Perk’s Pick for most likely team to collapse this season - the Dallas Mavericks?

Kendrick Perkins , panelist on ESPN's NBA Today , was recently asked "which team is most at risk to collapse this upcoming season?" His response? The Dallas Mavericks . While this comes as little surprise given his Mavericks-related takes in the past, the rationale behind his choice is somewhat perplexing. In a monologue lasting just over a minute, Perkins' focus was on both Klay Thompson and Luka Doncic .

Starting with Thompson, he asked "is Klay Thompson really gonna turn back the hands of time?" The thought that immediately came to mind was "does he need to?" Thompson, now 34, suffered back-to-back major injuries which put him out of action for the entire 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 seasons, as well as a portion of 2021-2022. He has also likely lost a step on the defensive end. However, taking a closer look at his numbers is revealing. In his first full season back (2022-2023), Thompson averaged 21.9 PPG in 69 games. The following season his scoring dropped to 17.9 PPG, but his MPG, FGA and 3PA were all down too, as the Golden State Warriors looked to incorporate some of their younger players more. He also came off the bench in 14 of his 77 games (though he performed well), marking his first bench role since his rookie campaign.

While Father Time remains undefeated, Thompson has bounced back remarkably and continues to perform well. Already guaranteed a starting role with the Mavericks, it is not unreasonable to suspect Thompson will produce at least at the same level as last year. Factor in the gravity of two talented distributors in Doncic and Kyrie Irving , and Thompson may get some of the easiest looks of his career.

In respect of Doncic, Perkins' rationale was even more puzzling. Starting off by saying "we saw last season when he got to the NBA Finals , some could argue that Luka somewhat ran out of gas," he then immediately went on to praise Doncic's scoring, rebounding and playmaking. Perkins completely ignores the fact that most gassed players don't lead their team in PPG (29.2), RPG (8.8) and APG (5.6) during The Finals. These averages of course followed a Regular Season that is the stuff of legend. Doncic averaged a ridiculous 33.9 PPG, 9.2 RPG and 9.8 APG. As Perkins said, "some could argue" that Doncic was gassed on the basis his number went from absurd to just insane, however even if you buy that, two counter-points deserve mentioning. First, the Boston Celtics had the third-best defense in the NBA. Second, Doncic was the walking wounded by the time The Finals rolled around, nursing a knee injury, ankle injury and thoracic contusion, to say nothing of other dings and dents such as a scary face-plant .

While Doncic was worn down and physically beat up, it's difficult to suggest he was simply gassed while dismissing other obvious considerations that most likely will play less of a factor on a deeper Mavericks team than last year's roster. Looking forward to next season, Doncic is already making headlines for his commitment to his Off Season training regimen and conditioning , further undermining Perkins' take here.

None of us can predict the future and Perkins may be proven right, though I suspect that even if he is it will not be for the reasons he gave. The Mavericks will need to incorporate some new faces , but are arguably deeper, more versatile and have more veteran experience than last season when they made their run to The NBA Finals.