Pressing Questions: How does the CFP committee view Florida State after Jordan Travis' injury, where does Texas A&M job rank in the SEC?
In the latest mailbag, how will the CFP committee view Florida State in light of Jordan Travis’ injury? Where does Texas A&M rank as a job in the SEC and more. Plus, what is the matchup to watch this weekend in Ohio State-Michigan?
As always, you can submit a question via my internet mailbox at [email protected] or send a DM/Tweet reply .
This week’s questions...
Will the playoff committee punish Florida State for the Jordan Travis injury? Just last season, had the same record as Alabama with a head-to-head win and the committee put the Vols behind them because of the injury to Hendon Hooker . Why wouldn’t they do the same with FSU? — Nick
Did the committee rank the Vols behind Alabama because of Hooker’s injury or because Tennessee had just been housed 63-38 to a mediocre South Carolina team?
As for Florida State, all this concern trolling over whether the Seminoles are going to get screwed by the committee totally ignores both reality and history. FSU dropped to No. 5 in the rankings on Tuesday night — not a surprise after Washington added another Top 15 win to its resume by beating Oregon State in Corvallis last weekend . Right now, we have five undefeated Power 5 teams, but one of Ohio State and Michigan are going to lose Saturday, opening up a spot in the four-team field.
Then there’s precedent: All we have to do is look at 2014 Ohio State to see how the committee dealt with a playoff-caliber team losing their starting quarterback.
The loss of Jordan Travis absolutely sucks. It sucks for the player — a sixth-year senior who has worked tirelessly to improve to get to this point — and it sucks for the team. But if Florida State beats Florida on Saturday, and then wins the ACC Championship, it’s in the 2023 College Football Playoff. I’d say its seeding could be affected, but FSU isn’t likely to be higher than No. 4 anyway with its lack of marquee wins against a watered-down ACC.
So can Tate Rodemaker be the ‘Noles version of Cardale Jones? That’s the real question.
Where does Texas A&M rank among SEC jobs? What about nationally? — Brian
In the new 2024 SEC? Around 5th or 6th.
Despite all the Aggies’ money, resources, and strong recruiting footprint, Texas A&M is not a better job than Georgia , Alabama , LSU or Texas.
If we’re talking fancy neighborhoods, Texas A&M has a mansion similar in size to Florida or Oklahoma — and both have real arguments as to being better jobs. Nationally, it’s behind Ohio State for sure, too.
Lots of folks want to talk about the potential of the Texas A&M job. And that’s true. But it is not some add water, instant success gig like what Kirby Smart inherited at Georgia, or even what Urban Meyer had at UF in the mid-aughts.
Texas A&M hasn’t won anything of substance in 25 years. Its last national title was over 80 years ago. AD Ross Bjork is adamant that Texas A&M is “not an 8-4 job,” and he’s right — the Aggies are averaging just over 7 wins over the last 20 seasons. That doesn’t mean they can’t overcome their poor history, but there are legitimately structural issues that have held the program back.
All these top schools can claim they just need to land the right coach to win. Well, Texas A&M hasn’t done that in decades. The money has been there. It hasn’t mattered. The players are right in their backyard. It hasn’t mattered. They’ve hired coaches who at the time were seen as home runs. It hasn’t mattered.
It’s easy to say they just need to hire the right guy. But if it was so easy you’d think the program would’ve done it by now.
I know Michigan’s offensive line has won the Joe Moore Award the last two seasons, but are we sure they can block Ohio State this weekend? — Mike
It’s the biggest matchup in “The Game” in my eyes. The difference in the last two seasons has been the Wolverines’ ability to physically punish Ohio State’s front seven.
In 2021, Michigan ran all over Ohio State (297 yards). Last season, the Wolverines relied on explosive plays but still managed to bomb the Buckeyes over the top (278 passing yards) and with long runs (252 total rushing yards).
This is a differently-looking Ohio State front, though. It’s a veteran, deep and more seasoned unit. J.T. Tuimoloau Jack Sawyer, Caden Curry Kenyatta Jackson all provide pressure off the edge ‚ with all four players capable of holding up against the run, too. Tyleik Williams has been one of the best defensive tackles in the country this season (11 TFLs) and Mike Hall is a load in the middle at nose tackle.
This group is going to give Michigan fits at times, especially considering the Wolverines have shown some warts up front in recent weeks. With Drake Nugent and guards Zak Zinter Trevor Keegan , it will be strength-on-strength inside but the concern is can Michigan hold up at tackle?
They’re a bit banged up, although left tackle LaDarius Henderson is expected to return to action this weekend. Right tackle Kareem Barnhart really struggled against Penn State’s edge rushers — so much so that Michigan opted to simply stop throwing the ball.
That’s not an option if the Wolverines want to beat Ohio State, so Michigan better hope it shores up its protection issues because Tuimoloau, Williams & Co., have shown they can wreck a game.
So while many are focused on the quarterbacks and skill-players, whoever wins the line of scrimmage will determine the outcome Saturday in Ann Arbor.
Can we get a deep dive to the advance stats of what Mike Bobo has done this year at Georgia? — Chris
I wrote about Mike Bobo making his case as the deserved frontrunner for the 2023 Broyles Award in the latest Week 12 Stock Report , but let’s dive deeper under the hood to look at just how impressive Georgia’s offense has been under a guy who was seen as a very underwhelming hire this offseason.
The Bulldogs rank in the Top 5 nationally in scoring and yards per play. They have the best 3rd-down offense in the country.
But what about the advanced stats? How does this offense — with Carson Beck , Brock Bowers and a host of other skill-talent — stack up to the rest of the teams in the nation? What about UGA’s offense in 2022 under Todd Monken, which many considered the best in program history?
Georgia’s offense currently ranks No. 5 in Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings. Last season, even after dropping 65 on TCU in the title game, the Bulldogs finished 11th. In Brian Fremeau’s FEI Ratings, UGA’s offense checks in at No. 4 through 12 weeks.
Most of the other metrics are nearly identical, too. In 2022, Georgia had the nation’s No. 4 success rate (49.9%). Right now, it’s No. 5 nationally — at 49.3%. The Bulldogs are actually slightly more efficient running the ball this season (No. 7 in success rate), but they simply aren’t running it quite as often. They had the nation’s No. 1 passing success rate in 2022, and this season they sit at No. 4.
Their total EPA (expected points added) was better in 2022, only their EPA/Game is actually slightly up this season. The Bulldogs remain an elite pass-blocking offense, with one of the lowest sack rates in the country.
So add it all up and the data tells us what our eyes are saying, too: Mike Bobo is commanding one of the most efficient, dominant offenses in the country. He’s done a great job game-planning around Beck’s strengths and making sure he’s involving all of Georgia’s weapons. It took a few weeks for the unit to gel (injuries, inexperience certainly played some factors), but it’s been impressive to see the product come together.
