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Preview and Predictions for MLB's Free-Agent Starting Pitching Market
T.Davis2 hr ago
- Patrick Smith/ The free-agent market for the 2024-25 MLB offseason is well-supplied with starting pitching. And for that, teams should be thanking their lucky stars. This year was a notoriously rough one for starters. They experienced a widespread breakdown that was impossible to hide, whether we're talking the regular season or the postseason . For MLB, fixing the problem is going to be a long, drawn-out process. For its teams, though, at least there's plenty of help to turn to in the meantime. We're going to take a broad look at the market for starters. Most players will be distributed into seven self-explanatory brackets, in which they'll be presented in alphabetical order. After that, the top five available pitchers will get their own sections. To make things interesting, each player will get a prediction for both his next team and his contract. These are all speculative, though some are more informed than others.
- Alex Trautwig/WBCI/MLB via innosuke Ogasawara Whichever MLB team signs Ogasawara will have to pay a posting fee to the Chunichi Dragons. Those rates can get quite high, but it will only be 20 percent of the lefty's contract in the event that he signs for less than $25 million. While Ogasawara is a young hurler who clearly has good control, he wasn't much of a strikeout artist even before he fanned only 13.6 percent of the batters he faced in 2024. That would have ranked dead-last among MLB hurlers.RHP Tomoyuki Sugano Unlike Ogasawara, Sugano is not heading to MLB via the posting system. He's an unrestricted free agent, and a compelling one given that he is a two-time winner of Japan's Sawamura Award. The righty's age will restrict his earning potential, but he's another guy with impeccable command and his stuff passes the smell test better than that of Ogasawara. He throws six different pitches , including a splitter with legit swing-and-miss promise.
- Chris Coduto/RHP Michael Soroka Soroka got Rookie of the Year and Cy Young Award votes as a mere 21-year-old in 2019. Then he barely pitched for four seasons and couldn't even hack it as a starter for the White Sox in 2024. However, something happened when Soroka shifted into a role as a multi-inning fireman. He got really good, posting a 2.75 ERA and whiffing 39 percent of the batters he faced. Given that and his youth, a bet on him is a bet worth taking.RHP Spencer Turnbull Turnbull's career took a turn for the worse not long after he threw a no-hitter on May 18, 2021. He made just three more starts that year, and he's since made just 14 starts over the last three years. Injuries will do that. And yet, Turnbull was excellent in posting a 1.67 ERA as a starter in April. And by one metric , his stuff peaked this year. He's worth a gander for teams that wouldn't need to expect too many innings from him.RHP Trevor Williams If nothing else, Williams is a potential source of innings. Prior to battling injuries this year, he made 30 starts and posted 144.1 innings in 2023. Williams was, of course, quite good when he was able to take the hill this year. Probably unsustainably so, but he did place more trust in a sweeper that held hitters to a . 135 average . As such, he gives teams qualities to gamble on.
- Joe Sargent/RHP Kyle Gibson Only Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole have pitched more innings than Gibson over the last 11 seasons. So he has that going for him, which helps distract from how he's been a below average pitcher (i.e., 93 ERA+ ) for his career. Gibson fits best as a back-end guy, preferably for a team with a solid infield defense. To the tune of a 50.1 GB% , his primary mode of procuring outs involves getting hitters to put the ball on the ground.RHP Michael Lorenzen It says a lot about the state of starting pitching that a guy with 283.1 innings over the last two seasons looks like an iron man. But that's no knock on Lorenzen, who can notably function as a starter or as a reliever. He can have an iffy relationship with the strike zone, but his best quality is knowing which of his many pitches is working at any moment. He has seven, with his changeup (+9) and four-seamer (+5) providing the most run value in 2024.RHP Lance Lynn Lynn has had injury issues in two of the last three seasons, including with a wobbly right knee that ultimately ended his 2024 campaign early. Between that and his age, his workload potential doesn't go as high as it used to. He's rarely not steady when he's on the mound, however, and even declining velocity isn't killing his four-seam fastball . It had a plus-16 run value this year even as it sat at 92.3 mph.LHP Martín Pérez Pérez was an All-Star amid a 2022 season in which he logged 196.1 innings with a 2.89 ERA. It's an outlier relative to the rest of his career, but we're still talking about a guy who's handled 276.2 innings over the last two years. The lefty prefers ground balls by way of a career 48.7 GB% . So if a team with a quality infield needs a No. 5-type starter, it would be do well to give him a call.RHP Colin Rea Rea is fresh off ranking second on the Milwaukee Brewers in innings. He did so with characteristically strong control, placing in the 81st percentile for walk rate. The long ball is an issue for Rea, but perhaps less so if he lands with a team that has a more forgiving home stadium. Not every team matching that description has a spot for him, but at least one does at the back end of its rotation.
