Pick Six Previews: Utah to send out seniors the right way against Colorado
Utah running back Micah Bernard (2) runs past Colorado linebacker Devin Grant (44) for a touchdown as Utah quarterback Cameron Rising (7) gestures in the first half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Nov. 26, 2022, in Boulder, Colo. (David Zalubowski, Associated Press)
Estimated read time: 4-5 minutes
SALT LAKE CITY — Utah's unprecedented injury run caught up to them Saturday as the depleted roster fell behind 28-0 in the first 15 minutes and eventually lost 42-18 to No. 17 Arizona.
The hometown Wildcats outgained the Utes 198-23 in first-quarter yardage while building an untouchable early lead. The loss snapped Utah's six-game winning streak in the Arizona series, and marked the first time since 2017 that they lost three regular season games over a four-game span.
A severe injury run, in the most top-heavy Pac-12 in decades ... this program simply ran out of gas.
While the quest for the Pac-12 three-peat is done, Utah still has an opportunity to send off its seniors the right way with a final home win, and then go for a nine-win season in the bowl. In their final Pac-12 game in program history, Utah hosts fellow future Big 12 opponent Colorado (1 p.m. MST, Pac-12 Networks).
Game Grader
(Opponent-adjusted statistical dominance via Pick Six Previews)
Utah 66.9 (6th) | Colorado 28.2 (67th of 69 Power Five)
Utah 69.2 (10th) | Colorado 10.6 (69th of 69 Power Five)
Utah 53.7 (30th) | Colorado 38.1 (55th of 69 Power Five)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical dominance — and adjusts for opponent strength — and is a key piece of my preseason evaluation. Utah stacked another national top 10 finish last year, and thanks to the high amount of returning production, program-record recruiting classes, and proven coaching staff, they earned a No. 8 rank in my 2023 preseason magazine.
Utah fell five spots to No. 30 in Power Five Game Grader after the decisive 42-18 loss to Arizona.
Last season, Colorado went 1-11 and was one of the lowest season grades I've ever evaluated in my Game Grader formula since its launch in 2009. In the offseason, Colorado hired Deion Sanders and embarked on an unprecedented roster overhaul — some 65+ players cycled in and out, and their new Frankenstein roster garnered the national spotlight after a 3-0 start in September.
This was the most-watched team in America and the storylines transcended the college football sphere.
Since that peak, it's been more like their dreadful 2022 season. They are 1-7 since that 3-0 start, and are stuck in dead last of the Pac-12. The initial hype of the Prime Effect has worn off.
Colorado with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
Colorado offense:
Utah defense:
Utah has battled injuries all season, and last Saturday it hit a breaking point. In addition to the original cast of injured starters, they also lost linebacker Kerene Reid, safety Cole Bishop, and likely All-American defensive end Jonah Elliss.
The shorthanded defense ran into a surging Arizona offense, and the 42-18 result sank Utah down five spots in my overall defense metric (opponent-adjusted, per-play).
They were burned on third downs all game. Arizona converted 63%, but was really 5-of-7 (71%) when the game was still competitive — and most were back-breaking.
Morgan Scalley's unit gets a much more favorable matchup Saturday, as Colorado has struggled to do anything well since the September fireworks. Sheduer Sanders does place in the top 5 of Pac-12 QB Rating and posted a strong 27-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio, but Colorado's run game is ranked dead last in Power Five per my opponent-adjusted metrics.
I expect the Utah front seven to consistently disrupt Colorado's run game and get plenty of hurries and sacks on Sanders.
Utah with the ball
(Opponent-adjusted, per-play rankings via Pick Six Previews)
Utah offense (2023):
Colorado defense (2023):
Colorado's struggles continue on this side of the ball, as the past four weeks have been a total defensive collapse. They are averaging a -190 yardage margin per game over that span, with the defense allowing 443 per game and a high 6.6 yards per play.
Utah needs to get a faster, more efficient start to the game. The 23-yard first quarter last week dug them too big of a hole. It forced Andy Ludwig to toss out the normal game plan and made Utah go pass-heavy. Quarterback Bryson Barnes attempted 53 passes. Fifty three.
This another favorable matchup for Utah, as Colorado places in the bottom 10 of almost all of my statistical categories on defense. Utah will be able to establish a consistent run game, which in turn will open up passing lanes for Barnes. I've been impressed the past few games with the emergence of outside receiver Devaughn Vele and expect him to cash in a score Saturday.
Game prediction
I fully trust coach Kyle Whittingham, his staff, and his player leadership to refocus after the blowout loss, and to send off their two-time Pac-12 champion seniors the right way.
It's been a long journey to this point — their final Pac-12 game — but I've been impressed with Utah's consistent program build since they made the jump up from the Mountain West. Two Pac-12 titles in the final three years of the 100+ year old conference is quite the testament to Utah Football.
Utah 38 | Colorado 17
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Brett Ciancia
Brett Ciancia is the owner of Pick Six Previews, a college football preview magazine graded as the "Most Accurate Season Preview" since 2012 (via Stassen). Ciancia was named a Heisman Trophy voter in 2019 and was invited to the FWAA's All-America Team selection committee in 2020.
