Pac-12 bowl projections: Washington to the CFP, USC to Las Vegas and UCLA to the LA Bowl

Helpful reminders on the postseason selection process before we plunge into the latest Pac-12 bowl forecast:

— The Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl will host the College Football Playoff semifinals, leaving the Pac-12 champion to participate in the Fiesta, Peach or Cotton bowls unless it qualifies for the CFP.

— The Pac-12 is contractually tied to seven games this season: the New Year’s Six, Alamo, Las Vegas, Holiday, Sun, LA and Independence bowls. If there are more eligible teams than available spots, the conference will attempt to secure invitations to other bowls with vacancies.

The Pac-12 has seven bowl-eligible teams and two more that could clear the bar this weekend, but Cal and Washington State are substantial underdogs on the road at UCLA and Washington, respectively.

What if they finish 5-7, one win below the threshold for qualification?

The NCAA permits five-win teams to participate in the bowl season if there aren’t enough eligible schools to fill the 82 slots, but the Pac-12 does not.

In 2018, the conference’s athletic directors, with an assist from the conference office, voted to prohibit 5-7 teams from bowling even if there were spots available.

Why voluntarily deny your team the competition, your players the reward, your coach the practices, and your conference the television exposure?

The explanation was largely rooted in economic considerations. For 5-7 teams, bowls were likely to be money losers because of poor ticket sales and high travel costs.

But with the Pac-12 in its final season, the dynamics have changed — and the conference is smartly considering a reversal of course that would allow any five-win teams to participate.

According to a source familiar with the situation, a vote of the athletic directors is expected this week. (A simple majority is needed for approval. There is no minimum requirement in the event some schools abstain.)

We expect the rule to change. Why would any of the departing schools deny WSU, for example, the chance to go bowling?

However, approval is only one step if WSU and Cal finish 5-7. (Colorado could also land on five wins with a victory over Utah.)

It’s possible there will be enough six-win teams across the Football Bowl Subdivision to fill every berth in the 41 games.

And even with a vacancy or two, other 5-7 teams could have priority over the Bears or Cougars. (The selection order is based on academic achievement.)

But a vote to overturn a bad rule is never wrong, especially in the Pac-12 this season.

And if given the chance, we suspect the Bears and Cougars would be interested in extending their seasons.

To the bowl projections ...

College Football Playoff/Rose Bowl

Team: Washington (11-0/8-0)

Comment: The only reason for the CFP selection committee to slot UW behind Florida State in the new rankings would be an aversion to purple, coffee or Nirvana, because the resumes aren’t comparable. That said, it doesn’t matter. If the Huskies win their next two, they’re in.

New Year’s Six/Fiesta Bowl

Team:

Comment: It gets interesting if the Ducks lose Friday night, because they probably wouldn’t qualify for the Pac-12 championship game, and their resume is deteriorating (see: Utah). So falling out of the New Year’s Six would be a distinct possibility.

Alamo Bowl

Team:

Comment: With a victory in Tempe, the Wildcats are likely headed to either the Alamo or the New Year’s Six (hello Fiesta). In the event of a loss in Tempe, they’re a solid bet for Las Vegas in tandem with the basketball team, which plays in Sin City on the same day as the bowl game.

Las Vegas Bowl

Team:

Comment: The Trojans have a significant range of postseason options because of their brand value (on the high end) and their loss total (on the low end). Also, because of quarterback Caleb Williams’ uncertain status and the flexibility afforded Pac-12 bowl partners under the selection policy. In other words, we have no idea where the Trojans will land.

Holiday Bowl

Team: Oregon State

Comment: The Beavers would be an ideal match for the bowl, conference and school. They have never been to the Holiday, and the Holiday has no beef with the Beavers.

Sun Bowl

Team:

Comment: The Utes’ last season in the Pac-12 could conclude in the same location as its first season in the Pac-12. They beat Georgia Tech 30-27 in the Sun Bowl on the final day of 2011.

LA Bowl

Team:

Comment: We project the Bruins to lose to Cal this week — the visitors will be desperate — and slide down the bowl ladder. (The Holiday and Sun would accept any alternative over them.) But if UCLA wins, it could climb into the Las Vegas Bowl against a future Big Ten peer.

Independence Bowl

Team:

Comment: Plenty of uncertainty here, not only with Cal’s postseason prospects but also the Pac-12’s ability to fill this spot with anyone. If losses mount at the top of the conference and only one team reaches the New Year’s Six, then everyone slides down one rung and there will be options for Shreveport.

Non-qualifier

Team:

Comment: For the 14th time in the past 16 seasons, the Buffaloes are home for the holidays — an astounding stretch of losing for a program that was a regular postseason participant for two decades.

Non-qualifier

Team:

Comment: The final game for Stanford as a member of the Pac-12 will come against Notre Dame, which is a member — in all sports but football — of the Cardinal’s new home, the ACC. It’s going to be weird at Stanford Stadium on Saturday afternoon.

Non-qualifier

Team: Washington State

Comment: We don’t give the Cougars much chance in the Apple Cup, but they certainly have a better shot than we would have envisioned a week ago — before their sterling performance against Colorado.

Team: Arizona State

Comment: There’s always next year ... unless the NCAA, which has yet to issue sanctions for the COVID-era recruiting transgressions, whacks ASU with a postseason ban for 2024.

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