- John Cordes/Icon Sportswire via LHP Clayton Kershaw Kershaw has declined his $10 million option for 2025, but Los Angeles Dodgers fans need not worry. He didn't sound ready to walk away when he spoke at the club's World Series championship celebration: The future Hall of Famer is not the pitcher he once was, but he can have a relatively normal offseason after undergoing shoulder surgery last winter. The Dodgers might even anticipate 100-odd innings and an ERA in the 2.00s, a la what they got from him in 2022 and 2023.RHP Charlie Morton It feels like Morton has been on the verge of retiring for years, but he's still not ready yet. Per ESPN's Jeff Passan , the veteran righty intends to return for his 18th season in 2025. This doesn't necessarily guarantee a fifth go-round with the Atlanta Braves, but they could certainly use him. With Max Fried also a free agent and Spencer Strider in need of more time to recover from elbow surgery, there's a spot for Morton in the rotation.
- Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire via RHP Shane Bieber Bieber looked better than ever in his first two starts of 2024, but then he had to go under the knife for Tommy John surgery . He likely won't return until midway through 2025. Still, teams should see signing the 2020 AL Cy Young Award winner as an opportunity to have a No. 1 for half a year. Even when he was diminished in 2022 and 2023, Bieber still offered strong control and an array of nasty breaking stuff to keep hitters off-balance.LHP Matthew Boyd Boyd was one of the guys the Guardians called on to fill in for Bieber, and he did so better than even they might have expected. He allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven of his eight starts, followed by 11 innings of one-run ball in the playoffs. The lefty hasn't topped 100 innings since 2019, so expectations must be checked in that regard. But if nothing else, he offers a slider that drew a 44.9 percent whiff rate in 2024.RHP Alex Cobb Sticking with the theme of fill-ins for Bieber in Cleveland, Cobb made a small, but notable dent after coming over from the San Francisco Giants in August. He even started two games in October, albeit to limited success. After an injury-marred season , Cobb's main priority for 2025 will be staying healthy. If he can, he might channel the strong work (301 % ) he did in 2022 and 2023.RHP Max Scherzer Scherzer's body just didn't cooperate this year. He started late because of back surgery, and he was then sidetracked by various ailments before he finally shut it down early in September. Even before then, though, the future Hall of Famer had made it clear he's not done yet. He's worth taking a chance on just because of who he is, and then there's the prospect that he could bounce back following an offseason in which he won't be recovering from surgery.RHP Justin Verlander Speaking of fellow Hall of Famers who stared mortality in the face this year, Verlander began 2024 on the IL and never got into a groove after he returned. His fastball ( 93.5 mph ) and contact rate ( 81.0 percent ) both took turns for the worse. The righty nonetheless believes he has " a lot more to give ." There won't be much downside in a team paying to find out, though said team had better have other options lined up in the event that this year really was the beginning of the end for Verlander.
