NHL Playoff Report: Wild and Capitals on the rise, Predators and Bruins falling off
Welcome to the NHL Playoff Report, a monthly look at the league through the eyes of each team's chances of making the playoffs: who's up, who's down and why.
After each night's slate of games, our playoff projections page is updated taking into account the results from those games and fresh new data to feed into the model. Every night, everything changes and those changes add up quickly, especially if a team goes on a heater (or cooler). Those changes can also be difficult to view at a glance and it's good practice to take stock regularly of what's been happening. That's what the Playoff Report is all about.
Here's how things currently shake out in the East and West.
On the rise
Minnesota Wild
Initial expectations for the Wild were mild. That immediately looks way off — no other team has seen a bigger change in their point projection (+11.6) and Net Rating (+20.1) to start the season. That's led to substantial movement in Minnesota's playoff chances and the Wild are now a near lock (93.4%) to make it.
What's driving the rise? For one, somehow the Wild are even better defensively than expected, allowing just 1.84 expected goals against per 60 so far compared to an already staunch 2.24 last season. The team's top pair of Brock Faber and Jake Middleton have been a key factor there, allowing just 1.55 xGA/60 in 137 minutes together. Faber is proving himself as an elite No. 1 and Middleton has bounced back splendidly. Both defenders have seen their Net Rating jump by over three goals. It helps, too, that Filip Gustavsson looks like himself again behind that strong defense after a tough season last year.
Most importantly, though, it's having early Hart trophy frontrunner Kirill Kaprizov dominating every night. The model already thought very highly of him to start the season with a projected plus-22.7 Net Rating, but his torrid start has him up to plus-26 now. That puts him in Kucherov country — firmly a Tier 1 player. That's a tide that's lifted a lot of boats with Marco Rossi and Mats Zuccarello looking even stronger too.
Kaprizov's Wild look like a wagon.
Washington Capitals
Usually, when an unexpected team starts red-hot, that start also comes with red flags. It is very difficult to find with Washington right now — the Capitals look actually good. They have the second best expected goals rate in hockey, their penalty kill has been amazing and the power play has created a lot of looks so far.
The Capitals have deserved every bit of their 8-3-0 record, enough to see their Net Rating improve by 18.5 goals, all the way to plus-1.8. Average! That improvement, plus their actual results, has Washington in the playoff driver's seat with a 68 percent chance, way up from 19 percent to start the season. No team has seen a bigger jump in playoff odds.
To some, that still may feel too pessimistic given how good Washington looks so far. Dylan Strome is a legit No. 1 center, young players like Connor McMichael , Aliaksei Protas and Rasmus Sandin have levelled up, and the team's veteran core — Alex Ovechkin , Tom Wilson and John Carlson — has significantly turned back the clock. The Capitals seem like the real deal and deserve all the credit in the world for their start — especially managing it without prized free agent acquisition Matt Roy .
The pessimism, then, is due to questions of sustainability. How long can the Capitals keep playing at this level? The longer they do it, the more believable it becomes, obviously, but it still has only been 11 games. That small sample warrants some caution.
To wit, the last time the Capitals controlled play at this level (57.7 percent of expected goals) actually wasn't that long ago. It was late December 2022, fresh off a 9-1-0 stretch that gave the team a 20-13-4 record. They went 15-24-6 the rest of the way with 47 percent of the expected goals. That data point isn't meant to diminish what Washington has done so far, it's just to help explain why the Capitals aren't quite in playoff lock territory yet. It's important not to abandon your priors, but to adjust them at the right pace.
The Capitals have looked excellent to start and it is notable they look this good right out of the gate given all the changes made in the offseason. They're a team to watch, one that looks like a very solid playoff bet.
Carolina Hurricanes
Despite what many wanted to believe this offseason, the Hurricanes are still a Stanley Cup contender. The core is still good, the depth is still deep, and the system still works. But even the most optimistic probably would've had a hard time believing they'd start 8-2-0 and improving their five-on-five numbers. Carolina is currently sporting 62.6 percent of expected goals, up from 56.7 percent last season. Carolina: still good.
While the team's playoff odds didn't jump much (can't go much higher starting at 89 percent), the Hurricanes did see some of the biggest jumps everywhere else. Their projected point total is up 7.4 points, their odds of winning the division have doubled and most crucially their Stanley Cup odds have gone up significantly to 17.3 percent. They're the new favourites, surpassing the Oilers .
We'll see if this is the year Carolina actually makes good on that promise, but for now one big strength is the shuffle on defense. Dmitry Orlov and Jalen Chatfield have earned high marks stepping in as the new second pair, while the new third pair of Shayne Gostisbehere and Sean Walker have absolutely crushed their sheltered minutes. That blue-line depth is a big thing driving the team's early success.
