OPINION: Election fallout might open way for a Native governor

Nov. 7—Democrats in New Mexico might find an upside to Kamala Harris' downbeat showing nationally.

Harris' defeat for president could crystallize New Mexico's next gubernatorial election, even though it's two years away.

Interior Secretary Deb Haaland will exit her office as Donald Trump returns to the White House. If Haaland, 63, wants to be governor, she would instantly become the Democratic front-runner.

As for the Republicans, while they are reveling in Trump's victory, they remain the 97-pound weakling of New Mexico politics. Any honest Republican viewing the party's bench of statewide candidates would admit it is empty.

Oh, I suppose the talent-dry GOP could try to recycle Nella Domenici, loser to Democrat Martin Heinrich in this week's U.S. Senate election. Republicans only nominated Domenici because of her famous surname and personal wealth that enabled her to spend liberally for the conservative cause.

Or perhaps the Republicans could beg former television meteorologist Mark Ronchetti to attempt a political comeback.

Ronchetti proved to be a powerhouse in GOP primaries, mostly because voters had seen him on television for two decades. General elections were another story. He lost races for the U.S. Senate in 2020 and governor in 2022.

In all likelihood, neither Domenici nor Ronchetti would sign up for another campaign built around their varying degrees of celebrity. They don't have the appeal that put Jesse Ventura and Arnold Schwarzenegger in a governor's mansion.

At least a few Republicans in the New Mexico Legislature should be prospects for a governor's race. None are, at least not if winning is the goal.

Electability is the single biggest detriment to Republican lawmakers stepping up. Availability is another factor.

Two of the Republican Party's more diligent state senators resigned this fall after forgoing reelection campaigns. Neither is positioned to return to politics for a statewide race that would be uphill.

Gentlemanly Steve Neville of Farmington was a savvy, detail-oriented senator. Now, at 74, Neville is busy helping to raise a grandchild.

Mark Moores represented a district in Albuquerque's Northeast Heights before moving to Las Cruces for business reasons. Moores at age 54 is happy being a husband and dad of two small children.

With Neville and Moores eliminated, it's a stretch to name another Republican legislator who would be a decent statewide candidate.

The Democrats offer more intrigue. Heinrich just won his third term in the U.S. Senate. A question he dodged during the campaign is whether he intends to stay in that job all six years or run for governor.

If Heinrich wants to be the next governor, he would have to start campaigning by June, only six months into his new Senate term. He would spend a year focused on the June 2026 Democratic primary election, a choice that would anger Democrats who expect their senior senator to deliver all possible checks and balances to Trump.

Still, if Haaland stands down, Heinrich could be the Democratic Party's most formidable candidate for governor. And if Heinrich won, he might be able to choose his own successor in the Senate, a situation that would be ripe for deal-making.

I cannot imagine Heinrich and Haaland running against one another. I can foresee one being governor and the other a U.S. senator. Each could fill either seat.

Haaland has the upper hand. She has become a political star in the last decade, the beginnings of which were forgettable.

Long active in Democratic campaigns, Haaland was the party's candidate for lieutenant governor in 2014. A dull legacy politician named Gary King was at the top of the Democratic ticket. He dragged it to depths not seen since Dwight Eisenhower's first term as president.

Republican Susana Martinez trounced King. Worse for Democrats, Republicans won control of the state House of Representatives for the first time since 1953.

Following that embarrassment, Haaland was elected chairwoman of the state Democratic Party. Her side won back the House of Representatives in 2016 and outpointed Martinez in legislative confrontations. For instance, Martinez vetoed 10 bills but refused to explain why. Democrats sued her, won the case and all 10 bills became law.

A Native American and enrolled member of the Pueblo of Laguna, Haaland also showed promise as a candidate. She had too much voltage to remain an underling on a ticket or a behind-the-curtain party executive.

Haaland topped a crowded field to win the Albuquerque-based congressional seat in 2018. She was one of the first two Native women in the House of Representatives, seated along with Sharice Davids of Kansas.

Voters reelected Haaland in 2020. President Joe Biden chose her soon after to run the Department of the Interior, a plum appointment.

Hers is an all-American story with a few chapters to be written. The next one might be set in the governor's office.