NFL Thanksgiving roundtable: Are Lions true contenders? Should Aaron Rodgers risk a return?
Happy Thanksgiving! We hope you’re planning to enjoy some tasty turducken as you gobble up the three-game serving the NFL has prepared for you, along with the first-ever Black Friday game, to kick off Week 12 . The football feast starts with a classic NFC North showdown but with a twist. It’ll be the Detroit Lions (8-2) favored to beat the Green Bay Packers (4-6), as the Lions look to win their first division title since 1993, back when it was still the NFC Central.
Next up, coach Ron Rivera will try to get off the hot seat by leading his Washington Commanders (4-7) to what would be a massive upset over the division rival Dallas Cowboys (7-3). The Thursday menu concludes with a battle in the NFC West. The Seattle Seahawks (6-4) are reeling but could make the stretch run very interesting with a win at home over the surging San Francisco 49ers (7-3).
Finally, the weekday slate concludes Friday afternoon with the New York Jets (4-7) turning to Tim Boyle at quarterback, as they hope to snap a three-game losing streak by stunning the Miami Dolphins (7-3) in the Meadowlands.
The Athletic’s NFL writers Kalyn Kahler, Mike Sando and Jeff Howe try to make sense of it all in our roundtable previewing the week’s action.
When you think about the NFC’s elite teams, where do the Lions enter that equation? Can they get to No. 1 in your mind? If so, what do they still need to show you?
Kahler: It’s hard to quantify the ability to win games that they should have lost, but these Lions are great at that, with Sunday’s game against a bad Bears team as the latest example. The concern is with the defense and if they can hold in the postseason against better quarterbacks. Geno Smith , Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert have all diced up the Lions defense this season.
Sando: Concerns over their defense are one reason I still have the Lions below Philadelphia and San Francisco in the NFC. They rank last in defensive EPA per play over their past four games. They are 3-1 over that stretch and were able to pull out a win over Chicago on Sunday, but they also allowed 26 points to the Bears.
Howe: The Eagles, Cowboys and 49ers have higher ceilings, but I believe the Lions are tough and physical enough to be a matchup problem for anyone. I absolutely think the Lions are good enough to get to the Super Bowl, but they’re going to need the best version of Jared Goff to make that happen.
I know the three-interception game against the Bears was an outlier performance based on his track record in Detroit, but that’s a surefire path to an early postseason exit if it happens against a better opponent. The good news is Goff and the Lions showed they could overcome those mistakes by rallying for the win. Regardless of the opponent, that’s the type of performance that they can draw upon when they face adversity in January.
There’s been a lot of talk about Rivera’s seat getting warm. But while coach Mike McCarthy is enjoying an excellent season in Dallas, is it possible his job could be in jeopardy if the Cowboys disappoint in the postseason again?
Kahler: I think that’s a possibility. Dallas is in a very clear championship window right now, and it has been for the last few years and the Cowboys haven’t advanced past the divisional round. I think anything short of making it to the Super Bowl would put McCarthy on the hot seat. Dallas has looked formidable at times this season, but when playing the Eagles, a team it needs to match and overpower, it made several mistakes you just don’t see the Eagles make in the same situation. A delay of game, a tight end not running his route deep enough into the end zone to score, the quarterback stepping out of bounds just before scoring a two-point conversion. McCarthy said it after that loss: “It’s a game of inches.” If Dallas comes up short with another early playoff exit, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a change.
Sando: Owner Jerry Jones seems comfortable with McCarthy, so I would think it would take more than a playoff defeat to initiate a change. We would probably need to see the offense falter badly, Dak Prescott fall apart, those sorts of things. I don’t think Jones is striving to find the very best coach he can find at all costs. I think fit and comfort matter to him, and he seems to have those things with McCarthy right now.
Howe: I would never rule out anything with Jones. And quite frankly, anything short of an NFC Championship Game appearance should force Jones to assess everything with the Cowboys, including the coaching. They’re as talented as any team in the league, and Jones could hire just about any coach he wants because of the quality of that roster. McCarthy has done a good job in that seat, but the Cowboys should have a high standard.
It’s make-or-break time for the Seahawks , who embark on a brutal four-game stretch: San Francisco on Thursday, then at the Cowboys, at the 49ers again before finishing at home vs. the Eagles. Are the Seahawks good enough to withstand the stretch and stay in the NFC West title hunt?
Kahler: Doubtful for the NFC West, but if Geno Smith and Kenneth Walker can recover and miss minimal time, I think they could take at least one game from the Niners, and one from Dallas or Philadelphia. If they can come out of that stretch 2-2, they’ll be in good shape. No one among Seattle’s next three opponents, the top three teams in the NFC, feels unbeatable.
