities listed on her website, right alongside such categories as "Labor," "Israel," and "Gun Safety."

"In Congress, I will defend the Haitian community in the face of racist, conspiratorial attacks from extremists—the Haitian American community deserves to be respected and celebrated, not ostracized and slandered," she states on her website.

Immigration was once again an issue of key concern when the two candidates met on a debate stage on the night of Oct. 10. Molinaro sought to associate Riley with arguments and positions that have granted the federal government discretion over the enforcement of border policies and immigration laws, while Riley argued that both major parties are responsible for the current border situation and vowed decisive action to address it, including deploying more agents to the region. Both candidates also took steps to express their support for Israel and to denounce Hamas and anti-Semitism.

Despite the attention that immigration received during the debate, focusing heavily on it might not be the most effective strategy from a political standpoint, according to Karen Beebe, chair of the Democratic organization in Broome County, one of the largest counties in the district.

"I can tell you that the migrant crisis, or manufactured migrant crisis or narrative that Republicans are telling, doesn't really strike a chord with people, and with Democrats especially," Beebe told The Epoch Times. "For Democrats, and most of the community members here in Broome County, what we're looking for is affordable housing. People are really struggling to find someplace affordable and safe to live. Also, day-to-day expenses—folks recognize that inflation is a reality."

Beebe also acknowledged the role of opioids and fentanyl in fueling addiction and disrupting life in the county. If Republicans there had had their way, a Helio Health center that has been instrumental in treating addiction and helping people turn their lives around would never have opened its doors, she said.

"Our community desperately needed that center, and we have been very fortunate to have it because we definitely have a high death toll in Broome County from opioids," Beebe added.

Scott Steve, mayor of the town of Cortland, described Molinaro as an effective and engaged legislator who listens to constituents. He credited Molinaro with recently helping the town by cutting through red tape to secure reimbursement for funds disbursed under a grant program.

Steve agreed on the severity of the opioid crisis, and, given the location of Cortland, did not discount the role of immigration from out of state in fueling it.

"We're kind of uniquely situated between Binghamton and Syracuse, and five hours from New York City. Having opioids increase by such a high percentage has definitely affected everybody, and that's one of the most important factors" in the race, he told The Epoch Times.

Benji Federman, the New York State Senate's Southern Tier regional director, also emphasized the impact of illegal immigration on shaping voters' priorities in this race, as well as the pivotal role of Broome County in determining the outcome.

"Immigration, the immigration crisis, is really the top issue that we're hearing from voters up here. Unfortunately, New York state has now become a border state. A lot of illegal immigrants come in by way of Texas to upstate New York, and we're feeling the effects of that," Federman told The Epoch Times.

"We're seeing fentanyl pour over the border as people come into this country illegally," he said.

The problem is drawing bipartisan attention in the area. Stephen Flagg, a legislator for Broome County's first district, said he had quit the Republican Party, partly out of frustration over its failure to address the issue.

"I'm frustrated with the GOP in the state and federal government, quite honestly. Locally, I'm okay with it, but I think a lot of our party leaders have turned the state into a sanctuary state," Flagg told The Epoch Times.

In this district, as in others throughout the state, immigration is a top issue for voters. Williams states on his campaign website that legal immigration built America, but "illegal immigration is tearing our country apart."

"Under the Biden/Harris administration, every town has become a border town with the migrant crisis coming across our southern border," he said.

Connie White, a GOP organizer in upstate communities, echoed this sentiment while alluding to the connection between illegals carrying drugs across the border and the high rate of opioid overdose deaths in the state.

"We are very concerned about the border and what it has brought into our country. This protection, this sanctuary policy, it's nuts. Drug problems are all over," White told The Epoch Times.

Mannion said he wants a sensible and compassionate solution to the situation, uniting border protection with a "humane" legal process that works to the benefit of asylum seekers and refugees.