- Jim McIsaac/RHP Walker Buehler This year was a disaster for Buehler until, suddenly, it wasn't. He came up huge in his last three playoff outings for the Dodgers, pitching 10 scoreless innings and ultimately throwing the pitch that sealed the deal on their title. It was a taste of the good old days for the two-time Tommy John survivor, and his earning power should benefit accordingly. It's even possible to imagine him scoring a multi-year deal from a team in need of a high-upside starter.RHP Andrew Heaney Heaney had an up-and-down debut season for the Texas Rangers in 2023, but it culminated in him earning a W in Game 4 of the World Series. He built on that in 2024, providing valuable innings in a rotation hit hard by injuries. Any guy who can go five innings per start while punching out a batter per inning is worth a look. And if a team can get Heaney to replace his iffy slider ( -13 value for 2023-24) with something better, there could be real upside here.RHP Nick Martinez Martinez is an interesting case. He isn't a "starter" in a classic sense, and he'll be tied to draft-pick compensation if he rejects a $21.05 million qualifying offer from the Cincinnati Reds. He's a solid upside play, though. He's a control artist who stifles exit velocity ( 94th percentile in 2024), and he had a 2.18 ERA away from Great American Ball Park this season. If anything, the Reds should be hoping he accepts the QO.RHP Frankie Montas Montas had a rough time as a New York Yankee, falling flat after a 2022 trade and then missing almost all of 2023 after shoulder surgery . This year wasn't quite a return to form. He did, however, fan 29 percent of the batters he faced after going from Cincinnati to Milwaukee. He gained 1.1 mph on his fastball, though he also featured his sinker and cutter more than his four-seamer. A team should want to run with those improvements.RHP Nick Pivetta Pivetta is another interesting case because of the qualifying offer , of which he was perhaps the most surprising recipient. At first glance, $21.05 million is a lot of money to risk on a guy with a career ERA+ of 92. Stuff-wise , however, Pivetta is as good as any other pitcher in baseball. His problem is the long ball, as he's given up 1.5 home runs per nine innings for his career. Leaving Boston could solve that, but one could understand if he'd rather not risk it.
- Harry How/RHP Nathan Eovaldi It wasn't a given that Eovaldi would become a free agent this winter, but he logged enough innings to trigger an opt-out. Not bad for a two-time Tommy John survivor in his mid-30s. The quality of his stuff is trending south , but he's still sitting in the mid 90s and throwing plenty of strikes. Those qualities plus a strong postseason track record make him a hard guy for the Rangers to lose.LHP Yusei Kikuchi Kikuchi's 2024 season got off a rough start in Toronto. Through 22 starts, he had a 4.75 ERA and had given up 125 hits in 115.2 innings. Then the Houston Astros got their hooks in him and, well, the rest is history. He finished with a 2.70 ERA, 76 strikeouts, 14 walks and only 42 hits allowed in 60 innings. They turned his slider into one of the best breaking balls in MLB, and now he stands to profit.LHP Sean Manaea Manaea has the option of accepting the qualifying offer , but the Mets shouldn't count on it. He was one of the top pitchers in all of MLB this season, and especially amid a 20-start run after June 14 in which he had a 3.05 ERA. The sheer number of different looks Manaea can give hitters is extraordinary. He throws six pitches and from all sorts of release points . It isn't a foolproof methodology for dominance, but it definitely doesn't make adjusting to him easy.LHP José Quintana Quintana seemed cooked as a viable starter back in 2021, but so much for that. In the last three years, he's made 76 starts and been highly effective with a 3.39 ERA. The lefty's upside is not to be mistaken for a top-of-the-rotation starter. Yet even at his age, he's a solid bet for 150-plus innings that will mostly be filled with ground balls. He notably landed in the 79th percentile with a 48.2 GB% this year.RHP Luis Severino Severino would arguably be wise to accept the qualifying offer . He had a good year in 2024, but it came on the heels of a ruinous five-season stretch in which he appeared in only 45 games because of injuries . It seems doubtful he will actually accept the QO, though. He's been born again at 30, notably with a more balanced pitch mix that now features a sweeper that held hitters to a .139 average. He should want to market himself as a top-of-the-rotation type.