The #Seahawks feel they’re better equipped to deal with the 49ers this time around. Thanksgiving night is the chance for the Seattle to prove itself right. This game, against this opponent, was always going to be Seattle’s measuring stick this season. pic.twitter.com/abP8enlIrR— Dugar, Michael-Shawn November 21, 2023
Sando: Probably not. They’ll need to upset the 49ers on Thanksgiving to make it happen. Could they do that? Yes, but the odds are against that happening. I went into the season thinking the 2023 Seahawks would be about what the 2022 team was: in that 9-8 range, but probably not advancing in the playoffs.
Howe: Doubtful. There’s no doubt in my mind the Seahawks are one of the seven best teams in the NFC, but they’re limping toward a merciless gauntlet of opponents. Months ago, the Seahawks knew this four-game stretch would define their season, and now they’re heading into a short week against a physical team with a banged-up Smith and Walker. The wild thing here, though, is the Seahawks would still be very much alive for a playoff spot even if they go 0-4 during this stretch. They’ve got a two-game cushion for the final wild-card spot over the Packers , Rams , Falcons and Bucs, and I don’t foresee any of those teams ripping off a long winning streak. If the Seahawks emerge from this stretch with the mental fortitude to knock off the Titans , Steelers and Cardinals , they’ll reach the playoffs.
There’s been a lot of talk about Aaron Rodgers’ potential return in December. But if the Jets lose to Miami on Friday and fall to 4-7, would it even make sense to expose Rodgers to further risk of injury in what is quickly becoming a lost season?
Kahler: Nope. And I doubt he’d push to come back in that scenario. The story of Rodgers coming back for a Jets playoff run always seemed a little too perfect. I am still stunned that it took until this week for the Jets to make a quarterback switch. If they’d done it earlier, and risked alienating Zach Wilson sooner, I think they’d still be in a position to make a Rodgers comeback worth it. Josh Dobbs has made this team look foolish.
Looking at the latest Zach Wilson benching from three key perspectives:– What it means for Zach Wilson, present and future
– What kind of QB Tim Boyle is — and what it means for the #Jets offense
– How it impacts Aaron Rodgers’ potential return
— Zack Rosenblatt November 20, 2023
Sando: It doesn’t make any sense to me unless Rodgers is fully recovered. If fully recovered, it could be good for him to get some reps in this offense, although I think there’s a good chance there would be growing pains, and it wouldn’t look great. That could make it tougher for the Jets to sell hope, which is what they seem to be selling through Rodgers’ potential availability, and stories such as the one suggesting the team will pursue Davante Adams in the offseason.
Howe: I never believed it was realistic for Rodgers to return this season. I’d love to be wrong because that’d provide some incredible theater. But as the question notes, the Jets’ record might make that decision for him. I understand the need for change at QB, but Wilson is not the only problem with that offense. The lack of protection and the questionable play calling also deserve a significant chunk of the blame pie. They’re asking Boyle to be a miracle worker this holiday season.
This is not a question in the holiday spirit, so apologies. But do you expect another head coach to join Josh McDaniels and be fired before the end of the season? If so, who will be the next one let go and why?
Kahler: I’d say either Ron Rivera, Brandon Staley or Frank Reich. I’m only listing Reich because Reich has been vocal about how involved owner David Tepper is in meeting with him regularly, and because the offense there is failing in epic proportions while failing the No. 1 overall pick in Bryce Young . The pressure is high. I think Rivera is most likely because of new ownership in Washington and the fact that they may want to see what offensive coordinator Eric Bienemy can do in the interim role.
Sando: Two teams with defensive-minded head coaches and struggling defenses come to mind as potential candidates because they have offensive coordinators who could use the opportunity to audition for the top job. Those teams are Washington with Bieniemy and the Chargers with OC Kellen Moore. Washington makes the most sense given that Bieniemy has been a head coaching candidate for so long, and his offense has generally exceeded expectations this season.
The NFL coaching carousel has yet to begin spinning. But the seats of several coaches could be reaching a boiling point.Who could be hired in the next cycle? examines a bevy of candidates from Ben Johnson to Brian Flores
— The Athletic November 20, 2023
Howe: For something like this, you’ve got to look at the impulsive, unpredictable or unknown ownership groups. That may include the Panthers, Commanders and Titans. While Staley’s seat appears to be warming, the Chargers haven’t had a midseason firing since 1998, so such a move would go against Dean Spanos’ track record. Ditto for Matt Eberflus, as the Bears have remarkably never had a midseason coaching firing.
(Photo: Jorge Lemus, Ethan Miller, Michael Owens / )
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