NFL picks | WEEK 11
Seattle at San Francisco (-61⁄2): San Francisco has won six straight in the series, including a playoff victory. Seattle is a long way from its 3-0 start under rookie coach Mike Macdonald. The Seahawks are coming off a bye, and they have the NFL's No. 1 passing offense behind Geno Smith, but their defense is bottom third. The 49ers just got Christian McCaffrey back last week, and this is the time of year when they go on a run.
Cincinnati at Los Angeles Chargers (-11⁄2): Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and the Bengals had a shot to knock off the Ravens last week, but blew a 14-point lead and then couldn't convert a 2-point conversion at the end. Burrow is playing his best football but has a tough challenge against a defense that has two straight games of six sacks or more. The Chargers are giving up the fewest points per game (13.1) and Justin Herbert has benefited from a strong rushing attack.
Green Bay (-61⁄2) at Chicago: Fresh off a bye, the Packers seek their first NFC North victory after losing to the two teams ahead of the them: Detroit and Minnesota. Jordan Love has thrown 10 picks in 240 attempts. Caleb Williams has struggled during a three-game losing streak, and the Bears fired their offensive coordinator this week. PACKERS:24-16
Baltimore (-3) at Pittsburgh: The Steelers have dominated this rivalry, winning seven of the past eight games. Russell Wilson gets his first taste of it after leading Pittsburgh to three straight wins in his first three games. The Ravens have the No. 1 rushing offense and are first overall in total yards, but the Steelers are fourth against the run. Jackson is 2-4 with four TDs, seven interceptions and a 66.8 passer rating against Pittsburgh.RAVENS:24-23
Jacksonville at Detroit (-14): The Lions found a way to win a difficult road game in Houston despite Jared Goff's five interceptions. With tougher games coming up, they can't afford a letdown against the overmatched Jaguars. The Jaguars are 1-6 in one-score games and have lost 13 of 16 since an 8-3 start last year after winning their division in 2022. LIONS:31-16
Minnesota (-6) at Tennessee: Sam Darnold is starting to show why he's on his fourth team, but the Vikings are still winning thanks to a stout defense. Darnold is tied with Jordan Love and Geno Smith for the most interceptions in the NFL with 10. Tennessee's defense is giving up the fewest yards per game. VIKINGS:
Los Angeles Rams (-41⁄2) at New England: The inconsistent Rams get a chance to rebound against an overmatched team that's coming off an impressive road win. Drake Maye has been a bright spot for the Patriots. New England sacked Bears QB Caleb Williams nine times and could make it tough on Matthew Stafford. RAMS: 24-17Indianapolis at New York Jets (-31⁄2): The Colts are going back to Anthony Richardson after Joe Flacco had six turnovers, including four interceptions, in the past two games. The Jets are more of a mess. Aaron Rodgers hasn't made an impact. The offense is 26th in yards and averaging just 17.7 points per game. JETS:17-16
Cleveland at New Orleans (-1): Jameis Winston returns to New Orleans, where he started 10 games in four seasons with the Saints. The Saints haven't turned the ball over in three games, though only won once. Cleveland's Nick Chubb could have a breakout game against a bottom-six run defense. BROWNS:20-17
Las Vegas at Miami (-8): Miami's offense is almost back on track with Tua Tagovailoa, and the defense stepped up in a road win against the Rams on Monday night. The Dolphins can climb back into the AFC wild-card race with two winnable games coming up against the Raiders and the Patriots. Las Vegas returns from a bye with three new assistant coaches. DOLPHINS:23-16
Atlanta at Denver (-21⁄2): Kirk Cousins and the rest of Atlanta's offense face a tough challenge in Denver against the league's fifth-ranked defense. Bo Nix outplayed Patrick Mahomes last week and should have plenty of time to throw facing the league's worst pass rush. Sean Payton has to make sure the Broncos aren't sulking after a crushing loss in Kansas City. BRONCOS:24-20
Kansas City at Buffalo (-21⁄2): The Chiefs' plus-58 point differential is the lowest of any of the 34 teams that have started 9-0. But Patrick Mahomes relishes the underdog role. The Chiefs have won five straight games as underdogs, including a victory at San Francisco in Week 7. The Bills are off to their best start since 1993, thanks to feasting on teams with a combined record of 26-49. Josh Allen is 3-1 against Mahomes in the regular season and 0-3 in the playoffs, including a home loss in the divisional round last January. CHIEFS:22-20
Houston (-71⁄2) at Dallas: The Texans blew a 16-point lead against Detroit and failed to take advantage of five picks. C.J. Stroud could get help if receiver Nico Collins returns. Houston won't need to score many points against Dallas, which won't have Dak Prescott for the rest of the season. The Cowboys can't run the ball, and that makes everything more difficult for backup QB Cooper Rush. Micah Parsons is the only one who could keep Dallas from another 20-point loss. TEXANS: 27-16
— Rob Maaddi, Associated Press
