Opinion - Harris needs to take off the gloves
I can't bear to say this, but Kamala Harris could lose if Donald Trump succeeds in bringing new likely voters into the electorate.
The polls tell us she is up almost 3 percent nationally, and is likely to win the popular vote. But her thin lead over Trump in six of the seven battleground states is within the margin of error.
She might widen her lead if there is an "October surprise." Special Counsel Jack Smith's "oversized" 180-page brief , now under seal in Washington, may reveal new levels of Jan. 6 Trump criminality if unveiled before the election. And there could be a deal in the Middle East, as Netanyahu has pledged to hold talks on a U.S.-proposed cease-fire in Lebanon that could ease fears of a regional war.
Trump has historically outperformed the polls, as many Trump voters are understandably ashamed to say they support him, and they are tabulated as uncommitted. But, alarmingly, the averages say Harris has come up short in states Biden won in 2020 — in Georgia, where she and Trump are essentially tied, and Arizona, where Trump has the edge.
In Pennsylvania, which is a must-win for Harris, a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll gives her a 5-point lead, although other polls show a closer race.
Harris is good at the subjects she is good at: abortion and Trump's bad character. She recently stood beside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and gave a dynamite speech defending our policy in Ukraine. Character is the only predictor we have of a president's conduct in office. Trump's character, viewed against her self-evident charisma and energy, has electrified her Democratic base. This excitement has given her a commanding 31-point lead with young voters . She clearly needs to carry that passion into other issues.
The electorate by now should be tired of Trump's kitschy speeches, his lowbrow allusions and his fusillade of lies. But voters want to hear from Harris how she is going to change their lives for the better over the next four years. She needs to be on a mission beyond "I am not Trump."
Like the good prosecutor that she is, Harris must come out swinging sternly with the facts. She should remind the voters that Trump's war on immigrants, particularly Black and Hispanic immigrants, is antithetical to the core values of our country.
We need immigrants to flourish. We need their talents, their energy and their skills. Their admittance to the country enhances national security and American exceptionalism.
There is no proof that we have admitted an abnormal number of rapists and murderers. Trump lies to the American people when he tells us that crime is down in Venezuela and Haiti because we admitted so many of their emigrants, that immigrants are rapists and murderers who steal and eat pets.
Research indicates that immigrants commit fewer crimes than U.S.-born people. We are a nation of immigrants, as Franklin Roosevelt reminded the Daughters of the American Revolution in 1938.
Trump's inhumane immigration policies include family separation and his promise that, if elected, he will use the military to round up immigrants and expel them from the country.
Trump's demagogic claim that immigrants are "poisoning the blood of our country" is a big lie. True, illegal border crossings soared to record levels under Biden, averaging 2 million per year from 2021 to 2023. The rise is attributable to a variety of factors, including asylum policy changes, economic conditions and the COVID pandemic. However, after the administration tightened border controls and closed off migrants' access to the asylum system, crossings dropped sharply.
Trump has played politics with the issue, rallying Republicans in Congress to block a bipartisan Senate bill that would have instituted far-reaching border reforms. Biden has proceeded by executive action, and recent months have left the border quieter than at any point since he took office.
As for the economy, Harris outlined a pragmatic approach in a speech to the Economic Club in Pittsburgh this week, with a sharp focus on middle-class and manufacturing opportunities by lowering costs, investing in American innovation and leading the world in future industries. "I'm a capitalist," she said. She made her case, and it landed.
She and Biden have accomplished much on the economy, a central concern for voters. Inflation is down to 2.5 percent , the lowest since Biden took office. The unemployment rate is just above 4 percent. A low unemployment rate indicates a strong economy, where most people who want to work can find jobs. Interest rates are down. The stock market is at record highs. The recovery from the pandemic-induced recession is notable, with improving job metrics and economic growth.
Trump has resorted to gimmickry smacking of "a chicken in every pot." He won't tax tips. He panders to seniors, saying he won't tax Social Security payments. She has remained silent.
According to the Washington Post , although Harris has improved on Biden's 2020 margins among some demographics, she is not yet replicating the coalition that won the White House. Her margin with Black voters is 53 points according to the latest polls. But Biden's margin among Black voters in 2020 was 81 points. With six weeks to go, Harris will be hard pressed to match Clinton's 86-point lead in 2016, let alone Obama's 93-point margin in 2012.
And, listening to Harris — with the notable exceptions of her spectacular convention speech and stunning debate performance, when she took off the gloves — is often lulling, like listening to elevator music. She needs to make clear her vision for the country and talk common sense to the American people.
James D. Zirin, author and legal analyst, is a former federal prosecutor in New York's Southern District. He is also the host of the public television talk show and podcast Conversations with Jim Zirin .
