Phillies' nightmare seeding scenario, matchup for 2024 MLB Playoffs
The MLB playoffs have caused plenty of chaos over the past few years with the new 12-team format. The team with the worst record in the National League reached the World Series in 2022 and 2023. One of those teams was the Philadelphia Phillies , who have since become a mainstay in the postseason.
The Phillies won't be an afterthought during the playoffs this year. Philadelphia enters Friday with the best record in baseball and could secure home-field advantage throughout the postseason. They have the same record as the Los Angeles Dodgers but own the tiebreaker so there is still work to do before the regular season concludes.
Some teams don't pay attention to their seeding and simply have a goal of getting into the dance. Others strategize around claiming a certain seed. The Phillies haven't indicated which route they prefer, but it would be wise for them to aim for the highest seed possible. Who wouldn't want as many home games as possible?
Top seeds have not fared well in the new MLB postseason format though. Only one of the four World Series teams had a bye to the Division Series over the past two years. Perhaps the Phillies can buck that trend , but they have to secure one of the top two seeds first.
Phillies losing grip on Wild Card bye
A lot can happen in 10 days and for the Phillies, they hope it's good things over the next week and a half. Philly has a three-game lead over the Milwaukee Brewers for a top-two seed in the National League. The Brewers kept things interesting this week with a series win over the Phillies.
The Phils were a Wild Card team in each of the past two seasons, reaching the World Series and NLCS in those years. That doesn't mean they should be aiming for the third seed with their grip on the NL East basically secured.
If the Phillies were to get the three seed, they run the risk of losing a three-game series. That is very possible even for a team as talented as the Phils. If key bats go cold over the course of two games, that could spell the end of the season.
The New York Mets won 100 games in 2022 but did not win the division. They ended up losing at home in the Wild Card series. It goes to show that there is not much merit to playing well in the regular season. There are still pros to earning one of the two byes.
The Phillies especially could use a couple of days off to rest a few banged-up players. Bryce Harper has been dealing with an elbow ailment while J.T. Realmuto has missed games here and there. Austin Hays, a key trade deadline acquisition, remains on the injured list as well, though his return is expected before the playoffs.
Pitchers are creatures of habit so they might be disappointed with a five-day break. The Phillies should be confident in their rotation in any playoff series, but they should help themselves and secure a top-two seed to rest a few key arms.
Can Philly get past Arizona?
If there's one team that's given the Phillies problems recently it's the Arizona Diamondbacks. The D-backs stunned the Phils last October, winning Games 6 and 7 of the NLCS in Philadelphia to win the NL pennant and earn a berth in the World Series.
Though the Diamondbacks ultimately lost, their victory over the Phillies left a lasting impact on the Philadelphia fanbase. The fact that another team could come into Philly and beat the Phils the way the D-backs did was shocking. Avoiding another similar scenario would be wise for the Phillies. That may not be possible though.
Arizona is tied with New York for the fifth seed/second Wild Card spot. The Mets own the tiebreaker, so the D-backs must finish with a better record. If not they'll land on the sixth seed, so long as they hold off the Braves who are two games back on Friday.
If it shakes out the right way with seeding, there's a chance the Phillies and Diamondbacks meet in the NLDS. That is not an ideal matchup for the Phils, who lost the season series to the D-backs this year after dropping four of five in the NLCS last October.
The Diamondbacks are not afraid of the Phillies , nor anyone else. They knocked out a 100-win Dodgers team in the NLDS last year after beating the NL Central champion Brewers in the Wild Card Series.
The Phillies should be confident going into any playoff series against any opponent. They might have some nerves if they run into the Diamondbacks. It will make for another great series, but Phillies fans will age a lot if they're matched with the D-backs in the playoffs again.
