Pick Six Previews: Ollie Gordon II to help Oklahoma State outpace BYU
Brigham Young quarterback Jake Retzlaff (12) passes the ball as BYU and Oklahoma play at LaVell Edwards stadium in Provo on Saturday, Nov. 18, 2023. OU won 31-24. (Scott G Winterton, Deseret News)
Estimated read time: 4-5 minutes
PROVO — While there may be no moral victories in college football, it is also true that not all losses are created equal.
As four touchdown home underdogs, and reeling off of three straight blowout losses, BYU rallied on senior day and took Big 12 powerhouse Oklahoma down to the wire. Even in the 31-24 loss, the Cougars showed the fight and high energy that was missing recently.
With that said, not all turnovers are created equal, either. In the third quarter, BYU was at the Oklahoma goal line, about to take the lead, when Jake Retzlaff's pass was intercepted by Billy Bowman, who raced 100 yards to score in the other end zone. That, alone, is a 14-point swing in a game that finished with a 7-point decision.
All season long, the turnover margin has been the key indicator of whether BYU wins or loses — they are 5-0 when finishing on the plus side in turnovers, and 0-6 when tied or negative. With a -3 finish Saturday, that trend continued. In addition to the 100-yard pick six, BYU's other two turnovers also led directly to Oklahoma touchdowns.
After going the distance with generational blue blood Oklahoma, BYU has one more shot to secure the bowl-clinching sixth win as they travel to Stillwater to face No. 20 Oklahoma State (1:30 p.m. MST, ABC).
Not only would a BYU win earn the valuable 15 bowl practices as they develop into their Power Five conference, it would also send the Big 12 into a frenzy of tiebreaker scenarios for the title game.
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
BYU 60.5 (16th of 69 Power Five) | Oklahoma State 61.2 (14th)
BYU 45.4 (50th of 69 Power Five) | Oklahoma State 47.3 (46th)
BYU 33.3 (63rd of 69 Power Five) | Oklahoma State 57.2 (24th)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance — and adjusts for opponent strength — and is a key piece of my preseason evaluation. After peaking at No. 5 in 2020, BYU slid to No. 26 in 2021 and then collapsed last year all the way down to No. 50 (of 69 Power 5 teams) for the second-worst grade of the entire Kalani Sitake era.
BYU moved up one spot after the close loss to No. 14 Oklahoma. BYU actually outgained the Sooners; and even with the loss on the scoreboard, this was BYU's fourth highest Game Grade of the season.
We see roller coaster seasons every fall, but this 2023 Oklahoma State season could be the wildest yet. They opened the season with a three-way quarterback battle, in which head coach Mike Gundy rotated them every two series nonstop for most of September. They were blown out by non-AQ South Alabama, then lost the league opener to Iowa State.
In October, they found lightning-in-a-bottle with running back Ollie Gordon II and then rattled off five straight wins, including victories over both eventual tiebreakers Kansas State and Oklahoma. The roller coaster took a sharp turn again as they were destroyed 42-3 by UCF. After that roundabout path, the Cowboys check in at No. 24 in 2023 Game Grader.
Oklahoma State with the ball
Oklahoma State offense:
BYU defense:
BYU's defense was in free fall the past month and had fallen into the bottom 10 of almost all of my opponent-adjusted stat categories. The matchup with Oklahoma was projected to be a landslide in favor of the heavily-favored Sooners and their Heisman candidate quarterback Dillon Gabriel.
That's why we play the games. BYU stunned Oklahoma and held them to their second fewest yards and third fewest rushing yards in any game this year. Part of that was due to Gabriel's injury, knocking him out of the game near halftime, but still the run defense worked magic.
The Cougars will need more of that — and then some — to try to contain Oklahoma State's likely All-American running back. Gordon is the nation's leader with 1,414 rushing yards, the only 200-carry back averaging 6.5+ yards per attempt, and is second in Power Five with 15 rushing touchdowns.
This matchup significantly favors Oklahoma State as the nation's rushing champ lines up against a bottom five rushing defense.
BYU with the ball
BYU offense:
Oklahoma State defense:
Critics can point to Gabriel's injury as the main reason for BYU's defensive surge last week. That injury cannot be the scapegoat for the other side of the ball.
BYU's offense posted its best yardage output of the season (390 yards) and did so against the best defense it faced all year. Oklahoma was ranked in the Top 10 of almost all of my opponent-adjusted metrics, and this BYU output ended up as the Sooners' second worst yards per play allowed in 2023.
Turnovers — and the RPO play-call at the 2-yard line — ruined an otherwise spectacular performance.
Look for even more production Saturday as BYU faces a bottom 10 defense. It may have taken 12 weeks, but BYU will finally eclipse the 400-yard mark here. This Cowboys defense is reeling after allowing 500 yards per game and a high 7.6 yards per play the past three games.
Game prediction
Both teams have huge stakes. BYU seeks bowl eligibility in their first Power Five season, while Oklahoma State can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game.
The defenses have struggled for most of the season, but Oklahoma State has flashed a much higher ceiling on offense. Look for Gordon to get 30+ carries and for the Cowboys to outpace the Cougars.
Oklahoma State 38 | BYU 23
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Brett Ciancia
Brett Ciancia is the owner of Pick Six Previews, a college football preview magazine graded as the "Most Accurate Season Preview" since 2012 (via Stassen). Ciancia was named a Heisman Trophy voter in 2019 and was invited to the FWAA's All-America Team selection committee in 2020.