Winnipeg Jets
The Jets are off to an incredible 11-1-0 start and while that's done great things for their playoff odds (+21 percent), their jump in Net Rating has been a little more modest. They get credit for a hot power play, but under the hood there hasn't been substantial movement in actual chances created there. At five-on-five, they actually have a lower goals and expected goals ratio compared to last year. Banking points is great and the Jets should once again be a threat to win the division, but there's a lot more room for regression here compared to the three teams above.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Columbus's playoff odds didn't materially change, but the underlying foundation looks stronger — enough to see a plus-20 improvement in Net Rating. A lot of credit here goes to the top line, all of whom have significantly levelled up thanks to earning 66 percent of expected goals together while scoring at near point-per-game paces. The other noteworthy thing: Elvis Merzlikins looks like himself again with 1.1 goals saved above expected. That helps his rating, as does the model slowly decreasing the weight of his challenging 2022-23 season as we move further into this season.
Falling off
Nashville Predators
An 0-5-0 start is a tough hole to dig out of and to their credit, the Predators have already almost erased that deficit with a 4-1-1 stretch since. Still, we all expected a lot more after Nashville's epic free agency splash that saw the team add Steven Stamkos , Jonathan Marchessault and Brady Skjei .
It can take time for a new team to gel and perhaps that's what we're seeing here, but to start the Predators are struggling to generate as much offense as last season. That's been especially felt down the depth chart where Nashville's lack of quality centers after Ryan O'Reilly has been a notable problem. Tommy Novak struggling to step up in a bigger role has been a big factor. Skjei was supposed to help with that from the back end, too, but his underlying numbers have been rough.
No team has seen their playoff chances drop more than Nashville, who have gone from 75 percent to start to 41 percent now. Pedestrian work at five-on-five is the biggest culprit within their control and that may change as the season progresses. But the biggest obstacle standing in Nashville's way may be entirely outside the team's control: the rise of both Minnesota and Winnipeg.
That leaves a stacked roster of teams ahead of the Predators in the Central (especially once Colorado gets healthy) which limits some of Nashville's playoff paths. The Predators entered the season relatively safe and likely in a battle for third with Winnipeg. They now look closer to a wildcard team with the model ranking them as the West's eighth best team.
Pittsburgh Penguins
While there wasn't much expectation for Pittsburgh to make the playoffs (the Penguins started the season at 37 percent), the early returns are even worse than imagined. After a 5-7-1 start that featured a six-game winless streak, the Penguins' odds are already down to just 11.6 percent.
No team has seen a bigger fall according to the model than the Penguins, whose Net Rating dropped 12.7 goals with most of the drop coming on the defensive side of the puck. Pittsburgh was already a wreck in that regard, but look even worse now going from 2.77 expected goals against per 60 last season to 3.25 in the early going. The team's worst offenders being their best players is especially concerning. Sidney Crosby , Bryan Rust and Erik Karlsson came into the season with below average Defensive Rating and those marks have only cratered further.
The biggest issue on the roster right now, though, might be Michael Bunting . Acquired in the Jake Guentzel deal, Bunting looked like a perfect fit in Pittsburgh with 19 points in 21 games last year. This season he has just one assist in 12 games. No player has seen a bigger one-month drop in projected Net Rating than Bunting who fell by 6.2 goals.
Utah HC
I expected Utah to be a featured player in the playoff race this season, but that's looking less likely now. A strong 4-1-1 start has been completely undone by a tough stretch where the Hockey Club has won just one of their last six games.
Utah's playoff chances have subsequently dropped from 54 percent to 29 percent with key injuries being a driving force. The loss of Sean Durzi was major, especially with how he was playing on the top pair next to Mikhail Sergachev (who has been as good as advertised). Not having John Marino for a while stings too and it leaves Utah with a fairly thin blue line after Sergachev. Michael Kesselring is a nice player, but if he's your team's second-best defenseman you may be in trouble.
That might be fine if Connor Ingram was holding things down behind a thin blue line, but he's regressed heavily to start. After saving 17.7 goals above expected last season and 8.9 the year before, Ingram has allowed 4.5 more than expected this year in 10 games. Hard to win being half a goal worse per game, and his .881 save percentage is far from enough. To get back on track with Durzi and Marino out long term, Utah desperately needs Ingram to find his game.
Boston Bruins
The Bruins have turned things around slightly with back-to-back shutouts over the weekend, but their playoff chances still only sit at roughly 50-50 right now. They've seen the third-biggest drop in Net Rating thanks to drops in play across the board. Their power play is worse than last year, their penalty kill is worse than last year and their work at five-on-five looks especially pedestrian with just 48 percent of the goals and expected goals.
The team is really struggling to score with the biggest drop in perception belonging to David Pastrňák . His projected Net Rating has gone from plus 22.4 to plus-19.7; still elite, but he hasn't looked anything close to a Tier 1 player.
Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers were the Stanley Cup frontrunner to start the season, but have now seen their Cup odds drop by four percentage points with a six-point drop in projected points. The main reason is an offense that doesn't look nearly as potent as expected, scoring 2.12 goals per 60 at five-on-five (down 0.77 from last season) and 5.2 goals per 60 on the power play (down 5.3). In both cases, they're generating fewer chances too — especially on the power play. The usually lethal unit currently sits 18th in power play xG per 60.
(Top photo: Carmen Mandato and Alex Goodlett / )
