NFL Picks for Week 12 as Giants cover against Patriots in New York
This weekend, the Steelers travel to Cincinnati for a must-win game if Mike Tomlin’s squad wants to remain in contention in the AFC North. Elsewhere across the league, the Giants host the Patriots in a matchup of two teams in transition periods and the Bills take on the Eagles. Keep reading for my best NFL picks for this weekend!
Here are the Week 12 NFL odds , courtesy of DraftKings.
Patriots: -3.5 (-112)
Giants: +3.5 (-108)
The Giants surprisingly won last week, giving this year’s team something to be happy about while likely harming their future outlook in the process.
However, while fans may embrace tanking, players and coaches most certainly do not. The Patriots may be one of the few teams in the league who are close to being as bad as the Giants are.
Legendary coach Bill Belichick has been seemingly unable to work his magic on either Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe, and there is plenty of smoke about the Pats potentially looking for a new quarterback next season.
Both of these teams are in a transition period, and I think the Giants will keep the score close at home in what will ultimately be an ugly game in the Meadowlands.
NFL Pick: Giants +3.5 (-108)
Steelers: -2 (-110)
Bengals: +2 (-110)
One strategy bettors try to take is to bet catalysts. This means betting on events that they think will have an outsized impact on a player or team’s performance when that event hasn’t had as significant of an impact on the game’s line movement as the bettor thinks it should have.
Well, a catalyst event occurred for the Steelers earlier this week when they made the shocking decision to fire offensive coordinator Matt Canada. The Steelers hope that Canada’s departure and a new playcaller at the helm will help unlock the potential of young quarterback Kenny Pickett, who has protected the football well this season but has struggled to move the ball through the air and find the end zone.
This decision, combined with news that Joe Burrow is out for the remainder of the season, helped flip the betting line from (-1) favoring the Bengals to (-2) favoring the Steelers.
Given the significance of these two events and the impact they will have on their respective teams, this spread should likely be closer to -3 backing the Steelers.
Their defense is elite and will make life miserable for Jake Browning, the new quarterback in Cincinnati. Prior to Burrow’s injury, Browning had only thrown one regular-season pass across five seasons in the NFL. That’s right: One.
Browning simply isn’t ready to face this caliber of defense yet, and if the coaching change in Pittsburgh can result in even minor improvements for Pickett and the passing game, they should cover this spread with ease.
NFL Pick: Steelers -2 (-110)
Jaguars: -1.5 (-110)
Texans: +1.5 (-110)
These two teams have one thing in common: They both have elite young quarterbacks on their roster that have demonstrated the potential to be franchise-altering cornerstones and building blocks at the league’s most important position.
After an up-and-down rookie season that had many questioning his long-held title of future face of the NFL, Trevor Lawrence has silenced all doubters and continues to improve seemingly every week.
On the other sideline, rookie QB CJ Stroud continues to light the league on fire, shredding the stigma about quarterbacks that come out of Ohio State in the process.
A string of elite, promising Buckeyes quarterbacks have made it to the league and fallen short of the sky-high expectations they set with their electrifying performances in Columbus. This has led to Ohio State quarterbacks being viewed as “system QBs” who benefit immensely from the talent around them, particularly the fact that OSU has become known in recent years as a wide receiver factory.
If anything, Stroud benefited the most from his wide receiver room in Columbus as he had Marvin Harrison Jr., Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Emeka Egbuka to throw to. However, Stroud is emerging as one of the best young quarterbacks in the league in Houston, playing aggressively while protecting the football and turning the Texans’ offense into one of the best in the league already at this point in his young career.
On a neutral field, these two teams appear to be a perfectly even matchup. Typically, home-field advantage in the NFL is considered to be worth three points. Therefore, the Texans in theory should be roughly three-point favorites in a home matchup against the Jaguars. In reality, however, they are just under two-point underdogs. This represents a swing of four and a half points and gives the Titans a particularly compelling betting thesis at home this weekend.
NFL Pick: Texans +1.5 (-110)
