NFL Week 12 Best Bets: Taking the Steelers, plus a Thanksgiving parlay

Week 11 of the NFL season was not kind as we managed to be on the wrong side of on-field miscues and some bad injury news. First and foremost, the Chiefs blew the Kelce Bowl with two red zone turnovers, one of the most cowardly punts of the season, and a flurry of dropped passes. That was a bit of the on-field miscues to cost us possibly two winners, but at least one. As for the injury news, Deshaun Watson was surprisingly announced out for the season last week, and the Browns still managed to win without him. Oh well, that’ll happen in the NFL. It felt like we were on the “right” side of things last week so let’s keep along with our process and hope we find some winners.

Last week’s record: 2-4, -1.85 units

Season record: 30-29, +0.40 units, +0.6% ROI

This week is winding up to be a little total heavy, which doesn’t excite me. Luckily, the totals are spread out on Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday, and Monday Night Football. Unluckily, that only gives us one play for Sunday (more adds to come later, possibly!), but the card is the card. I’m not going to force anything. Good luck to us and Happy Thanksgiving!

Thanksgiving Parlay

If you’re looking for extra Thanksgiving Day action, I’ll sprinkle some money on a Lions / Cowboys / 49ers moneyline parlay. That payout comes out around -110 right now, depending on the shop, and that’s what I’ll be rooting for in between the multiple meals I’ll be having. Enjoy!

NFL Week 12 Best Bets

Please make sure to shop around at various sportsbooks for the best possible number. Over the course of the season, a half point here or five cents there will add up.

Worst line to bet is the final number that I would make a bet at. For example, if I bet under 49.5 and the “worst line to bet” is 49 -110, I would not make that bet at 48.5 -110 or 49 -115.

All bets are to win one unit on favorites and risk one unit on underdogs unless otherwise noted. All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. for live odds.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions under 47 (-110) (to win 0.5 units)

Aaron Jones is a huge part of the Green Bay offense, and all signs point to him not being able to suit up on Turkey Day, so I think this under has some value. Now, I’m going to reduce risk a bit because I think this is a great matchup for Detroit’s offense, as I think we could see a big game from Jared Goff . Keep reading to see how I’m grabbing some value on this matchup for the Lions, but I just can’t lay 7.5.

Worst line to bet: Under 47 (-110)

There isn’t much to say about betting an under involving the New York Jets. They have a good defense and a dreadful offense. It’s really that simple. Now, the Dolphins have a very explosive offense, but things have come back to earth a little after their historic September. Since Week 4, Tua Tagovailoa ranks 16th among qualified quarterbacks in EPA/Dropback. I think the Jets’ defense can make Miami drive the entire field, and all we have to do is pray for no turnovers resulting in short fields.

Worst line to bet: Under 41 (-115)

This is a bit of a hold-your-nose bet with the state of the Steelers’ offense, but without Joe Burrow , I think the Bengals might be in a worse situation. Additionally, I think the Steelers have the superior defense, so what could go wrong? If you think the firing of Steelers’ offensive coordinator Matt Canada boosts their offense this week, then this edge is even bigger. I’m not adjusting the Steelers this week, but subjectively, things can only improve.

Worst line to bet: Steelers -1 (-115)

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings over 43 (-110)

I was really down on the Chicago Bears coming into the season, and you’d already know this if you followed my futures articles from the preseason. However, Chicago’s offense has quietly been cooking after a poor start to the season. Justin Fields is seventh in the NFL — per TruMedia — in EPA/Dropback since Week 4 and he rates near league average against the blitz in the same time frame. Minnesota is the most blitz-happy team in the NFL this season so Fields should be prepared. As for the other side of the ball, do we have another week of some Josh Dobbs magic? Hopefully.

Worst line to bet: Over 43.5 (-110)