- Harry How/Age: What Makes Him a Top Target After finishing fourth in the NL Cy Young Award voting in 2019, Jack Flaherty spent a few years in the wilderness before emerging again this year. He ranked eighth among starters in strikeout-to-walk ratio, with strikeout and whiff rates in the top 10 percent among all pitchers. And though his average fastball was a relatively modest 93.3 mph , his curveball was among the best of the year with a +12 run value . Flaherty's return to form wasn't totally complete. His back caused him problems in the middle of the season. And in the playoffs for the Dodgers, he had two good starts and three bad ones. Still, these things shouldn't hurt him too much on the market. Effective starters like him are scarce just in general, and he has the advantage of not being tied to a qualifying offer . Even a nine-figure deal seems possible for the righty, though it's just as easy to imagine him more so in the high-eights.Potential Fits: Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Yankees, Washington Nationals, Los Angeles Angels There haven't been many solid rumors concerning Flaherty, but ESPN's Jeff Passan is the one who floated New York and Washington as good fits for him. The player himself, meanwhile, doesn't want to leave Los Angeles if he can help it. If that can be taken to mean the area more broadly, then the Angels fit him just as well as the Dodgers. And between the two, the Halos certainly need him more.Signs with Los Angeles Angels for 4 years, $88 million
- Sean M. Haffey/Age: What Makes Him a Top Target There's a case that Sasaki belongs higher on this list, but it requires assuming his upside is a sure thing. By contrast, teams already know what Max Fried is capable of. Even though he's a two-time All-Star and World Series champion, he might still be underrated. He's been 51 percent better than the average pitcher over the last five seasons, and that is over a sturdy 659 innings. He doesn't hurt himself with walks and doesn't make it easy for batters to do damage. He's typically good for a strikeout per inning, and he was in the 96th percentile for ground balls and the 95th for exit velocity this year. Fried has had Tommy John surgery and has also battled forearm issues , so his record isn't spotless. All the same, he's a No. 1 like few other pitchers are a No. 1 right now.Potential Fits: Boston Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays, Atlanta Braves, New York Mets Jon Heyman of has linked Boston and Baltimore to Fried, with Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet doing the honors for Toronto. Conceivably, he could stick in the NL East with either Atlanta (albeit not via the qualifying offer ) or New York. The Red Sox make sense for Fried on paper, but they've had an aversion to QO-linked players in recent winters. This could mean an opening for the Orioles and Blue Jays, though one of them has more money to spend.Signs with Toronto Blue Jays for 6 years, $160 million
- Brandon Sloter/Image Of Sport/Age: What Makes Him a Top Target After winning his second Cy Young Award, Blake Snell was supposed to strike it rich on last winter's market. Except... he didn't . That is water under the bridge now. His value teetered early in 2024, but he rescued it with a dominant finish for the San Francisco Giants. Snell's last 14 starts featured a career-best 15-strikeout game and a no-hitter , and ultimately yielded a 1.23 ERA and 114 strikeouts in 80.1 innings. To be sure, the lefty still comes with question marks. He's more of a six-inning guy than one who threatens to go seven-plus every time out. And despite a lack of major injuries, he only has two 30-start seasons to show for nine years in the bigs. On the plus side, this season reinforced that Snell is as dominant as any pitcher when he's on. And unlike last winter, he doesn't have to worry about the qualifying offer dragging down his value.Potential Fits: San Francisco Giants, New York Yankees, New York Mets, Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers, Baltimore Orioles, Toronto Blue Jays, Texas Rangers This long list of suitors is courtesy of Feinsand and Katie Woo of The Athletic. And since Snell could sign for $100 million less than his rumored $240 million asking price from last winter, it might actually be too short. But to pick just one, Boston is a team to watch. Its rotation needs an ace, and it should suit them that A) Snell isn't tied to draft compensation and B) he likely won't need a long-term deal.Signs with Boston Red Sox for 4 years, $140 million
- G Fiume/Age: What Makes Him a Top Target Perhaps we can quibble about where other players belong on this list, but not here. Not now. It's all there in Corbin Burnes' record since August 2020. That was when he went back to starting after a stint in Milwaukee's bullpen, and the result has been him becoming one of the most valuable starters in MLB. Granted, Burnes is not the same guy now as he was when he won the NL Cy Young Award in 2021. His tendency for strikeouts has been steadily declining, and this year finally saw him strike out less than a batter per inning. He also served up hard contact, including a career-high 37 barrels . Yet he still had a whiff rate in the 71st percentile despite his decline in strikeouts, and his walk rate (80th percentile) and exit velocity (81st percentile) were likewise safely above average. Another thing about Burnes is that he's never been on the IL with an arm injury. That won't last forever, but it basically makes him a pitching superman in the meantime.Potential Fits: Baltimore Orioles, San Francisco Giants, Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox, New York Mets It won't be via the qualifying offer , but Burnes returning to the Orioles can't be ruled out. Passan puts them, the Giants and the Blue Jays in the mix, with the Yankees and Red Sox also in courtesy of Heyman and Pete Abraham of the . The Mets are more of speculative possibility, albeit an obvious one. Their front office is run by former Brewers GM David Stearns, and owner Steve Cohen could have enough for Burnes even if he's able to sign Juan Soto first.Signs with New York Mets for 7 years, $210 million
Read the full article:https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10143221-preview-and-predictions-for-mlbs-free-agent-starting-pitching-market
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