OPINION: Pope Francis wants the 'lesser of two evils' as president. That might backfire
Although it is fair to say that many people supporting Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are enthusiastic about their choices, many others are unhappy with both.
With a few words spoken during a news conference aboard the papal plane, Pope Francis summed up and associated himself with the decision facing a group of pivotal American voters: those who hold negative views of both candidates.
"One must choose the lesser of two evils. Who is the lesser of two evils? That lady or that gentleman? I don't know," the 87-year-old pontiff said as he returned from a 12-day tour of Southeast Asia. "Everyone with a conscience should think on this and do it."
In an election that seems likely to be decided by the tightest of margins in a relatively small number of states, these voters could determine who becomes the next president.
That brings us to the "Mae West effect."
Here's how the Mae West effect worked in the last elections
In the last two elections, we introduced what we call the Mae West effect to correctly predict the winner in both elections. We defined this effect from one of the many colorful statements by the bawdy Vaudeville and Hollywood entertainer of the 1920s and 1930s.
"When choosing between two evils, I always like to try the one I've never tried before," she said.
We suggested that the Mae West effect comes into play in elections where a large number of voters perceived both candidates negatively and when forced to choose between what they considered the "lesser of two evils," decided to try the new one.
A quick history:
In September 2015, we proposed that this effect would tip the 2016 presidential election away from Hillary Clinton, who, along with her husband, had long been on the political scene, and toward Donald Trump, the political newcomer.
In October 2019, we suggested that the effect could turn the 2020 election from Donald Trump, whose fervent support stagnated as his negatives increased, in a contest against his eventual Democratic opponent, who turned out to be Joe Biden.
In October 2023 we wrote, "in many voters' minds, both Trump and Biden are now 'tried evils,'" both of whom had relatively high negatives, and the Mae West effect was unlikely to aid either man in a rematch. Long before Biden's disastrous debate with Trump led him to withdraw from the race, we observed that Biden's and Trump's high negatives could open the door to a new face if either party chose a different candidate, without the perceived negatives of Trump and Biden.
We now think that Kamala Harris could be that new winning face.
Trump can link Harris to Biden, but he remains undisciplined
Considering the relatively low profile of most vice presidents and Harris' late entry into the presidential race, fewer voters either love or hate Harris. To date, she has somewhat capitalized on this uncertainty about her positions by introducing a scant number of policy positions and allowing voters to project their own hopes onto her candidacy.
The surest way for Republicans to defeat Harris is to link her to Biden's negatives by suggesting that she is equally responsible for his policies, which critics link to higher inflation and other economic woes.
In our judgment, Trump's belittling references to her as "Comrade Harris" and accompanying claims that she is a Marxist, his refusal to pronounce her name correctly, and his accusations that she has identified as an African American only in recent years, are more likely to raise his own negatives than hers, especially among some key constituencies.
Trump could help the situation were he to discipline himself enough to quit reminding those with negative opinions of him about how they acquired them, but at least to date, he has been unable to do so.
His performance in his debate with Harris suggested he was more concerned about crowd sizes than about policies.
In the meantime, Republican vice-presidential candidate, Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, appears to have stimulated far more negatives than Democratic vice-presidential candidate, Gov. Tim Walz, D-Minnesota.
It is doubtful that the Pope's equivocal stance is likely to sway voters one way or the other, but if the Mae West effect comes into play in this election, it seems more likely to favor Harris than Trump.
Kent Syler is a professor of political science and public policy at Middle Tennessee State University. Email:
Dr. John R. Vile is a professor of political science and dean of the University Honors College at Middle Tennessee State University. Email:
