Our expert prop bets for NFL Week 11: Picks for Tagovailoa, Henry and Gibbs

The NFL is littered with former Alabama stars. As we do weekly in this space, we're highlighting the best NFL Week 11 player props for the biggest former Alabama stars on of the NFL's best teams (sorry, Tua).

Tua's Dolphins are certainly not among the NFL's elite, but they have an extremely important (and winnable) game against the Raiders. Meanwhile, Derrick Henry's Ravens face the rival Steelers in a massive AFC North clash, while Jahmyr Gibbs' Lions are in a potential let-down spot against the Jaguars.

Let's get into my expert NFL Week 11 player prop bets for Tua Tagovailoa, Derrick Henry and Jahmyr Gibbs.

Best Tua Tagovailoa props for Dolphins vs. Raiders

Under 29.5 pass attempts: -127 at Caesars (1 unit)

-115 at DraftKings (.25 unit)

*Note:

The Dolphins are 3-6 after last week's 23-15 win over the Rams, which means every game is a must-win the rest of the way. So why am I calling for Tagovailoa to go Under his passing attempts total? It starts with the fact the Dolphins, for all of their weapons on the outside, are a zone-rushing team at heart.

Want proof? There's two ways I can prove this. Mike McDaniel was the offensive coordinator for six years under Kyle Shanahan in San Francisco. It's well-established that everything else in Shanahan's offensive scheme (which is now all over the league) derives from running the ball.

The Dolphins are running the ball 47% of the time (12th in the league, per Teamrankings.com), which is the highest mark of the McDaniel era. That number is a bit inflated because Tua was out with a concussion, but it will likely remain elevated since they also want to protect their star QB from suffering yet another head injury.

De'Von Achane was held in check against the Rams (12 carries, 37 yards), however, that is largely due to the fact that the Rams' defense goes against the same offense in practice (Sean McVay was also an assistant under Shanahan).

Here's the kicker: The Raiders are the 11th-worst rush defense in the NFL (129.9 ypg). They also will be starting turnover-prone journeyman Gardner Minshew. The Dolphins' defense has been outstanding against the pass this year (191.3 ypg - 8th)' which increases the chances of this game getting out of hand (which will keep Tua's attempts down).

I do like Tua to throw at least two TDs in this game, however, because the Dolphins' offense is so explosive and the Raiders have the third-worst scoring defense in the NFL (27.9 ppg).

Best Derrick Henry prop bets for Ravens vs. Steelers

Derrick Henry first TD scorer: +400 at BetMGM (.25 unit)

+270 at DraftKings (.25 unit)

The Steelers' rushing defense has been fantastic, ranking fourth in the NFL (87.1 ypg). But here is why I like Henry to score multiple times, including the first score of the game: The Steelers allow the second-fewest rushing yards to QBs (61 yards).

Lamar Jackson likely isn't breaking a long one, and we know the Ravens' offense is unlikely to be held out of the red zone all game. Where the Steelers are vulnerable is against running backs in the red zone. Pittsburgh has allowed 7 rushing TDs to running backs, which puts them in middle of the pack league-wide.

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I also like Henry to score twice for a quarter unit. This play is mainly on the hope he gets multiple short-yardage carries (he scored twice against Denver's top-10 run unit two weeks ago, so the Steelers don't scare me much here). There is also an outside chance that Henry bursts through a stacked box and goes for 50+ yards, like we've seen him do multiple times this year.

Best Jahmyr Gibbs prop bets for Jaguars vs. Lions

Over 17.5 receiving yards: -114 at FanDuel (1 unit)

Over 13.5 rushing attempts: -113 at FanDuel (1 unit)

At the time of publication, FanDuel was the only sportsbook I could find offering receiving yardage props for Gibbs. That's a shame because the Jags defend running backs in the passing game as well as the Chicago Bears' locker room defends Caleb Williams (at least that's the rumor).

Jacksonville is fourth-worst in the NFL in several categories when it comes to stopping running backs in the passing game (receptions: 58, yards: 463, and TDs: 4). Gibbs is averaging 9.2 yards per catch this season. He only needs two catches, which is his season average, to go over this number.

Gibbs should also go over his rushing attempts total, given that the game script will likely favor Detroit. The Lions are massive favorites and will want to send a message after they looked shaky in a miracle comeback win over Houston. What better team to do that against than the Jaguars? Jacksonville allows 129.4 rushing yards per game (20th) and its defense will be on the field quite a bit with Mac Jones making a second start in place of Trevor Lawrence.