Premier League’s Tightest Start In Years Offers Hope For Tottenham Hotspur, Manchester United
It's often said that the Premier League table starts to take shape after ten games. That's not the case this season.
With eleven matches played heading into the November international break, there's only one point separating Chelsea in third from Aston Villa in ninth.
Over the past five seasons, that gap after eleven games has been an average of 6.4 points.
Further down the table, Manchester United, whose miserable start to the season led to head coach Eric Ten Hag losing his job, are only four points behind Chelsea. Incoming boss Ruben Amorim certainly won't be writing off this season just yet!
That gap in previous seasons was around ten points.
With almost nothing separating the sides between third and 13th, other factors could be more useful in analyzing where in the table a team might be at Christmas, let alone at the end of the season.
Based on Opta's statistics for the first ten games , out of the teams from third to 13th, Chelsea, Newcastle United and Brighton and Hove Albion had the toughest fixtures. Nottingham Forest, Aston Villa and Manchester City had the easiest first ten fixtures.
Given that the next run of fixtures will be roughly opposite as the teams who've had easier games will have the hard games coming up, it is likely that Newcastle will rise up the table at the expense of Forest, while Chelsea could emerge as Liverpool's main title contender if the Blues keep up their early season form.
Expected goals is often criticized as games are won and lost by actual goals, but when the league table is as close as it is, xG does have a role to play in looking at who is overperforming or underperforming.
The current table based on expected goals has Fulham in second place behind Liverpool. Fulham's strong performance is down to having a solid backline, which has the second-best expected goals against. Currently seventh in the league, Fulham's xG suggests it could be a season to remember at Craven Cottage, especially if Fulham's strikers can start converting their chances.
Nottingham Forest's high position in the table might be partly down to an extremely kind run of fixtures at the start of the season, but the types of goals scored and conceded is positive reading for the Tricky Trees. Forest's weakness last season was set pieces – the Reds scored just 7 goals and conceded 22 from set plays, but has already managed five set piece goals so far this season, conceding just two. Forest had the most goals from counterattacks last season but has just one counterattack goal this campaign. Expect this number to increase as Forest uses counterattacking tactics against the league's stronger teams over the coming weeks.
Chelsea's goalkeeper Robert Sanchez is often seen as a weak link in the team, but based on expected goals, the Blues' defense would have conceded at least four more goals than it actually has this season, so perhaps Sanchez deserves more credit than he's been getting. Head coach Enzo Maresca will have to cut down on the number and quality of chances conceded for Chelsea to maintain its strong start to the season.
Spurs are fourth based on the xG table, often coming out on the wrong side of close games this season. Ange Postecoglou's side has had the second-most shots per game this season, and has conceded the second fewest shots per game, so there is hope for the North London side, although a tough run of fixtures means it'll be hard for Tottenham to gain much ground before Christmas.
Manchester United's revival appears to have already started. With a new head coach coming in, it would be meaningless to make predictions based on United's current statistics, but should United get good results against Ipswich Town and Everton in the next two Premier League games, then the league table will look a lot more positive for the Red side of Manchester.
